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Who will ''win'' the next election? Watch

  • View Poll Results: Who will win a majority in the 2015 election?
    Conservative Party
    15.38%
    Liberal Democrats
    1.18%
    Labour Party
    51.48%
    UKIP
    6.51%
    Green Party
    1.78%
    BNP
    1.78%
    No Majority
    21.89%

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    (Original post by FelixTheKat)
    If Scotland gets independence, Labour will lose much of its safe seats. This will result in Conservatives splitting between Cameron and New-Conservatives, and True-Blue Tories and Libertarians joining UKIP.

    If not, a Labour majority in parliment, backed by a few Greens and more Respect gains, mainly in Birmingham
    If by some fluke Scotland goes independent, the Conservatives get a majority overnight, and using their new found majority pass the new Constituencies .
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    Most likely Labour will win a small but workable overall majority but they will struggle in power and may well be a one term government, although they could end up having a second term if the Tories implode.

    I think a lot of Tory and UKIP supporters are going to get a shock but the Conservatives are going to lose office. The problem for the activists and supporters is amongst their own Tory/UKIP circles they all think the same, and the right wing papers they read all say the same thing "nobody will ever trust Labour again they ruined Britain with immigrants etc" but out in the general population most people do not like the Tories. The fact UKIP is splitting some of their core support off only compounds the problem.

    There is not much to get excited about Labour at the moment under Ed Miliband but with a likely decline of the Lib Dem vote with all the outraged student / anti-Iraq war protest vote / Guardian reading middle class professionals deserting them looking for a home, they aren't going to find that home in the Conservative party, they will either go Labour or Green.
    I'm really not sure about this. I'm not a Tory, but I think it's mistaken to think 'most people don't like the Tories'. It's quite easy to get this impression if you read the Guardian a bit much, or you spend too much time on Twitter, or if you're involved in student politics (invariably left-wing).

    All the Tories really need is the economy to turn a corner, then they will be in with a serious chance.
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    (Original post by chriswalker)
    I'm really not sure about this. I'm not a Tory, but I think it's mistaken to think 'most people don't like the Tories'. It's quite easy to get this impression if you read the Guardian a bit much, or you spend too much time on Twitter, or if you're involved in student politics (invariably left-wing).

    All the Tories really need is the economy to turn a corner, then they will be in with a serious chance.
    They will need the economy to do more than "turn a corner".

    In 2010 the economy was in tatters, Gordon Brown was unpopular, Labour were at a low ebb, really that should have been one of those moments like 1997 when there was a major shift of power and a 100 odd majority.

    Instead they struggled home and needed the Lib Dems to form a government. Now if they are going to do better next time, they have to widen their appeal and take votes from parties that didn't vote for them before.

    Like you say above about reading the Guardian, going on Twitter, being involved in student politics, these are the people that vote for other parties, what have the Tories done to attract their votes? All they have done is moved more to the right, but they are also being outflanked on the right by UKIP, so they are fighting to hold their existing base.

    There are only two years now before the next election and realistically we are not going to have had a recovery in that time unless there is a significant change of policy. The Tories know this - the campaign in the next election will be a negative campaign not a positive one, ie:
    - the economy is bad because of Labour
    - we haven't turned it round because it was so bad under Labour
    - its also bad because of all the immigrants, we have reduced immigration
    - we have reduced benefits
    - we have cut police, army and other public sector numbers

    all of these may appeal to existing Tory voters but they are not good ways of getting people to switch from Labour / Lib Dem to the Tories.
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    I think labour will win, even though I want the conservatives to win
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    (Original post by chriswalker)
    I'm really not sure about this. I'm not a Tory, but I think it's mistaken to think 'most people don't like the Tories'. It's quite easy to get this impression if you read the Guardian a bit much, or you spend too much time on Twitter, or if you're involved in student politics (invariably left-wing).

    All the Tories really need is the economy to turn a corner, then they will be in with a serious chance.
    Your both right really.

    People don't hate the Tories per say but as Magic says the Tories have a big problem in not attracting new voters (the C1's i believe Thatcher and Blair referred to them as) and while you get a lot of naive people on here thinking that all they need to is stop Ukip, what they fail to realise is that a good proportion of the vote Ukip has been getting is that as a protest against all the other parties as well and these people will never vote Tory, on top of that many of the Tory defectors to Ukip may simply be tempted just not to vote at all so it turns out that actually by moving to the right the Tories won't gain all that much whilst at the same time the moderate floaters in the English Tory-Labour marginals (mainly center-right and socially liberal) will look at a party spouting right wing rhetoric and vote Labour, we've seen how the voters reacted to such rhetoric in the 01 and 05 elections.

    The Tories have the message right on business and tax and the like but socially you can only go so far before people turn away.
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    (Original post by billydisco)
    unless I have missed something for the last 3 years, what exactly have they done to this country?

    I think you're probably referring to Labour's rape of 1997-2010 darling...
    (Original post by Mockery)
    Someone has already asked you but since you haven't replied I'll ask again, what have they done to this country? :lol:
    Well the Tories have cut a lot of public services, increased university fees, increased taxes, and other things that people I know don't agree with. But to be honest I think Labour are bad as well, I don't really see how they have helped the working class.

    Can't the public just make a party with what they want?
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    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    Well the Tories have cut a lot of public services
    Hardly noticeable ones..... and thats what you do when you have no money.


    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    increased university fees
    How else can universities afford to compete with the US ones? It was Labour who wanted to send every idiot to university. We should have fewer universities and then you wouldnt need to increase fees.


    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    increased taxes
    You mean VAT? If so I never understood that one either.....

    (Original post by RemiMarcelle)
    But to be honest I think Labour are bad as well, I don't really see how they have helped the working class.
    No but they help the (not)working class!
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    Labour won't win anything in the state their in.. Things would be different with David but Ed is a useless leader.
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    (Original post by billydisco)
    Hardly noticeable ones..... and thats what you do when you have no money.
    Like the police?
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    Like the police?
    If the Lib Dems hadn't blocked further benefit cuts the police wouldn't have been cut.

    Also, just because the police funding was cut, how does that automatically imply the police cannot do their job? What if they were over-funded to begin with? The NHS could be cut by 10% and still function correctly as there's so much crap!
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    the TSR Party!

    But in all seriousness, I think Labour will have a small majority come the next election.
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    (Original post by billydisco)
    Also, just because the police funding was cut, how does that automatically imply the police cannot do their job? What if they were over-funded to begin with?
    I think it is pushing it a bit to suggest that the police force was ever over funded.

    Fewer coppers can't be a good thing.
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    Too early to call, I reckon. If an election were held tomorrow, I would expect a Labour victory, with either a very slim majority or, more likely, a minority. My prediction for two 2015 would be roughly the same, but a lot can happen in two years.
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    Narrow Labour win if economy does not improve. Reduced share for the Libs but by no means decimated. UKIP will get one or two seats. Turnout steady or falls slightly despite poor economy and divisiveness. If economy improves, or Scotland by some miracle goes independent, Conservative win.

    (Original post by Hal.E.Lujah)
    Labour are going to last minute replace party leader (probably) and change the game.
    Why do you think so?
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    I think it is pushing it a bit to suggest that the police force was ever over funded.

    Fewer coppers can't be a good thing.
    Thats not true- I could sack all police personnel who do pointless jobs. So any police who are involved in diversity, I would sack. Is this going to affect frontline policing? No. Is it going to reduce the police costs? Yes
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    Labour will be in power, either with a majority or a coalition perhaps with the Lib Dems. They've already teamed up in Parliament on the subject of gay-marriage and press regulation.

    If Miliband takes Labour more right, into 'Blue Labour' territory, then, if he can actually get his act together it could be another 1997 in my opinion. Unless Clegg resigns and there's a LD leadership election, his party are not facing promising election prospects!

    Ultimately, as long as Labour pick their platform at the right time and hope for disaster for the government policy outcomes on the economy and Europe, thus both parties in govt will be hit back in the polls, then Labour look like they'll have a decent chance at a good, solid majority.

    The Tories will be, in my opinion, hit hard as many older, traditional conservatives will turn to UKIP. Then again, many traditional Labour socialists were expecting Miliband to move back left a little, to mop up the socialist vote; perhaps the Green's will take their votes instead!
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    (Original post by AverageExcellence)
    Labour won't win anything in the state their in.. Things would be different with David but Ed is a useless leader.
    Why so? I accept the media haven't been good for him, but surely David would be struggling more as leader, as a centrist (who is pretty much the same as Clegg anyway)?

    The best thing Labour can do for Labour's-sake is go socialist. Out of the two brothers, only Ed can provide that momentum. People are complaining that all parties are the same and that there is no radical alternative to the government's policies. I really do think that if Labour went semi-socialist, people would support them.

    For all we know 2015 could be re-run of 1979; a new radical party steps in, and 'saves Britain from collapse', as Cameron described Thatcher's leadership technique; but this time it's Labour. It was a similar thing in 1945, the country needed a fundamental change of direction, and it does now.
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    Lab/Lib coalition.

    For the last few decades we have been used to 18 hours of Tory government then 13 years of Labour but this is not the norm, for most of modern history it was common to see shorter governments. I think it only happened because of the special circumstances of the 1970s and the divisiveness of Thatcher. Winning a majority is actually very difficult.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Who will win? Presuming... someone will get a majority.
    If the Conservatives can pull the rabbit out of the hat and sort the mess that they are making slightly worse out, they will win otherwise it is likely to be Labour or a Coalition again.
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    52 deluded Labour supporters.

    Labour have never been so unelectable. Oh wait, yes they have, between 1979-1990; when a woman hated by half the country still managed to hold onto government against what can't really be termed as opposition.

    No big hitters, no policies, a lot of talk, not a lot of action. Shoddy politics (your wrong, were right, but we have nothing to back this up), a leader that looks like he couldn't fight his way out of a carrier bag, terrible front bench. The list goes on.

    Only people to vote for Labour will be my fellow northerners who are still so deluded with "Thatcher shut the mines."
 
 
 
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