Newcastle don't have a chance of fourth, especially if Cabaye does go, so let's ignore them.
I don't think Mata is anywhere near being enough for United. Rooney and RVP back would add a lot, but United were still really poor with them playing at the start of the season. With Carrick out now, I think the midfield will continue to be too much of an issue.
I don't know a lot about Everton, so it's hard to say. They seem to have a decent first XI but not much beyond that, so I suppose it just depends if they can keep them all fit. Plenty of FA cup matches to rest players in and maybe some international weeks though, so I wouldn't worry about them burning out.
Spurs are very likely to do it imo. Lots of people are attributing their form under Sherwood to what typically happens when a new manager comes in, but they have a really good side that hasn't been performing up until now. There are still plenty of players who have yet to show us what they're capable of (I'm thinking Lamela & Chadli here. Paulinho and Capoue haven't really done anything of note either, but I don't think the former will). They really need to start playing Vertonghen at CB with Chiriches, dropping the awful Dawson. Problem with that is that they need a LB, and Walker is pretty ****ty when it comes to defending too, so they're quite exposed on the wings. Eriksen has really got going lately, living up to what we've seen him do at Ajax but still has a lot more to offer.
Liverpool were my bet a few months ago, but now I'm not so sure. I really, really like what Rodgers has done with the side; the awful team he inherited from Dalglish has now become this. My concern for them is the injury situation. Lucas is now out, and I don't know how they're going to handle that. Plus the entire defence has been destroyed my injuries, which is a lot to cope with. I had expected them to be active in this transfer window, and it did look they were going to get Salah. I don't think that that was what they needed when you consider the injuries though, and a lot depends on how soon they get back.
How I see it finishing:
4. Spurs
5. Liverpool
6. United
7. Everton
As for who'll win, I said Chelsea at the start of the season but City have convinced me now. City, Chelsea, Arsenal for me, with the latter even potentially being dragged into 4th place. I don't think Arsenal will be able to handle injuries to key positions, and it's likely that'll happen at some point.