The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Aph
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#41
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#41
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Where's that?
Me, Gloucester.
family, South Thanet. Home to the devil himself.
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Green_Pink
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#42
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#42
(Original post by Aph)
Me, Gloucester.
family, South Thanet. Home to the devil himself.
Lord Ashcroft had the Tories only 1% ahead in October there. With recent events I actually expect that may be the slightest of Labour leads right now. You certainly have a chance to kick them out there! The Greens won't be winning it, however.

South Thanet's of course very interesting. It's the seat I bring up with a couple of friends of mine who are effectively far-left socialists who support Labour "to keep the Tories out": would you support the Tories in South Thanet to keep Farage out? How far is too far with tactical voting when you end up voting for a party completely against your own principles? For some reason, I never quite get a straight answer to that one
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Aph
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#43
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#43
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Lord Ashcroft had the Tories only 1% ahead in October there. With recent events I actually expect that may be the slightest of Labour leads right now. You certainly have a chance to kick them out there! The Greens won't be winning it, however.

South Thanet's of course very interesting. It's the seat I bring up with a couple of friends of mine who are effectively far-left socialists who support Labour "to keep the Tories out": would you support the Tories in South Thanet to keep Farage out? How far is too far with tactical voting when you end up voting for a party completely against your own principles? For some reason, I never quite get a straight answer to that one
Yeah, kicking the Tories out is the one reason I'm tempted to vote labour over greens.

yeah, I'm hoping going down to nans I can convince her not to vote UKIP which every little helps.
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Green_Pink
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#44
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(Original post by Aph)
Yeah, kicking the Tories out is the one reason I'm tempted to vote labour over greens.

yeah, I'm hoping going down to nans I can convince her not to vote UKIP which every little helps.
I have the "luxury" if you can call it that of being able to vote just on principle since my vote's frankly pretty useless: my seats Labour and it looks certain to stay that way. If I lived in a Labour-Tory marginal I would be tempted to go Labour right now though: a Tory minority Government would be way too right-wing and authoritarian for my tastes, let alone if it was a coalition with UKIP or worse the DUP. As it stands though I won't be supporting either of them.

Aww, good luck with that! Still saddens me that the left's going to be watching the election results roll in and in some cases cheering Conservative holds, it still feels rather unnatural! Blasted kippers.
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Aph
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#45
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#45
(Original post by Green_Pink)
I have the "luxury" if you can call it that of being able to vote just on principle since my vote's frankly pretty useless: my seats Labour and it looks certain to stay that way. If I lived in a Labour-Tory marginal I would be tempted to go Labour right now though: a Tory minority Government would be way too right-wing and authoritarian for my tastes, let alone if it was a coalition with UKIP or worse the DUP. As it stands though I won't be supporting either of them.

Aww, good luck with that! Still saddens me that the left's going to be watching the election results roll in and in some cases cheering Conservative holds, it still feels rather unnatural! Blasted kippers.
Yeah, I wish I could do that I dislike miliband but I do like my labour candidate so it's not too bad.

i know what you mean but the Tories are the lesser of 2 evils unfortunately.
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Rakas21
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#46
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
"Coalition" was very interesting. I'm still of the opinion the best move for the real-life Lib Dems would've been to let a Conservative minority fall flat on its arse given what was on the table. Does Paddy's last minute intervention have any grounding in reality?

In other news: Hell Yes he can, as YouGov poll after the Non-Debates puts Ed Miliband on course not only for Downing Street but an effective majority with 323 seats. Will be very interesting to see if this trend is matched by other pollsters, but I think it does have a basis in reality.
Ignoring the fact that the Libs would have accomplished nothing, a second election would have been fairly certain to deliver a Tory majority. Cameron would have been able to say 'look at these partisan Liberals who were offered a deal, this is why you need to push us over the line' and more than that, the Tories were the only party with money for a second election.

The poll actually shows Labour only gaining 1% and the Tories losing 1% so he's not suddenly pulled 4% as the headline makes it looks like. Will be interesting to see if other pollsters find the same and whether the next debate changes anything.

At any rate, March was a very good polling month for the Tories in terms of movement in their direction albeit they've not pulled ahead of Labour on average yet (and may not now).
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Rakas21
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#47
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Interestingly my own seat only had a Labour lead of 8% in 2010 (was Tory from 83-97) but the backbench incumbent is stepping down and he'd had lower than average losses (8% from 97-10 vs the Labour average of 14%). I'd wager that Labour will hold with a reduced majority but the racist vote was about 7% in 2010 vs the national average of about 4% so Ukip will probably do relatively well here (lots of Pakistani immigrants here).

In terms of the makeup of the seat it's essentially made up of 6 council wards ranging from deprived to lower middle class. Two of the council wards (including my own) are Tory, one is Lib Dem and 3 are Labour although one of those previously had the BNP. Between a higher than average Ukip vote (probable) and an edge to Labour within the constituency at a local level they should hold it. Two of the three Labour areas are deprived, the other four wards are what i'd call lower middle class so fairly average in national terms aside from the fact that three are in Bradford and the other nice Labour one shares a border with an immigrant filled deprived ward so those factors explain the high racist vote in those 4 constituencies (mainly Muslim immigrants).

At university i have the privilege of having Rachel Reeves as an MP but she's never around. She did get 50% of the vote in 2010 though, albeit the racist vote at 9% should give Ukip an even larger vote share this election.

*Ukip are not racist but most of the BNP+Ukip vote in 2010 was.
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Green_Pink
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#48
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#48
(Original post by Rakas21)
Ignoring the fact that the Libs would have accomplished nothing, a second election would have been fairly certain to deliver a Tory majority. Cameron would have been able to say 'look at these partisan Liberals who were offered a deal, this is why you need to push us over the line' and more than that, the Tories were the only party with money for a second election.

The poll actually shows Labour only gaining 1% and the Tories losing 1% so he's not suddenly pulled 4% as the headline makes it looks like. Will be interesting to see if other pollsters find the same and whether the next debate changes anything.

At any rate, March was a very good polling month for the Tories in terms of movement in their direction albeit they've not pulled ahead of Labour on average yet (and may not now).
I could actually have seen it giving the Lib Dems a better chance. They'd have had the perfect excuses not to go in with the Tories - it would have meant betraying every student and student-to-be in the country, settling for a useless compromise on electoral reform, and abandoning the working poor with savage spending cuts and rises in VAT. Clegg could have gone back to the electorate, and said that the Lib Dems really are the party of principle, not of power - and that having turned down power once, returning more Lib Dem MPs this time will put them in an incredible position to demand real change, not the same old politics with a new tint. With that level of publicity I think the level of donations would be sufficient to challenge, and they may well have secured more seats and more importantly a position where the Lib-Lab deal was viable since Labour were much more open to negotiating significant policy change with them.
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barnetlad
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#49
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#49
Is decaffinated coffee available in the bar?
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Aph
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#50
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#50
(Original post by barnetlad)
Is decaffinated coffee available in the bar?
:goaway: real drinks only.
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PetrosAC
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#51
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#51
(Original post by barnetlad)
Is decaffinated coffee available in the bar?
You could always lobby for it

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Green_Pink
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#52
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#52
"If I was a young Muslim watching the social injustice in Gaza where 2,000 people died in a matter of weeks from Israeli bombings, the displacement of millions of people in Syria and the US using drone missiles to target terrorist suspects but killing innocent families, I’m sure I could be radicalised too." - John Prescott
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Aph
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#53
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#53
Good to see someone saying what I've been saying for so long now.
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Green_Pink
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#54
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#54
(Original post by Aph)
Good to see someone saying what I've been saying for so long now.
Just a shame he couldn't have had a few choice words in Tony's ear 15 years ago!
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Aph
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#55
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#55
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Just a shame he couldn't have had a few choice words in Tony's ear 15 years ago!
Yes!!! People need to start realising we are as much to blame as anybody else!!! We created the whole mess and trying to 'fix it' only makes it worse.
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PetrosAC
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#56
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#56
(Original post by Aph)
Yes!!! People need to start realising we are as much to blame as anybody else!!! We created the whole mess and trying to 'fix it' only makes it worse.
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Just a shame he couldn't have had a few choice words in Tony's ear 15 years ago!
I'd ridiculous that many people believe that the solution to the problem is pretty much the same way we created it in the first place.

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Aph
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#57
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#57
(Original post by PetrosAC)
I'd ridiculous that many people believe that the solution to the problem is pretty much the same way we created it in the first place.

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Including many people in the house... And your friend...

we do anything we are persecuting someone which does more damage, we should be Switzerland.
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username1524603
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#58
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#58
The argument is the same as the one made for the chicken and the egg. John Prescott seems to think Western aggression is acting as a marketing tool for extremists but Western aggression is in response to terrorism and extremism. The U.S. uses drones against terror suspects and Israel uses air strikes against Hamas, but the extremism existed for both countries to do what they are doing. The problem does not lie in preventing young people from being inspired, but in figuring out what caused the very first person to become an extremist.
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PetrosAC
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#59
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#59
(Original post by Aph)
Including many people in the house... And your friend...

we do anything we are persecuting someone which does more damage, we should be Switzerland.
James?

I think its quite clear bombing them isn't doing much help. But I guess most would argue that there isn't an obvious alternative apart from full-on war, which should obviously be avoided at all costs.

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Aph
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#60
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#60
(Original post by PetrosAC)
James?

I think its quite clear bombing them isn't doing much help. But I guess most would argue that there isn't an obvious alternative apart from full-on war, which should obviously be avoided at all costs.

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Yeah.

no, but it gives them the mandate to claim the west are attacking them. But a full-on war would be catastrophic.
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