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27 out of 28 economists polled said British economy will suffer by leaving EU watch

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    (Original post by BradleyLawrence)
    Where is your reply to the points i made regarding the level of problems econs face when making predictions?
    Apologise for being a stuck up prick and I might feel more inclined to take up some of your points. Talk to me as if I was some 15 year old kid whose knowledge of economics is limited to his GCSE text book and you can get rooted.

    I'm a 46 year old Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors and a lot of my work is in industrial economics. Treat me some dignity.
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    (Original post by BradleyLawrence)
    Mine has a watermark.
    So does this 10 pound note.
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    28 economists?! Wow! We better just finish up all of this nonsense and get back to normal because 27 economists said we'd be worse off.

    Lets ignore the massive social and political issues the EU brings with it in favour of 27 economists.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Apologise for being a stuck up prick and I might feel more inclined to take up some of your points. Talk to me as if I was some 15 year old kid whose knowledge of economics is limited to his GCSE text book and you can get rooted.

    I'm a 46 year old Fellow of the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors and a lot of my work is in industrial economics. Treat me some dignity.
    What the **** did you just ****ing say about me, you little *****? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Economics, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire UK armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the **** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my ****ing words. You think you can get away with saying that **** to me over the Internet? Think again, ****er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the UK and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re ****ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your ****ing tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will **** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re ****ing dead, kiddo

    I am so impressed by your achievements that it reminded me of a little meme, i edited it a little
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    (Original post by BradleyLawrence)
    What the **** did you just ****ing say about me, you little *****? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Economics, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire UK armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the **** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my ****ing words. You think you can get away with saying that **** to me over the Internet? Think again, ****er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the UK and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re ****ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your ****ing tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will **** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re ****ing dead, kiddo

    I am so impressed by your achievements that it reminded me of a little meme, i edited it a little
    Is gorilla warfare a new super secret form of guerilla warfare where you disguise yourself as a gorilla and take steroids to become as strong as a gorilla and then start punching people

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    (Original post by BradleyLawrence)
    What the **** did you just ****ing say about me, you little *****? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Economics, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire UK armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the **** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my ****ing words. You think you can get away with saying that **** to me over the Internet? Think again, ****er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the UK and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re ****ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your ****ing tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will **** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re ****ing dead, kiddo

    I am so impressed by your achievements that it reminded me of a little meme, i edited it a little
    It's guerilla warfare; not gorilla. Other than that; perfect!
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    (Original post by BradleyLawrence)
    What the **** did you just ****ing say about me, you little *****? I’ll have you know I graduated top of my class in Economics, and I’ve been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I’m the top sniper in the entire UK armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the **** out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my ****ing words. You think you can get away with saying that **** to me over the Internet? Think again, ****er. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the UK and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You’re ****ing dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that’s just with my bare hands. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little “clever” comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your ****ing tongue. But you couldn’t, you didn’t, and now you’re paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will **** fury all over you and you will drown in it. You’re ****ing dead, kiddo

    I am so impressed by your achievements that it reminded me of a little meme, i edited it a little
    I really, really, really like this pasta.
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    (Original post by JordanL_)
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

    Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?
    They all say it's going to harm the British economy. I'd like to know how?
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    (Original post by Josb)
    They all say it's going to harm the British economy. I'd like to know how?
    High uncertainty=lower investment both domestically and internationally until the uncertainty clears=short-medium term harm. Exactly the same way Scottish independence would have harmed the non Scottish economy despite a heavy load being taken off our shoulders.

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    (Original post by Unkempt_One)
    I would actually like to see a serious analysis of this question that goes further than "WEll 50% of our imports come from the EU and they'll stop forever and we'll broke rofl"
    It is very difficult to do a serious analysis because the effects are essentially a political rather than an economic issue.

    As somebody has said most of our trade is with a relatively few European countries, As no-one has said, most of the discussion has been about trade in goods whereas 40% of our exports are services.

    The issue does not really concern sheer size of the export or import markets but their elasticity; that is the extent to which each will change because of any trade barriers erected. The point with trade barriers is that countries act to minimise their effect on exports and maximise their impact on imports. There is also an issue with the electorate. Some trade barriers are politically unacceptable, because they inconvenience voters too much. Other trade barriers are all too politically acceptable.

    If we leave the EU we will either remain (expensively) within a free trade zone (the Norwegian solution) or individual trade deals will be negotiated section by section (the Swiss solution). In the Norwegian solution we will have to accept the free trade zone as we find it, and lose negotiating power over future changes, but it will largely be "as you were". However, Norway pays about 109 Euro per head per year for this privilege (the UK currently pays about 135 Euro per year to be in the EU).

    If we take the Swiss solution, each EU country will jockey for position in negotiating trade deals in its own self-interest subject to the overriding powers of the big players, No-one can say how well or badly our negotiating hand will be played. Of course we are not Switzerland. We will have some advantages over Switzerland in negotiations and we will have some disadvantages. We of course have different interests to Switzerland and the EU states will have different interests against us.

    It is in the "leave" camp's interest to portray all of this as very easy and for the "remain" camp to suggest that it is impossible. However, few people disagree that Cameron has achieved very little for all his negotiating, over many months. Why suddenly, if we say we are leaving, are we going to achieve much more, much more quickly, in trade negotiations?

    The other key point is that modern trade deals all involve a loss of sovereignty in the terms that the "leave" camp portray sovereignty. It isn't a real loss of sovereignty any more than joining the EU is a loss of sovereignty because a country remains free to leave the EU or withdraw from a trade deal, which is true sovereignty.

    However the way the "leave" camp refer to sovereignty; it is about freedom to make individual decisions "on the hoof". All trade deals restrict that ability. It is unclear to what extent the "leave" camp will be prepared to sign agreements having similar effects to membership of the single market.
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    (Original post by King Boo)
    28 economists?! Wow! We better just finish up all of this nonsense and get back to normal because 27 economists said we'd be worse off.

    Lets ignore the massive social and political issues the EU brings with it in favour of 27 economists.
    The problem for the "Leave" camp (or rather camps) at the moment is that they are wanting it all ways round. As with Salmond in the Scottish referendum, the leavers are unwilling to admit anything will be worse. Nothing has to be traded off for the advantages of leaving. It isn't a winning strategy.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    High uncertainty=lower investment both domestically and internationally until the uncertainty clears=short-medium term harm. Exactly the same way Scottish independence would have harmed the non Scottish economy despite a heavy load being taken off our shoulders.

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    Uncertainty about what? The UK wouldn't be a new country with a different currency.
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    (Original post by JordanL_)
    Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?
    Because you don't need to study Economics to have knowledge on the likely implications of a decision. By that logic, most policy makers and ministers would be out of a job.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Economists OFTEN get it wrong. If you ever want ten different answers to one question ask five economists.
    Sure but if they got things wrong more than 50% of the time we could just ask their opinion anyway and then assume the opposite.


    (I actually do this with some football pundits.I especially recommend betting against everything Didi Hammann predicts.No joke.)



    Edit. Also,it's best never to ask an even number of economists anything.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    The problem for the "Leave" camp (or rather camps) at the moment is that they are wanting it all ways round. As with Salmond in the Scottish referendum, the leavers are unwilling to admit anything will be worse. Nothing has to be traded off for the advantages of leaving. It isn't a winning strategy.

    I'm sorry but why is that a problem for the 'leave 'camp!?

    Surely that's a problem for the stay camp isn't it?


    The leave camp can rely on promoting the sovereignty issue and the immigration issue.

    It may not need anything else to actually prevail.

    Yet you are confident they cannot win this way.

    I bow to your superior knowledge of these things but I wouldn't bet on it.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    Nobody at this point can do proper cost-benefit analysis because you don't know what Brexit involves.

    Does it involve a Norway style arrangement or Switzerland style arrangement, is it some kind of associate EU membership, will it be a more distant split with either the UK wanting less to do with Europe or the EU punishing the UK for leaving as a warning to others.

    Unless you know what is on the table you can't accurately model it.
    To be fair i think it's near certain that there'll be a negative short term effect on jobs and probably investment even with a free trade deal albeit muted compared to the scare stories of millions and potentially compensated by the fiscal benefits of leaving (contribution, cap ect..). The question we can't know really is what the long term picture will look like since that's where the potential gains lie.

    (Original post by sanban786)
    the verdict of 28 economists is not strong enough evidence to say that the British economy will suffer by leaving the EU.

    But in my opinion Britain is not a well doing or a rich country. leaving the EU will definitely cause some negative effects whether politically or economically. But that's just my opinion
    Between your tax credits, NHS and future pension you've never had it so good. This mentality of entitlement is one which does the nation no good.

    (Original post by caravaggio2)
    It would be interesting to know how many of the 27 correctly predicted the 2007-8 financial crisis.😊
    Few due to minimal signs until late 05 (Katrina popped the first bubble by forcing small banks and insurance firms to evaluate their balance sheets and lending practices). That said you should watch 'The Big Short' as it's a brilliant story depicting those who did predict correctly,

    (Original post by AlwaysWatching)
    Economists disagree with each other on just about anything. Plus who were these economists and why didn't they ask economists that are anti EU? Plenty of them around, I know several who are doing Mphils and PHD's who are anti EU.

    Plus you can never really predict the financial market.
    Your assuming that they are pro-EU? I might well vote Out, that does not reflect my opinion that the short term effect will be negative. There's insufficient evidence to infer their EU position.
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    (Original post by Josb)
    They all say it's going to harm the British economy. I'd like to know how?
    Lower long term investment from the EU and ergo lower job creation. There's less incentive for Mercedes to build a new factory here if we wish to diverge from EU regulation as the right wishes.

    Minimal job losses from existing factories though, costs are already sunk.
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    (Original post by moggis)
    I'm sorry but why is that a problem for the 'leave 'camp!?

    Surely that's a problem for the stay camp isn't it?


    The leave camp can rely on promoting the sovereignty issue and the immigration issue.

    It may not need anything else to actually prevail.

    Yet you are confident they cannot win this way.

    I bow to your superior knowledge of these things but I wouldn't bet on it.
    Which side wins doesn't really depend on which side is right on individual issues. Winning is about having a more convincing narrative.

    Leave's narrative on practical issues and on the economy will not look convincing and, as with Salmond, they will not get a chance to raise what they want to talk about. They will just be hounded about these questions.

    Ultimately the sovereignty issue, which is strong for Leave pulls in the opposite direction to the practical issues and the economy.

    Immigration is difficult for both Leave and Remain and Leave's problem is raising it without exposing the closet racism.


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    (Original post by JordanL_)
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

    Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?
    Probably because economists in general have a habitual tendency to be completely and utterly wrong. In predicting stocks and funds for example, the majority of experts perform worse than the market average, and in one study only 60% were able to perform better than funds whose strategies were decided by throwing darts. Seriously.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    Probably because economists in general have a habitual tendency to be completely and utterly wrong. In predicting stocks and funds for example, the majority of experts perform worse than the market average, and in one study only 60% were able to perform better than funds whose strategies were decided by throwing darts. Seriously.
    To be fair, simply tracking the FTSE all share over time delivers better returns than those predicted by any groups of people from traders to economists. This suggests that something is fundamentally wrong with our understanding rather than economists being wrong because of a particular methodology.
 
 
 
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