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General election predictions thread. watch

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    (Original post by PetrosAC)
    Unfortunately I'm a rare breed of absolute delights

    In all seriousness, whilst people can be a bit salty at times, most of us have good banter in the Commons Bar where we just chit chat and stuff. Most people are lovely
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Haha haha

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    Most of TSR is salty, so it was foolish of me to expect anything else really. Seems like the type of place where it's easy to wind people up, so that has potential to be fun.
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    (Original post by Little Toy Gun)
    Doesn't the Speaker get a seat?
    No
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    TORY:12 (-1)
    LABOUR:13 (-1)
    LIBERAL: 10 (+1)
    UKIP: 7 (-1)
    SOCIALIST: 4 (+2)
    NAT LIB: 1 (+2)
    GREEN: 3 (-1)

    It's a little difficult to properly assess because events since mid-March have probably made the election come at the worst time for us so even with no-mass PM i think RL will have some influence. At any rate..

    I think that RL will cost the Tories, i think that Labour will struggle without the mass PM but that Corbyn will only be mildly bad since the Greens have had a quiet term and can't draw many Mhoc voters (though i think the Socialists will reap the rewards of their activity). I think that the Liberals getting 9 seats so quickly post-RL coalition probably suggests their regaining supporters and i expect Ukip to have lost their shine a bit. While i'm not sure they deserve it, the Nat Libs probably scrape 2% for a seat.
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    TORY:14 (+1) - the lack of mass PM will give them a bit of a bounce.
    LABOUR:12 (-2) - Again, the lack of a mass PM and possibly the spring-cleaning of our membership will have negative effects.
    LIBERAL: 9 - No reason for their support to really do anything other than stay the same tbh, they've got their centrist niche.
    UKIP: 10 (+2) - Recent migrant-related events have kind of pushed their ideology even more into the spotlight, and we might see some Hazzer-alikes switching from the Tories again.
    SOCIALIST: 3 (+1) - They've been consistently active and the lack of a mass PM will affect turnout which will benefit them.
    NAT LIB: 0 - Crap manifesto, tiny membership, probably couldn't fill a seat anyway totally inactive and totally unknown. Why would anyone vote for this party?
    GREEN: 4 - Like the Liberals, they have their niche; and they also haven't really been that prominent this term, no reason for their support to increase or decrease.


    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    TORY:14
    LABOUR:11
    LIBERAL: 6
    UKIP:10
    SOCIALIST: 2
    NAT LIB: 1
    GREEN: 6



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    This strikes me as interesting - reasons?
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    TORY:14 (+1) - the lack of mass PM will give them a bit of a bounce.
    LABOUR:12 (-2) - Again, the lack of a mass PM and possibly the spring-cleaning of our membership will have negative effects.
    LIBERAL: 9 - No reason for their support to really do anything other than stay the same tbh, they've got their centrist niche.
    UKIP: 10 (+2) - Recent migrant-related events have kind of pushed their ideology even more into the spotlight, and we might see some Hazzer-alikes switching from the Tories again.
    SOCIALIST: 3 (+1) - They've been consistently active and the lack of a mass PM will affect turnout which will benefit them.
    NAT LIB: 0 - Crap manifesto, tiny membership, probably couldn't fill a seat anyway totally inactive and totally unknown. Why would anyone vote for this party?
    GREEN:4 - Like the Liberals, they have their niche; and they also haven't really been that prominent this term, no reason for their support to increase or decrease.



    This strikes me as interesting - reasons?
    With the turnout expected to be low I would say that the few votes the Nat Libs will get should be enough for at least one seat, however given the weakness of the manifesto I doubt they will get enough for a second.
    Looking back at historic data the lack of mass Pm and hopeful lack of a sidebar poll, purely because of the lack of context it will have, gives the Tories a boost and Labour a slight loss, with UK politics being where many of the non-MHoC votes come from and generally more right wing, again, based on the historic data.
    The socialists aren't exactly weak when it comes to the base vote, however with the RL Labour party having shifted left I expect they will lose some votes to Labour, but not enough to drop below the 2 they won last term.
    The lack of mass PM will likely also hurt the Liberals, and perhaps some losses to the Nat Libs and maybe some to the Tories from those who read the manifestos and are more fiscally conservative but would not naturally vote Tory would offer a slide.
    The Greens also don't have the weakest of base votes and I think are hurt slightly by the mass PM, this is probably one I'm more uncertain about but think they should have a stronger showing than the last election, especially with a "proper" manifesto this time round.
    Finally, I think UKIP will have a bit of a boost, again due to the lack of mass PM which seems to harm them slightly, but also people who are right wing but are slightly disenfranchised IRL due to Cameron's spending of taxpayer money on pro EU propaganda.
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    Tory: 13
    Lab: 12
    UKIP: 11
    Lib: 7
    Nat Lib: 1
    Green: 3
    Soc: 3

    Coalition prediction: ConKip

    I expect the big hoo-hah being made over the EU is going to drive support to UKIP, and the lack of a mass PM will hurt Lab/Lib significantly. Nat Libs probably have enough members to secure a seat, but nobody else will vote for them.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    So just posting them here with the end of term and we all know who is standing please make your predictions. The winner gets absonlutely nothing but our respect.

    TORY:13
    LABOUR:12 (-2)
    LIBERAL: 10 (+1)
    UKIP: 8
    SOCIALIST: 3 (+1)
    NAT LIB: 2 (+2)
    GREEN: 2 (-2)
    Assuming we still do the mass PM

    Tory: 12 (-1)
    Labour: 13(-1)
    Libbers: 9
    UKIP: 8
    Soc: 4 (+2)
    Nat lib: 1 (+1)
    Green: 3(-1)
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Tory: 13
    Lab: 12
    UKIP: 11
    Lib: 7
    Nat Lib: 1
    Green: 3
    Soc: 3

    Coalition prediction: ConKip

    I expect the big hoo-hah being made over the EU is going to drive support to UKIP, and the lack of a mass PM will hurt Lab/Lib significantly. Nat Libs probably have enough members to secure a seat, but nobody else will vote for them.
    They had enough members at one point to form, so they should be able to get at least 10 votes, with 10 votes they could pick up 3 seats or so depending on how many vote, I think it'll be around 150 votes (low turnout from no mass PM) in all so 3 votes per seat.
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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    They had enough members at one point to form, so they should be able to get at least 10 votes, with 10 votes they could pick up 3 seats or so depending on how many vote, I think it'll be around 150 votes (low turnout from no mass PM) in all so 3 votes per seat.
    Two of those members are members of other parties, some are inactive, and we'll probably see a rise in campaigning via signatures without the mass PM.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Two of those members are members of other parties, some are inactive, and we'll probably see a rise in campaigning via signatures without the mass PM.
    I still can't see it anything over 150 votes (once all the illegal votes are taken out).
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    (Original post by Andy98)
    Assuming we still do the mass PM

    Tory: 12 (-1)
    Labour: 13(-1)
    UKIP: 8
    Soc: 4 (+2)
    Nat lib: 1 (+1)
    Green: 3(-1)
    You missed the Liberals off, but as you've only allocated 41 seats I assume you're predicting we'll win 9 seats


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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    I still can't see it anything over 150 votes (once all the illegal votes are taken out).
    My guess is 5 votes for the Nat Libs.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    My guess is 5 votes for the Nat Libs.
    Probably right, but hopefully they only get one seat
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    (Original post by PetrosAC)
    You missed the Liberals off, but as you've only allocated 41 seats I assume you're predicting we'll win 9 seats


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    Good spot - I'll edit that one in

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    Sorted my signature out for the GE.
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    (Original post by Andy98)
    Assuming we still do the mass PM

    Tory: 12 (-1)
    Labour: 13(-1)
    Libbers: 9
    UKIP: 8
    Soc: 4 (+2)
    Nat lib: 1 (+1)
    Green: 3(-1)
    And in reality?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    With the turnout expected to be low I would say that the few votes the Nat Libs will get should be enough for at least one seat, however given the weakness of the manifesto I doubt they will get enough for a second.
    Looking back at historic data the lack of mass Pm and hopeful lack of a sidebar poll, purely because of the lack of context it will have, gives the Tories a boost and Labour a slight loss, with UK politics being where many of the non-MHoC votes come from and generally more right wing, again, based on the historic data.
    The socialists aren't exactly weak when it comes to the base vote, however with the RL Labour party having shifted left I expect they will lose some votes to Labour, but not enough to drop below the 2 they won last term.
    The lack of mass PM will likely also hurt the Liberals, and perhaps some losses to the Nat Libs and maybe some to the Tories from those who read the manifestos and are more fiscally conservative but would not naturally vote Tory would offer a slide.
    The Greens also don't have the weakest of base votes and I think are hurt slightly by the mass PM, this is probably one I'm more uncertain about but think they should have a stronger showing than the last election, especially with a "proper" manifesto this time round.
    Finally, I think UKIP will have a bit of a boost, again due to the lack of mass PM which seems to harm them slightly, but also people who are right wing but are slightly disenfranchised IRL due to Cameron's spending of taxpayer money on pro EU propaganda.
    I don't know about the Nat Libs. I'd honestly not put them above 4 or 5 votes, as some of their founding members have either been banned or gone completely inactive.

    Agree about Labour and the Tories and the lack of mass PM.

    Tbh I think the Socialists were at their lowest ebb at the last election, so they don't really have any votes to lose to Labour. Iirc they got 13 votes last time, I'd be surprised if one of those wasn't a party member. What with the effects of low turnout and the fact that they've just been more active in general this term, thereby attracting more attention from those who look at the MHoC occasionally but don't take part, I'd say they have a good chance of keeping their current 3.

    Will the lack of mass PM hurt the Liberals though? They don't have as much of the rl brand recognition as Labour and the Tories do, probably works in their favour tbh, so I'd expect that most of their votes come from party members, centrists that follow this place and just natural centrists who look and agree with their policies.

    With the Greens, at a stretch I'd agree partially and revise my prediction to give them one more because of the mass PM, but they won't be helped by the fact that we've heard literally nothing from the rl Greens over the last 6 months, and I don't think their manifesto really works in their favour either. I certainly don't think they'll get enough to go up to 6.

    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Two of those members are members of other parties, some are inactive, and we'll probably see a rise in campaigning via signatures without the mass PM.
    Who actually looks at signatures though? I can't even remember what mine is off the top of my head.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    I don't know about the Nat Libs. I'd honestly not put them above 4 or 5 votes, as some of their founding members have either been banned or gone completely inactive.

    Agree about Labour and the Tories and the lack of mass PM.

    Tbh I think the Socialists were at their lowest ebb at the last election, so they don't really have any votes to lose to Labour. Iirc they got 13 votes last time, I'd be surprised if one of those wasn't a party member. What with the effects of low turnout and the fact that they've just been more active in general this term, thereby attracting more attention from those who look at the MHoC occasionally but don't take part, I'd say they have a good chance of keeping their current 3.

    Will the lack of mass PM hurt the Liberals though? They don't have as much of the rl brand recognition as Labour and the Tories do, probably works in their favour tbh, so I'd expect that most of their votes come from party members, centrists that follow this place and just natural centrists who look and agree with their policies.

    With the Greens, at a stretch I'd agree partially and revise my prediction to give them one more because of the mass PM, but they won't be helped by the fact that we've heard literally nothing from the rl Greens over the last 6 months, and I don't think their manifesto really works in their favour either. I certainly don't think they'll get enough to go up to 6.


    Who actually looks at signatures though? I can't even remember what mine is off the top of my head.
    I based a chunk of my prediction on the day by day data from the last general, and the liberals did benefit from the mass PM, their gradient increased, I believe only labour saw a greater increase given you guys get a lot of your votes in the first day of two, I assume mostly from members who don't do anything, whereas ours get dragged out a bit, the first day is mostly the active membership, then the inactive membership and UK politics kicks in

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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    Who actually looks at signatures though? I can't even remember what mine is off the top of my head.
    Can you really not? Because when you set it up, I ran outside thinking there's been a solar eclipse.
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    (Original post by cranbrook_aspie)
    UKIP: 10 (+2) - Recent migrant-related events have kind of pushed their ideology even more into the spotlight, and we might see some Hazzer-alikes switching from the Tories again.
    .



    This strikes me as interesting - reasons?
    I must say members are polling UKIP quite high ..... My defection will most likely not have an impact on how many seats we win as a party .... we could get another defection to UKIP if the right government is formed
 
 
 
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