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I have a question about the EU referendum watch

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    (Original post by paul514)
    It wasn't about trying to see into the future it was the out right lies on everything they wrote in that paper.
    Tell us what the outright lies are then.
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    (Original post by typonaut)
    Tell us what the outright lies are then.
    I already did, and I then moved to point by point and no one answered


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    (Original post by paul514)
    I already did, and I then moved to point by point and no one answered


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    Several people answered, you just didn't like their answers.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Several people answered, you just didn't like their answers.
    No one has answered directly the individual points avoids them


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    (Original post by paul514)
    No one has answered directly the individual points avoids them


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    That's because the points can all be met with the same response: just as the remain side may err on one side with their projections, the leave side will err on the other and saying something is outright lies without providing a reputable source to back that up is nothing but silly.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    That's because the points can all be met with the same response: just as the remain side may err on one side with their projections, the leave side will err on the other and saying something is outright lies without providing a reputable source to back that up is nothing but silly.
    So factual points are answered by saying but what about the out campaign?

    No, answer them directly or just don't bother replying, what's the point?


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    (Original post by paul514)
    So factual points are answered by saying but what about the out campaign?

    No, answer them directly or just don't bother replying, what's the point?


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    Once again, you haven't made a single 'factual point' in this whole thread, you've asserted that things are wrong without providing a single point to support that. I'm not saying 'what about the out campaign', I'm saying 'yeah this is probably at the lower end of expected outcomes but nobody ever expected anything at the mean of outcomes to be said by either camp'.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Once again, you haven't made a single 'factual point' in this whole thread, you've asserted that things are wrong without providing a single point to support that. I'm not saying 'what about the out campaign', I'm saying 'yeah this is probably at the lower end of expected outcomes but nobody ever expected anything at the mean of outcomes to be said by either camp'.
    Oh my god that little list I made are facts for ****s sake


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Oh my god that little list I made are facts for ****s sake


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    If you actually believe any of those things are demonstrable facts you should see a psychiatrist.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    If you actually believe any of those things are demonstrable facts you should see a psychiatrist.
    So the fact they haven't increased the amount of households in the report to fit the growing population from the migration they predict in the report isn't a fact? Ok


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    (Original post by paul514)
    So the fact they haven't increased the amount of households in the report to fit the growing population from the migration they predict in the report isn't a fact? Ok


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    The Leave campaign is attacking the politics of the Treasury Analysis because they are in no position to challenge the economics.

    The number of households is irrelevant because it is a meaningless stat in the first place. I am not £4,300 worse off if a difference in relative GDP growth divided by a number of households (not population) amounts to £4,300.

    The use of that meaningless stat by the "In" campaign to try to confuse people into thinking they will be £4,300 poorer doesn't undermine the economic position that GDP will be lower than it otherwise would be by an percentage ranging between 3.4% and 9.5%.

    The Treasury isn't plucking a single number and saying that will be the outcome. It is saying that the actual outcome will lie somewhere within that range. The problem for the Leave campaign is that the best case scenario is that the country will be 3.4% worse off than it would otherwise be and the worst case scenario is that the country will be 9.5% worse off than it otherwise would be.
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    Paul, by (legitimately) arguing against the Treasury's statement you are attempting to bite off more than you can chew. You could be reasonable and argue "The Treasury are alarmist and overstating the disruption that will follow withdrawal, and here is an independent report that argues as such" but instead you seem to be saying "The Treasury are lying, there will be no disruption of any sort, everything will be milk and honey, and I say so."

    To stop us nagging, you need:

    a) an independent report that supports you case (not 'because I say so')

    b) acknowledgment that there will be a degree of economic disruption upon withdrawal. You cannot argue that there will be none, when it's such a huge chunk of our trade. The onus is on you to show that the disruption will be small, brief, and worth enduring for the great things that will follow Brexit.

    But you argue from too tenuous a position instead.
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    Ok none of you want to discuss its failings directly, fine.


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    (Original post by paul514)
    I already did, and I then moved to point by point and no one answered
    Can't see it in this thread. You made a list of points, you didn't really say what you thought about each one (but we're led to believe that you thought they were false claims), and you didn't elaborate on any of them or provide any sources for your counter claims.

    What I've found in the past with many OUT claims or counter claims here is that the posters are merely repeating something they've seen or heard elsewhere, that actually doesn't apply to the argument, or has no verifiable source.

    So, let's take your point about the number of households. The ONS says that in 2015 there were 27 million households (this is the latest data available):

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati...lds/2015-11-05

    As to the number of households in 2030 I find this government prediction from 2010:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/upload...95/1780763.pdf

    Which says that in 2033 there will be 27.5 million households.

    Compared to this more recent (2015) private research which says 31.2 million:

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/m...red-1970s.html

    The main problem with your argument here is that you seem to be saying that the future is unknowable, but at the same time wanting to rely upon unknowable facts. However, I'm willing to let you do that if you can come up with some data for your unknowable facts.

    Anyway, let's say that the government is wrong in its prediction and the Centre for Economics and Business Research and Legal & General are right. We'll also have to concede that the government's estimate of loss per household is predicated on the 27 million figure (I'd like a reference on this too please).

    So, if we do all that it is fairly easy to revise the government's figure of £4,300 per household (or 6.2% of the economy):

    (4,300 / 31.2) x 27 = £3,721.15

    Although that is a different figure, I think you'll agree that it is not a inconsiderable amount. I also think you have to consider that whatever the figure is, if the economy were to experience slower growth upon Brexit, this is not a one time hit, ie the average household would lose approximately that amount every year. If we take that figure as an average, the total loss 10 years either side of 2030 would be £74,423 (on the adjusted figure). This may not be enough to buy a pizza in 2040, but I think I'd rather have the choice.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    So the fact they haven't increased the amount of households in the report to fit the growing population from the migration they predict in the report isn't a fact? Ok
    Please show us the data where they have not done this, any kind of pointer will do, as long as it is credible. What you seem to be claiming is a basic error, which could undermine the credibility of the report. But you are just making the claim without providing any evidence.
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    Dammit typonaut will you quit it with your damn facts just admit you're lying
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Dammit typonaut will you quit it with your damn facts just admit you're lying

    I am such a naughty typonaut
    I am such a naughty typonaut
    I am such a naughty typonaut
    I am such a naughty typonaut
    I am such a naughty typonaut
    I am such a naughty typonaut
 
 
 
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