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Would Germany go bust if the UK pulled out of the EU? Watch

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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    I'm gonna be a meanie again and ask:

    Have you checked the date on that article?
    LOL - But you and I both know it would not have got less - only more.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    If it is a lie take it up with the DAILY TELEGRAPH (source)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...t-deepens.html

    Why on earth people up ticked you and not me.
    That seems so mean.

    I did not call you a liar.

    PEople are so fickle.
    It is possible that The Telegraph is using a different measure of what constitutes 'the biggest export partner' - but I have shown you the data tables from (might I highlight) official German government statistics which demonstrate why there is ample reason to say that this is far from the truth, especially if one judges this by the measure of total turnover.

    The data tables - however - conclusively prove that in 2015, the UK was not Germany's biggest export market (contrary to your claim), whilst statistics retrieved from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (source) show that in 2014, Germany was in fact the UK's biggest export market - demonstrating how Germany's economy is far less reliant on UK imports than the UK's economy is reliant on German imports.

    The article you have quoted, however, dates from January 2013 and could be outdated (although I strongly doubt that the UK was ever Germany's biggest export partner in recent history considering the 2015 trades). Generally speaking, I don't trust The Telegraph as a factual source of information either: it has a very prominent Tory bias, albeit far less than The Daily Mail.

    I agree that it's annoying how individuals have upvoted my post and not yours. There is, however, reason for this: quoting from the media and parroting its claims is not convincing, nor is it often the whole picture. To debate effectively, you can't rely on these secondary sources of information, which will often have skewed data to present a misleading, sensationalised and disfigured illusion of the truth. You have to go back to the published studies, statistics and facts - which often portray a different story to what the media is saying, and which are the stem from which these secondary sources of information often get their information.

    The basis of your argument was a newspaper report - reports whose primary intent is not to inform, but to sensationalise. Much less credit is deserved for quoting that than it is for looking through official statistics - which lack the bias of newspapers - and formulating a much stronger argument based on looking at them.

    If you listened to the media often enough, you'd be led to believe that EU immigrants are unskilled, uneducated, on benefits and are lowering native wages. In fact, one study showed that whilst 24% of UK natives in the UK workforce have a university degree - compared to 64% of Western EU immigrants and 25% of Eastern EU immigrants. The same study showed that EU immigrants are 7% less likely to claim social housing and 49% less likely to claim benefits than UK natives. Meanwhile, whilst EU immigrants contributed £20bn to the UK economy between 2001 and 2011, UK natives actually drained the economy to the tune of about £750m. Official statistics paint a similarly different image of the scaremongering about benefits: of the 2.1 million EU citizens living in the UK, only about 131,000 are on benefits (about 6% of all EU immigrants). In numerical terms, this is comparable to the population of Dundee. Meanwhile, several reports from Bank of England governors have shown that EU immigration has a "statistically-insignificant" impact on UK native wages - and just today, there was that headline supporting that by saying that leaving the EU would lower UK wages by over £30, I believe.

    What this proves to you, I hope, is never to believe what you hear in the media without looking at the published studies and statistics.

    In my eyes, you are not a liar - nor did I call you that. What you were promoting, which The Telegraph was also promoting, was a lie according to the official statistics which I have cited, explained and defended at great length. If you look again to published studies - and I will bring you back to them again - those who are left-leaning - like myself - use adjectives to describe individuals far more than those who are right-leaning, who instead prefer to use nouns to describe individuals. If I were right-wing, I would have call you a liar. But I'm left-wing, and so I've said that you were lying. There is a subtle difference, and the studies show that the language of those on different sides of political spectra vary to make this difference.

    All the world's a wonder when you look at the published studies and statistics - and all the world's very different to how the media claim it is.
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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    I certainly don't(or think many reasonable people) pay attention to all the apocalyptic leave scenarios being peddled by some politicians, but I don't think its worth the hassle of leaving just to end up joining the EEA at the end of everything.
    Theres a big chance we could end up paying a substantial amount of the money we contribute on dealing with extra costs and regulation. from my understanding its going to be a negative shock, an extra layer of expense and then an unknown.

    I dont think the Europeans have an incling how hacked off many people in this country are. Its ironic that those in the East seem to be the most resistant to any change, especially if it impinges on how much subsidy they get. the extra benefits is microscopic compared to the bigger things like trade.
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    (Original post by Southwestern)
    It is possible that The Telegraph is using a different measure of what constitutes 'the biggest export partner' - but I have shown you the data tables from (might I highlight) official German government statistics which demonstrate why there is ample reason to say that this is far from the truth, especially if one judges this by the measure of total turnover.

    The data tables - however - conclusively prove that in 2015, the UK was not Germany's biggest export market (contrary to your claim), whilst statistics from the Observatory of Economic Complexity (source) show that Germany was in fact the UK's biggest export market - demonstrating how Germany's economy is far less reliant on UK imports than the UK's economy is reliant on German imports.

    The article you have quoted, however, dates from January 2013 and could be outdated (although I strongly doubt that the UK was ever Germany's biggest export partner in recent history considering the 2015 trades). Generally speaking, I don't trust The Telegraph as a factual source of information either: it has a very prominent Tory bias, albeit far less than The Daily Mail.

    I agree that it's annoying how individuals have upvoted my post and not yours. There is, however, reason for this: quoting from the media and parroting its claims is not convincing, nor is it often the whole picture. To debate effectively, you can't rely on these secondary sources of information, which will often have skewed data to present a misleading, sensationalised and disfigured illusion of the truth. You have to go back to the published studies, statistics and facts - which often portray a different story to what the media is saying, and which is the stem from which these secondary sources of information often get their information.

    The basis of your argument was a newspaper report - reports whose primary intent is not to inform, but to sensationalise. Much less credit is deserved for quoting that than it is for looking through official statistics - which lack the bias of newspapers - and formulating a much stronger argument based on looking at them.

    If you listened to the media often enough, you'd be led to believe that EU immigrants are unskilled, uneducated, on benefits and are lowering native wages. In fact, one study showed that whilst 24% of UK natives in the UK workforce have a university degree - compared to 64% of Western EU immigrants and 25% of Eastern EU immigrants. The same study showed that EU immigrants are 7% less likely to claim social housing and 49% less likely to claim benefits than UK natives. Meanwhile, whilst EU immigrants contributed £20bn to the UK economy between 2001 and 2011, UK natives actually drained the economy to the tune of about £750m. Official statistics paint a similarly different image of the scaremongering about benefits: of the 2.1 million EU citizens living in the UK, only about 131,000 are on benefits (about 6% of all EU immigrants). In numerical terms, this is comparable to the population of Dundee. Meanwhile, several reports from Bank of England governors have shown that EU immigration has a "statistically-insignificant" impact on UK native wages - and just today, there was that headline supporting that by saying that leaving the EU would lower UK wages by over £30, I believe.

    What this proves to you, I hope, is never to believe what you hear in the media without looking at the published studies and statistics.

    In my eyes, you are not a liar - nor did I call you that. What you were promoting, which The Telegraph was also promoting, was a lie according to the official statistics which I have cited, explained and defended at great length. If you look again to published studies - and I will bring you back to them again - those who are left-leaning - like myself - use adjectives to describe individuals far more than those who are right-leaning, who instead prefer to use nouns to describe individuals. If I were right-wing, I would have call you a liar. But I'm left-wing, and so I've said that you were lying. There is a subtle difference, and the studies show that the language of those on different sides of political spectra vary to make this difference.

    All the world's a wonder when you look at the published studies and statistics - and all the world's very different to how the media claim it is.
    gawd what a waffler.
    You know as well as I do that Germany would be totally screwed if it came to a trade war. Its not going to happen. Get real
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    LOL - But you and I both know it would not have got less - only more.
    Not according to the official figures on Southwestern's link.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    gawd what a waffler.
    You know as well as I do that Germany would be totally screwed if it came to a trade war. Its not going to happen. Get real
    My dear sir, a sensible pragmatist would look at the facts and face up to them. You have provided no facts or evidence to the contrary of my claims (which are based on official German government statistics) - bar a newspaper report which, as I have explained in my "waffler" report (and I do take offence with your somewhat abusive language), is unlikely to be telling the full and current picture. Your best response is a slurry of short sentences essentially saying "it's not going to happen", even if the statistics conclusively prove otherwise.

    If you want what is best for your country, like any patriot, you will go back to the facts and act based on them. And what the facts show - as I have cited and explained at great length - is that the UK would probably be worse hit from collapsed trade with Germany than Germany would be hit by the same collapse.

    Is this an arguing point for 'Remain'? Yes, if you're German.

    What you are doing - ignoring the facts because they disprove what you have been arguing - is dangerous and misleading. No sensible, pragmatic individual would ever dare do this.
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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    Not according to the official figures on Southwestern's link.
    Who cares you know the bottom line is that its billions. Any trouble will cause hundreds of thousands of layoffs and unemployment in Germany. Typical example: "BMW Group achieved a market share of 8.7 per cent of the total UK car market in 2015 "

    Come give up you know its over. Go on to next thread.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Who cares you know the bottom line is that its billions. Any trouble will cause hundreds of thousands of layoffs and unemployment in Germany. Typical example: "BMW Group achieved a market share of 8.7 per cent of the total UK car market in 2015 "

    Come give up you know its over. Go on to next thread.
    Give up on believing last years official govt figures over a 3 year old Telegraph article?

    At no point have I said either side will go bust in the event of a Brexit. I think we're better off staying in but that the consequences of leaving are being greatly exaggerated by some politicians, as my earlier post about ignoring apocalyptic nonsense attests to.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Who cares you know the bottom line is that its billions. Any trouble will cause hundreds of thousands of layoffs and unemployment in Germany. Typical example: "BMW Group achieved a market share of 8.7 per cent of the total UK car market in 2015 "

    Come give up you know its over. Go on to next thread.
    Under what cicumstances do you think Brits will stop buying BMWs, VW, Porsches, and Mercedes? Even if there was a tariff on them, people will still want them just like people want Jeeps.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    Who cares you know the bottom line is that its billions. Any trouble will cause hundreds of thousands of layoffs and unemployment in Germany. Typical example: "BMW Group achieved a market share of 8.7 per cent of the total UK car market in 2015 "

    Come give up you know its over. Go on to next thread.
    Considering youve been proven wrong on your points and you are telling everyone else to give up ....lol.

    1. Nobody has said trade will stop, it will become more expensive as both sides will have two systems and stes of regulations to deal with. You made that up.

    2. The UK is neither the most important importer export market to Germany nor the most significant importer. 3rd and 9th respectively. 5th for turnover and 2nd for BoT.

    3. There will be an economic shock, but its unknown how long that will last. It will cost both sides jobs in the short term, then everything else is unknown. Your fantasy scenario wont happen.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Under what cicumstances do you think Brits will stop buying BMWs, VW, Porsches, and Mercedes? Even if there was a tariff on them, people will still want them just like people want Jeeps.
    boring. Do a GCSE in economics....
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    boring. Do a GCSE in economics....
    Aiming for a D then.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Aiming for a D then.
    Sounds like my score.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Ofc they will have a trade deal, but it will be more expensive to conduct business and the UK will have to decie whether it wnats access to the signle market or not. If it does , then it will have to accept free movement of people.

    more expensive? true, but tariffs are very low these days, which is why the single market isn't as valuable now as when it was created. The maximum would be 2.5% of exports under WTO rules, and even that would be less than our net EU contribution
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    (Original post by Maker)
    The Greeks borrowed heavily when they joined the Euro because they could get low interest rates and the lenders were under the impression the EU would not allow a default.

    It was not Germany's fault the Greeks were reckless with borrowing money they can't repay. The Greeks never collected the taxes they were suppose to and spent a lot on paying pensions to 50 year olds.

    It like blaming George Osbourne because you splurged on your credit cards and now being repossessed.
    So which is it? Cheap borrowing is a quid pro quo exchange for the likely hundred billion euros Greece has subsidised Vampire Germany with over the years, under the impression that Germany would act as lender of last resort in thanks - or the feckless Greeks' fault for being stupid enough to believe the hype?

    And if they were stupid enough to believe the hype and are now paying a ludicrous and disgusting price to satisfy Vampire Germany's delusions, why are you suggesting that others who have the opportunity and power to leave submit to the same hysterical Merkelian sadism?
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    (Original post by 41b)
    So which is it? Cheap borrowing is a quid pro quo exchange for the likely hundred billion euros Greece has subsidised Vampire Germany with over the years, under the impression that Germany would act as lender of last resort in thanks - or the feckless Greeks' fault for being stupid enough to believe the hype?

    And if they were stupid enough to believe the hype and are now paying a ludicrous and disgusting price to satisfy Vampire Germany's delusions, why are you suggesting that others who have the opportunity and power to leave submit to the same hysterical Merkelian sadism?
    Well yes, it does look like i hit the nail on the head with this thread.

    Even Merkel has commented today!
    (See BBC news)

    Well done me.
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    (Original post by 41b)
    So which is it? Cheap borrowing is a quid pro quo exchange for the likely hundred billion euros Greece has subsidised Vampire Germany with over the years, under the impression that Germany would act as lender of last resort in thanks - or the feckless Greeks' fault for being stupid enough to believe the hype?

    And if they were stupid enough to believe the hype and are now paying a ludicrous and disgusting price to satisfy Vampire Germany's delusions, why are you suggesting that others who have the opportunity and power to leave submit to the same hysterical Merkelian sadism?
    The Greeks were so desperate to join the Euro they got Solomon Brothers to cook the books so they looked better. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16834815

    No one made the Greeks borrow money they couldn't pay back.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    The Greeks were so desperate to join the Euro they got Solomon Brothers to cook the books so they looked better. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16834815

    No one made the Greeks borrow money they couldn't pay back.
    Lol. You're living in fantasyland. Everyone was pressuring them to join. This was the time of join EU hysteria where the bureaucrats were getting as many countries as possible to join to weaken the various anti EU referendum movements in major countries.

    The fact that Goldman Sachs etc. approved it just proves the point. These institutions are tightly connected with Western Governments and are basically a branch of the crony capitalist state.
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    (Original post by 41b)
    Lol. You're living in fantasyland. Everyone was pressuring them to join. This was the time of join EU hysteria where the bureaucrats were getting as many countries as possible to join to weaken the various anti EU referendum movements in major countries.

    The fact that Goldman Sachs etc. approved it just proves the point. These institutions are tightly connected with Western Governments and are basically a branch of the crony capitalist state.
    In your fantasy land, lenders get the blame for Greeks borrowing too much, I'll try that with my bank next time I have an overdraft and see if they accept the blame.
 
 
 
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