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Why Britain will get worse trade deals outside EU Watch

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    (Original post by EuanF)
    1) OP ignores cultural and governmental connections between us and commonwealth states - they'd be eager to sign trade deals
    2) WTO rules still make trading within single market cheaper if we were to leave
    3) Nobody wants to trade with EU because it's a high-tariff protectionist bloc
    1) Lol. That is just made up. Most of them are 3rd World Nations. Other major economies like India really don't care. The EU already has trading agreements with a lot of them anyway.

    2) But not cheaper than being within the EU

    3) Yeh, no body wants to trade with the 2nd largest trading bloc in the world. That makes sense.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    1) Lol. That is just made up. Most of them are 3rd World Nations. Other major economies like India really don't care. The EU already has trading agreements with a lot of them anyway.
    Might want to update wikipedia then, because it reckons for the EU it is literally the UK, crown dependencies, and South Africa (and Cyprus and Malta, but they're inside)
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    (Original post by sleepysnooze)
    "forced"? you're suggesting a directoral democracy like switzerland would be "forced" to do anything remotely similar to this? if they're happy with the arrangement then they'll keep it, as they are doing. and switzerland is partially in the EEA, from the outside. obviously because this benefits both the EU and the swiss. in terms of schengen, as switzerland is a directoral democracy, obviously this benefits them just as much as it benefits the immigrants who come to switzerland, and clearly, switzerland doesn't have immigration on the scale of immigration to the UK.
    Switzerland gets the free trade or whatever its called only if they allow freedom of movement. I remember reading somewhere that Switzerland actually wanted to stop the freedom of movement but would suffer in trade for doing so.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    You can have trade deals with any country you like, the thing is to get one where you get the most benefits for the least concessions. Britain is only the fifth largest will be up against the EU, the largest and the US and China, the next 2 largest.
    The eu would move to 3rd without us.

    We aren't up against other countries to make a trade deal either it isn't about a queue for who's first.

    Like it or not brexit won't get us worse trade deals. At worse we will be in the position we are now and that's unlikely.




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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Might want to update wikipedia then, because it reckons for the EU it is literally the UK, crown dependencies, and South Africa (and Cyprus and Malta, but they're inside)
    Update it with what?
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Update it with what?
    All these extra commonwealth nations the eu has trade deals with, 2 (forgot Singapore is commonwealth) is hardly "a lot"

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    All these extra commonwealth nations the eu has trade deals with, 2 (forgot Singapore is commonwealth) is hardly "a lot"

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    Err na. Got it straight from the EU website.

    http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_149622.png
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/20...ade-with-both/

    Approx 60% of Commonwealth countries have a trade deal with the EU. Due to rise to 85% by 2019.
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    (Original post by paul514)
    The eu would move to 3rd without us.

    We aren't up against other countries to make a trade deal either it isn't about a queue for who's first.

    Like it or not brexit won't get us worse trade deals. At worse we will be in the position we are now and that's unlikely.




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    Depends who's figures you use and whether you use nominal GDP or PPP. If we take nominal, CIA world Fact book and IMF put EU second in the first place, and more than UK ahead of China (although China would overtake in the next couple of years). World bank gives it #1 which would drop to 2 and then 3 probably around about 2020

    If we take PPP, IMF and CIA give China #1, EU 2, but brexit would easily push it behind the US. World bank gives EU #1, just, which would drop into #3 with quite a gap to the US.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Depends who's figures you use and whether you use nominal GDP or PPP. If we take nominal, CIA world Fact book and IMF put EU second in the first place, and more than UK ahead of China (although China would overtake in the next couple of years). World bank gives it #1 which would drop to 2 and then 3 probably around about 2020

    If we take PPP, IMF and CIA give China #1, EU 2, but brexit would easily push it behind the US. World bank gives EU #1, just, which would drop into #3 with quite a gap to the US.

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    And all of that information is pointless


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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Err na. Got it straight from the EU website.

    http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/doc...doc_149622.png
    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/20...ade-with-both/

    Approx 60% of Commonwealth countries have a trade deal with the EU. Due to rise to 85% by 2019.
    I propose you take a look at the key. Only Singapore (which you can't see on the map) and South Africa have FTAs (or as it calls them, preferential trade agreements)

    Although it neatly dispells the "fta requires free movement of people" claim

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I propose you take a look at the key. Only Singapore (which you can't see on the map) and South Africa have FTAs (or as it calls them, preferential trade agreements)

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    Err no. There are more countries from the Commonwealth, that already have TA's in place.

    Even ignoring that the rest of them have agreements in place and are waiting adoption.

    I mean the fact you don't know this really just demonstrates that you don't know what you are talking about or you can't look at a map.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Err no. There are more countries from the Commonwealth, that already have TA's in place.

    Even ignoring that the rest of them have agreements in place and are waiting adoption.

    I mean the fact you don't know this really just demonstrates that you don't know what you are talking about or you can't look at a map.
    Okay, there are a bunch of Caribbean islands that are commonwealth with FTAs and Mauritius, right, so tiny economies we barely trade with and certainly not 60% (30) commonwealth members...

    Since you're insistent there are over 30 do you want to list them, the full fact list doesn't have that many.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)

    Although it neatly dispells the "fta requires free movement of people" claim

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    Who said that an FTA required Free Movement of People?

    I said access to the Single market requires Free movement of people AKA tariff free access. That doesn't exist with an FTA because an FTA can still have tariffs.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Okay, there are a bunch of Caribbean islands that are commonwealth with FTAs and Mauritius, right, so tiny economies we barely trade with and certainly not 60% (30) commonwealth members...

    Since you're insistent there are over 30 do you want to list them, the full fact list doesn't have that many.

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    Actually, the Caribbean markets are the 2nd largest EU trading market after the US.

    IF they are so tiny, then I have no clue why the grand economic plan is to waste time pursuing trade agreements with them. Like the article points out, a 10% drop in business with the EU requires a 40% rise in trade with the entire of the Commonwealth.

    I said that there are trade agreements in place. I didn't say they were in force.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Actually, the Caribbean markets are the 2nd largest EU trading market after the US.

    IF they are so tiny, then I have no clue why the grand economic plan is to waste time pursuing trade agreements with them. Like the article points out, a 10% drop in business with the EU requires a 40% rise in trade with the entire of the Commonwealth.

    I said that there are trade agreements in place. I didn't say they were in force.
    You do realise the markets of the UK and rest of the EU are very very different? We also find that the total trade with the world outside the top 20 partners totals 800bn units, with the US is 516bn, China 467bn

    In fact, you got it the wrong way around, the EU is the Caribbeans second biggest after the US, EU exports to CARIFORUM? A grand total of 8bn Euros. We export about as much to Sweden alone as the EU exports to the entirety of CARIFORUM. We import more from Russia. There are 6 non EU countries we export more to than the entirety of the EU to CARIFORUM.

    So list the 30 with ratified agreements.

    http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...ons/caribbean/

    Oh, and worth noting that if we leave we will be, by a mile, the biggest trade partner, much bigger than the us even when you include our trade with the US

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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Actually, the Caribbean markets are the 2nd largest EU trading market after the US.

    IF they are so tiny, then I have no clue why the grand economic plan is to waste time pursuing trade agreements with them. Like the article points out, a 10% drop in business with the EU requires a 40% rise in trade with the entire of the Commonwealth.

    I said that there are trade agreements in place. I didn't say they were in force.
    In fact, the easiest way to know that the Caribbean Community isn't the second biggest market of the eu is to simply look at their GDP, not even $100bn, for it to be a bigger trade partner the trade would have to be an impossibly high 730% of their GDP

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    There's a lot going on beyond the existing agreements. Japan (3rd largest economy in the world) has a good chance of completion this year. America is at an advanced stage. Mercosur (South American trade bloc), India and many others in progress. Most of the Commonwealth countries already covered, 90% if those in progress complete. China is an important exception due to protectionist fears of Europe being flooded with cheap Chinese manufactured products, but Britain is making progress pursuading other EU members to begin talks on that.

    Here's the state of play trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/118238.htm

    And a map of current and pending trade deals


    It does take longer than it would on our own to do a trade deal via the EU, but the extra clout means we can open up deeper access to world markets, particularly services, as well as opening up more foreign direct investment opportunities.

    Philip Hammond among others have remarked that another issue is that the UK has no trade negotators currently because we haven't needed them for the past 40 years.
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    (Original post by spasmodic)
    There's a lot going on beyond the existing agreements. Japan (3rd largest economy in the world) has a good chance of completion this year. America is at an advanced stage. Mercosur (South American trade bloc), India and many others in progress. Most of the Commonwealth countries already covered, 90% if those in progress complete. China is an important exception due to protectionist fears of Europe being flooded with cheap Chinese manufactured products, but Britain is making progress pursuading other EU members to begin talks on that.

    Here's the state of play trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/118238.htm

    And a map of current and pending trade deals


    It does take longer than it would on our own to do a trade deal via the EU, but the extra clout means we can open up deeper access to world markets, particularly services, as well as opening up more foreign direct investment opportunities.

    Philip Hammond among others have remarked that another issue is that the UK has no trade negotators currently because we haven't needed them for the past 40 years.
    The UK could hire the negotiators that did the Swiss/Chinese FTA negotiations. They are most likely not Swiss or Chinese but highly paid professionals from the US or EU.
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    (Original post by spasmodic)
    There's a lot going on beyond the existing agreements. Japan (3rd largest economy in the world) has a good chance of completion this year. America is at an advanced stage. Mercosur (South American trade bloc), India and many others in progress. Most of the Commonwealth countries already covered, 90% if those in progress complete. China is an important exception due to protectionist fears of Europe being flooded with cheap Chinese manufactured products, but Britain is making progress pursuading other EU members to begin talks on that.

    Here's the state of play trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/118238.htm

    And a map of current and pending trade deals


    It does take longer than it would on our own to do a trade deal via the EU, but the extra clout means we can open up deeper access to world markets, particularly services, as well as opening up more foreign direct investment opportunities.

    Philip Hammond among others have remarked that another issue is that the UK has no trade negotators currently because we haven't needed them for the past 40 years.
    It takes longer and they are far more prone to collapsing or never being ratified. They are also less tailored to the needs of Britain who have a generally different market to the rest of the EU. What must also be remembered are two things: first that once you drop down to third in GDP everything starts bunching together, second, that while a significant portion of the commonwealth is already covered, it is primarily the tiny little economies weaker than regions of the UK, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly alone have a stronger economy than Jamaica, which makes up getting on for a quarter of the commonwealth component of the Caribbean Forum economy. London has nearly 4 times the Caribbean Forum total GDP, Manchester alone crushes the commonwealth component. Liverpool or Leeds/Bradford are as strong as the commonwealth component.

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    In this video presentation, a man from Denmark exposes how EU uses media/scaremongering to manipulate the public into choosing to stay. He uses true facts and true incidents that have happened in Denmark in the past (since the 70's), and how EU failed to manipulate. He also compares these incidents with the current EU referendum that is happening in the UK.

    Very awesome video, take a look:



    The facts are very true. You will realise that they are true if you do some research.

    I have also did some research on Wikipedia which says that Denmark did reject the Euro in a referendum on 2000:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmar..._Faroe_Islands

    If you look at 9:10, he explains that before the Euro Referendum in 2015, the PM of Denmark tells everyone on all newspapers that
    "Voting 'no' to the Euro will cost everyone, it will cost our safety, our influence and it will be expensive. It will also cost old people their pensions. Think about your family and children, Im sure they will deserve a Yes vote"
    But the country instead voted "No" to the Euro. The next day, the newspaper showed that there was a "calm on the financial market of Denmark" The Stock value of Denmark went up. The Danish Krauner kept its value and the interest rates also didnt change. Denmark is now doing much better than most countries in the EU and they do not have the Euro.But they had all of the scaremongering before the 2015 Euro referendum encouraging them to vote in the Euro.

    Most Remain supporters in the UK keep believing in David Cameron's propaganda but do not think about what if its not true? They reject the evidence or dont even bother looking for it. The remain supporters fall for the propaganda. They start thinking "David Cameron, George Osborne, Bank of England.. said so and so is going to happen if we leave, We're in trouble". All of these have money dealings with the EU in Brussels, so they are obviously going to convince you to stay.
 
 
 
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