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I voted leave but hope we have a Switzerland type deal watch

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    (Original post by Castro Saint)
    If you think we're gonna get any kind of nice deal you're going to be disappointed. Upon leaving the EU we will be treated harshly and made an example of to deter other countries from getting the same idea. Yet another thing leave voters did not think through.
    The other countries are insignificant in this. We are the 5th largest economy and Germany have already made it clear that it'd be absolutely stupid to spite themselves just to spite us. If that's their attitude then let them go ahead because it would see the collapse of the Euro and their very own project. Germany, and especially Merkel and other business leaders, have made it very clear that they are not as in a strong position when negotiating with us as they would be when negotiating with Greece or Spain. Its pretty easy to give us a fair deal because of our size and importance to their economic aims. Its completely incomparable to Spain or other countries doing it because they are not in as good a position as us.

    Lets just remember our currency just plummeted and is still stronger than the Euro.
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    A Switzerland type deal will satisfy a majority of leave supporters and the remain side. We'll still have that pathetic minority on the leave side though
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The Norway/Switzerland model means you only have to comply with their product regulations when you export to the EU. You don't have to apply their regulations in the domestic market, including their labour market regulations.
    Norway have to comply all the time because they are also in the EEA. I'd rather go the Switzerland route with a bilateral trade agreement.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The Norway/Switzerland model means you only have to comply with their product regulations when you export to the EU. You don't have to apply their regulations in the domestic market, including their labour market regulations.

    In the EU, you might have a business that never exports as your entire market is within the UK, but you have to apply all EU regulation in full.
    The Norwegian model requires harmonization with EU regulations even for their domestic market, it is part of the single market and therefore all rules do apply, the only exemption is no CFP and CAP.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    I think this suggestion sounds sensible on the face of it.

    The problems would be that the EU won't like point 1. The Swiss voted in a referendum to put quotas on migration but the EU have said if they impose them then their single market access agreements will be invalid.

    The EU also has had a lot of arguments with Switzerland about this so they are unlikely to let us go down that road. Also we would want to go further than Switzerland because they don't have passport for financial services so their banks have to locate inside the EU, and thats a real problem for us.

    I think we might have to offer up full free movement to start talking of a Swiss type deal.
    Precisely. Further, Switzerland currently have to accept many EU regulations in order to have been allowed to buy back into the single market. People talk about sovereignty but Switzerland relinquished much of theirs for this reason. But they had to do it. Prior to buying in, they experienced the longest-recorded recession in OECD history, which only stopped once access to the single market was secured. The EU called the terms.

    Will this be the case with the UK? You elude to the banking issue. People talk about the UK being the world's fifth largest economy but remember that this is mostly on the back of The City of London's financial services sector and its unrestricted access to the European capital markets. So we must buy back in or we're in trouble. The EU is obviously acutely aware of this and Frankfurt and Paris would be more than willing to take the slack. I'm assuming free movement of people is an absolute given. I'd bet everything I have on that.

    So this is why I'm not extremely worried about the result. Of course it's a mistake because - like Switzerland - we'll have no veto power but you can rest assured that our European friends living and working in Blighty won't have to go anywhere and we will continue to have a strong, varied and diverse work force.......like Switzerland
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    I totally agree, needs to be an arrangement to rollback full EU membership to either a Norway or Swiss agreement, even if its a half way measure it becomes a better first set that will reduce a lot of the uncertainty that's in place at the moment
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    The point most people miss about this is when we export to the US we have to comply with US product regulations, when we export to China we have to comply with theirs etc, this is a central point of exporting.

    The difference with the EU was that we had to apply their regulations to our domestic market as well, so the labour market rules have to apply to hairdressers etc who will never export. Now there are some arguments for why that makes the single market work better, but it is accepting a compromise on sovereignty when those rules may not be things we want. So outside, yes we will have to accept their rules when we export to their markets but we don't have to apply their rules to ours. They have to comply with ours when they export to us.

    There is one argument about influence that will be relevant though over time, that the UK was generally a force for opening up markets and doing better regulation in the EU. It had to persuade and call in favours to get things done but at least that voice was there (alongside some other generally open countries from Northern Europe). When we are out there's a danger it will be dominated by the southern European countries who are much more likely to favour vested interest groups. So this might mean that we start to see the regulations that affect our exports to the EU are more annoying and the Germans might think FFS it was better when the UK was in here and we had a voice of sense.
    Interesting points. Can't rep unfortunately.
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    (Original post by welshiee)
    When it comes to immigration I believe the supply must meet the demand, and as such the UK government are to blame for not building enough houses to meet the demand, not creating enough school places and making teaching an attractive profession, not improving public transport and infrastructure, not improving the NHS and keeping our doctors here and not implementing good social policies and controls to allow new migrants to integrate with very little issues.

    The best solution is to join EFTA and then move forward on that basis. Why would this be a good thing?

    1. We can implement a unilateral safeguard so that supply can meet the demand
    2. We should have a set of bilateral trade agreements with the EU
    3. We can open ourselves up to the wider world even with the agreement above
    4. It will allow the EU to move forward with its political aims without us
    5. It will add stability to the markets in both the UK and Europe
    6. We should push for more devolution in our regions as Switzerland has done
    7. We are one of the founding members of EFTA before joining the EEC in 73
    8. There will only be a partial application of EU law
    9. Outside the CAP and CFP
    10. Smaller contributions to the EU budget per capita

    We should not see this as wanting to leave the European street, but wanting to become next door neighbours rather than roommates. We do not have the same outlook as the EU but that doesn't mean we need to sulk and leave completely.

    An EFTA type deal, as Dan Hannan has alluded to, is in the interests of all parties moving forward in terms of both political and economic aims. This is the most sensible, least damaging and best option for us.
    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    I think this suggestion sounds sensible on the face of it.

    The problems would be that the EU won't like point 1. The Swiss voted in a referendum to put quotas on migration but the EU have said if they impose them then their single market access agreements will be invalid.

    The EU also has had a lot of arguments with Switzerland about this so they are unlikely to let us go down that road. Also we would want to go further than Switzerland because they don't have passport for financial services so their banks have to locate inside the EU, and thats a real problem for us.

    I think we might have to offer up full free movement to start talking of a Swiss type deal.
    I have thought that, perhaps, the UK could agree with the Tobin tax now. It would tax every financial transaction at 0.1% or lower, bringing several dozens of billions overall.

    The UK could offer that in exchange of access to the European market, without freedom of movement (albeit a partial form of that will have to be conceded, for tourists and skilled workers).

    Considering that the UK would be, by far, the main contributor to this tax and that it would increase the European budget by something like 50%, the EU could agree with that deal. The good point for the UK is that its taxpayers wouldn't pay for it.

    The UK sabotaged any attempt to implement this tax when it was discussed in 2011 and later, but the situation has changed now.
 
 
 
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