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    (Original post by swanderfeild)
    HSBC isn't planning to move thousand jobs from London to Paris
    Certainly not. France has been blocked by communist unions for two months. If HSBC moves, they will go to Dublin or Rotterdam, not to a failed country.
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty.
    Yes, because so far nothing has changed and nothing is legally expected to change before at least two years.

    What I find the most worrying is that the Tories are going through a "normal" leadership election that is only expected to be over in autumn. They should start doing it now,instead of wasting three months. I also have the impression that Osborne hadn't prepared a contingency plan in case of Brexit.

    Markets and businesses wouldn't be so worried if the Leave campaign had prepared a realistic outline of what they would do.

    Hopefully, Corbyn will be replaced by a business-friendly and constructive opposition.
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    (Original post by 999tigger)
    Much too early to tell yet. We need to be looking at the results after 1,2,4,5,10, 15, 20 years to see what effect it has had on the economy.
    Thus third day reports of catastrophe are exaggerated. Right?
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    (Original post by Josb)
    Yes, because so far nothing has changed and nothing is legally expected to change before at least two years.

    What I find the most worrying is that the Tories are going through a "normal" leadership election that is only expected to be over in autumn. They should start doing it now,instead of wasting three months. I also have the impression that Osborne hadn't prepared a contingency plan in case of Brexit.

    Markets and businesses wouldn't be so worried if the Leave campaign had prepared a realistic outline of what they would do.

    Hopefully, Corbyn will be replaced by a business-friendly and constructive opposition.
    I'm quite comforted by the slowness of the process. The sky is not going to fall in, we've seen that the BoE and Treasury have shored up the markets. There isn't widescale civil unrest (although the rise of hate crime is very worrying) or fear of a bank run.

    The best thing for now is to leave the civil service and the BoE to steward the economy. The markets will prefer this to a rushed political leadership election and politicians making claims and counter claims. Notice how UK Gilts interest rates have fallen, tells me that the market is actually happier with a bureaucratic government than what preceded it!

    I think if leave had made it clear what they were going to do and they started doing it, the markets would be very alarmed.
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    There's no catastrophe at all lol It's only been a couple days since the vote, and this isn't an immediate process either approaching a drop. Things will turn up obviously.
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    I think if leave had made it clear what they were going to do and they started doing it, the markets would be very alarmed.
    I mean if Leave had said that they wanted a Norwegian deal, it wouldn't cause much trouble now.

    The problem is that nobody knows what will be negotiated.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Thus third day reports of catastrophe are exaggerated. Right?
    Let's not be under anu illusions. There has been a huge bailout of the banks through the BoE that went essentially unnoticed with all the political carnage going on.
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    (Original post by Josb)
    I mean if Leave had said that they wanted a Norwegian deal, it wouldn't cause much trouble.

    The problem is that nobody knows what will be negotiated.
    That would not have won the referendum because it would not have addressed immigration.
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    It is fantastic for exports. Businesses like JCB who export all over the world are laughing right now. Nothing stimulates demand in an economy like depreciation, it is like a shot of adrenaline.

    The big down side is that everything we import in will be more expensive. This particularly hurts people whos incomes are fixed like students and pensioners, public sector workers. Holidays will be more expensive. Food will be more expensive. Electronics will be more expensive.

    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty. Because businesses don't know what the terms of Brexit will be, they are just going to do nothing and baton down the hatches. They will stop investing, they will stop hiring, they will start letting people go. Even export businesses that are profiting will do the same, simply because they don't know what the rules are going to be.

    Whether there will be a GDP recession in the next 6 months is hard to say because of the impact of the devaluation may outweigh the hit to investment and domestic spending. However what I'm pretty confident about is that job creation will grind to a halt and job destruction will increase as companies that suffer from Brexit start firing and companies that benefit will likely just work their staff harder and pay them a bonus rather than employ more people.
    This is why Cameron's delay and Osborne's fumbling is intentional. They hope that the economy grinds to a halt because of the uncertainty they created. They will blame this on the referendum, call another and so on until they get the result they want.
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    (Original post by swanderfeild)
    So after several days of continuous downturn, because one index gone up for one day means its suddenly "all fine"? So we haven't had credit rating downgraded, quarter of companies won't impose hiring freezes and move operations abroad, HSBC isn't planning to move thousand jobs from London to Paris, Morgan Stanley isn't planning to do same with 2000 jobs, companies aren't already moving investment to EU, and pound isn't at worse than in 2009. Clearly everything is fine because share values bounced back to recoup half the value it lost since referendum.
    Traders call it a dead cat bounce.
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    LMAOOO brexiters thinking its all calm even though we havent even triggered article 50 let alone left the EU.

    Note: No one ever seem to talk about our abysmal credit rating or the prospect of big businesses outshoring and worsening our trade deficit
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    (Original post by 41b)
    This is why Cameron's delay and Osborne's fumbling is intentional. They hope that the economy grinds to a halt because of the uncertainty they created. They will blame this on the referendum, call another and so on until they get the result they want.
    I think that might be right.

    The old fashioned Maggie Thatcher strategy of making people suffer in the short term to help in the long term. Requires you to be very tough though. Thankfully Jeremy Hunt, Theresa May and George Osborne are tough *******s.
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    (Original post by Observatory)

    If they are just speculating that one might happen in the future, this should be made more clear in their reporting.
    My firm are starting to see some effects, property deals going off; one planned investment switched to France. However there is as of yet no real idea of scale and a number of deals have been confirmed as still on.

    Two key parts of the economy are development/construction and retail.

    The stock market is a poor proxy for the real economy in times of crisis because in normal times dealers gamble about what will happen based upon what has happened. In a crisis they gamble about what will happen based upon their gambles about what has happened.


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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    It is fantastic for exports. Businesses like JCB who export all over the world are laughing right now. Nothing stimulates demand in an economy like depreciation, it is like a shot of adrenaline.

    The big down side is that everything we import in will be more expensive. This particularly hurts people whos incomes are fixed like students and pensioners, public sector workers. Holidays will be more expensive. Food will be more expensive. Electronics will be more expensive.

    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty. Because businesses don't know what the terms of Brexit will be, they are just going to do nothing and baton down the hatches. They will stop investing, they will stop hiring, they will start letting people go. Even export businesses that are profiting will do the same, simply because they don't know what the rules are going to be.

    Whether there will be a GDP recession in the next 6 months is hard to say because of the impact of the devaluation may outweigh the hit to investment and domestic spending. However what I'm pretty confident about is that job creation will grind to a halt and job destruction will increase as companies that suffer from Brexit start firing and companies that benefit will likely just work their staff harder and pay them a bonus rather than employ more people.
    Some firms will stop investing because banks won't lend in case Britain does not get a good trade deal.

    Firms will either have to stay still, srink or invest abroad in the EU. Multinationals can be more flexible since most already have a presence in the EU and they can simply switch investments from Britain to the EU. This would be attractive to major manufacturers like Nissan that exports a large percentage of their cars to the EU and don't want the hassle of tariffs, customs and work visas for their staff.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Didn't you hear? There are no experts any more. My opinion is as good as Mark Carney's, because Leave said so. Seems I'm being proved right day by day. Why should I respect an emotional and angry answer devoid of facts and knowledge? Why should I respect a vote where it's been exposed already that all the major spokespeople knowingly lied about everything, and are now backpedalling? Parliament is sovereign, and that's what I'll respect.
    You wouldn't be churning out this rubbish had Brexit not won. The fact that Brexit won has made you and many others like you, let the masks slip from your faces. Have I lost you? Allow me to explain. Cameron put a question to the people. The people exercised their democratic right in the form of answering that question at the ballot box. The votes were tallied in full view of voting officials and the media. Brexit emerged victorious. So what is your problem right now?

    Btw, which university did you graduate from? and did you really graduate with a PhD in constitutional law? You don't sound like someone who did. Because if you really possess a PhD you exercise loads of patience and be able to give answers that are detailed, backed up with sources and most importantly, the interaction should come across as an exchange of information.

    Now, it seems like your ego is not only bruised badly because Vote Leave and the Leave Campaign won but you're making up all sorts of stories to justify why the referendum result should not be respected. Really? Do you really think Boris, Gove, Theresa May, Grayling will commit political hara-kiri by setting aside the referendum result?

    Bicker all you want. The fact remains. Brexit was achieved.

    Oh and btw, his speech this morning in the European parliament has been viewed over 3.3 million times on his facebook page. Do you think Boris, Gove and the rest of the clique can ever garner such a following? Precisely

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    (Original post by gladders)
    Which is why most economic experts say remaining was best for business.

    Which is why every foreign country we would want to trade with wanted us to Remain.

    But yeah, the people have had enough of experts. Let's just have Gary down the pub be Chancellor of the Exchequer.

    Honestly, I swear a few months ago there was a thread on here demanding that ministers ought to have a degree in the ministerial brief they had. Now that's being overlooked.
    There's literally an entire documentary which explains the political and economic benefits of leaving the EU and why big businesses and experts want us to stay. If you're actually interested in hearing the other side to the argument, check it out

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k

    if not, get off your high horse and stop acting as if you know it all.
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    (Original post by TheTechN1304)
    There's literally an entire documentary which explains the political and economic benefits of leaving the EU and why big businesses and experts want us to stay. If you're actually interested in hearing the other side to the argument, check it out

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k

    if not, get off your high horse and stop acting as if you know it all.
    You might wanna follow your own advice too
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    (Original post by Audrey18)
    You wouldn't be churning out this rubbish had Brexit not won. The fact that Brexit won has made you and many others like you, let the masks slip from your faces. Have I lost you? Allow me to explain. Cameron put a question to the people. The people exercised their democratic right in the form of answering that question at the ballot box. The votes were tallied in full view of voting officials and the media. Brexit emerged victorious. So what is your problem right now?
    My problem is that a) the public were lied to by the Leave campaign, b) everything Remain warned is being proved true, and c) Parliament is sovereign and can save us from this stupidity.

    Btw, which university did you graduate from? and did you really graduate with a PhD in constitutional law? You don't sound like someone who did. Because if you really possess a PhD you exercise loads of patience and be able to give answers that are detailed, backed up with sources and most importantly, the interaction should come across as an exchange of information.
    Where did you get the notion I have a PhD? I never claimed that.

    Now, it seems like your ego is not only bruised badly because Vote Leave and the Leave Campaign won but you're making up all sorts of stories to justify why the referendum result should not be respected. Really? Do you really think Boris, Gove, Theresa May, Grayling will commit political hara-kiri by setting aside the referendum result?
    Nah, not making it up. That's what Brexiters do. Seeing as Boris Johnson is already not respecting the result by talking about staying in the Single Market (and acknowledging this means free movement), tough buns to you.

    Bicker all you want. The fact remains. Brexit was achieved.
    Nah. Ignorant people won a glorified opinion poll. Parliament is what matters, and according to the great Tory Edmund Burke:

    "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."

    Oh and btw, his speech this morning in the European parliament has been viewed over 3.3 million times on his facebook page. Do you think Boris, Gove and the rest of the clique can ever garner such a following? Precisely

    Like I give a fig what the racist, ignorant, manipulative Farage says. I take more stock in the speech of Alan Smyth MEP.
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    The result was a shock and the reaction has just lead to a multiplier effect of "dead cat bounces" in the stock market.

    What worries me is, officially we have not even began negotiating (no Article 50 trigger yet) and economic outlook and opinion of pretty much everyone who works in the finance industry is low. Now even if we ignore the recent events then we haven't really even had the full shock yet.

    Also people show a very small understanding of the stock market, while FTSE 100 is a good measure of economy, FTSE 250 provides a better idea. In addition, despite the market actually starting to "recover" (considering we still hadn't recovered from the 2008 crash I find this rather confusing) people have forgotten that yes some companies lost value over the past week but others gained so on a whole it does not currently look as bad. However if you begin to look at individual cases the issue can be highlighted better. Barclays, for example, has effectively lost 25% of it's worth.

    Now, looking at a more individual level, one can see there is a clear impact on housing, banking and travel. Travel companies will still be fine as travel will continue, although I do expect their growth to decrease. As for banks, they will slowly over the next 5/10 years progress jobs over to other EU states unless we get a good deal which in turn would decrease London's prominence and hence England's. As for housing, we already had a crisis so god knows how we will have enough housing.

    Now I am sure my comments will be belittled and linked to "scare tactics" however this is my own opinion based on working within Engineering and Finance. However, in reality I believe very little will change over the next two years, I suspect we will remain a member of the EEA and all we have done is caused economic growth to slow and probably just wasted time to fix ourselves before the next market crash occurs in ~30 years.
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    As the All Share index almost regains its pre-Brexit peak, it's looking increasingly clear that this mini-crash was just dumb money leaving the market.
 
 
 
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