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Thoughts on a 'CANZUK' Union post-Brexit Watch

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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    They could easily argue against CANZUK using the same arguements people had against the EU.
    Yeah but I think the main objection a large chunk of leavers had with the EU was that we were not ruling it like we used to rule our empire. I don't think these people really understand why someone would not want to be ruled by us.
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    (Original post by richpanda)
    Sorry why is Australia being excluded from this? Is there a reason why? Also this could potentially include India.
    An area with a horrible caste system and massive problem with brutal sexism.

    I thought we left the EU to escape the backward Muslims/Syrians/African refugees/migrants from destroying our culture of liberal values.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    CANZUK would be overwhelmingly controlled by the UK though, so why on Earth would Canada, Australia and New Zealand agree to it?
    Would it? The UK would be the largest single member but it would have less than half the total population. The others could outvote the UK if they wanted.

    EDIT: Another possibility is that the UK could join as the four home nations, rather than as the UK, and that Ireland could also join. That would solve a lot of other problems.

    They could easily argue against CANZUK using the same arguements people had against the EU.
    I don't think so. The key argument I have made is that CANZUK are already extremely similar in a way that Spain, Sweden and Bulgaria are not. You think Canada would be worried about the UK outvoting it - what exactly would the UK vote for that Canada would strongly oppose? It is like asking why Lincolnshire would agree to be part of England when it will always get outvoted by Manchester.
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    I think a United States of Europe would be the best solution for Britain and this is why I voted remain (or would have were I two months older), in the hope that such an institution eventually would arise. I don't think the EU as it is is perfect, and I think letting in the Eastern European countries with free movement was a mistake because of the strains on immigration it caused (I think an associate member status without free movement would be a better solution to this). But I think a USE could generate much more coherent foreign policy and exert its political will to more effect, and (contrary to many people's beliefs) I also think an EU army would also give the union more credibility as a 'nation' and allow it to become a bigger player on the world stage, without having to rely on America.

    To this extent, a CANZUK union is arguably better placed to achieve these goals. I think it won't become as strong as a USE could be, mainly due to its smaller economic and demographic numbers, which is why it's my second choice - but it is still a very credible second choice. The free movement principle amongst these countries is unlikely to come under strain as GDP per capita is similar so net migration should be negligible. The risk of cultural clash is as low as it will ever be between multiple countries in union because there is practically no differences, perhaps marginal (like England and Scotland) but not significant. The only potential problem I see with this is resistance from French Canadians, who make up a minority but not an insignificant minority. I reject the idea proposed above about America joining though. For starters they would never do such a thing in the first place, and secondly any union that they did hypothetically enter they would dominate. The advantage of this is that each country is relatively strong by itself, and with only 4 partners as opposed to 28 in the EU it's much easier to compensate for everyone's views (and said views are more cohesive than EU views anyway). We have banking, access to the European market and a nuclear deterrent, Canada have natural resources and access to the US market, and ANZ have resources and access to China, which collectively covers the three biggest world economies and ensures that everybody makes a significant contribution so cannot be marginalised. I don't think this should be extended to other Commonwealth nations unless they have similar GDP per capita figures and a similar culture, otherwise this will cause immigration problems. Realistically the only country I can really see joining in addition to CANZUK would be Singapore, or possibly South Africa once it develops further.
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    Yeah but I think the main objection a large chunk of leavers had with the EU was that we were not ruling it like we used to rule our empire.
    Sure, though I'm thinking about it from the perspective of an Australian, Canadian, etc.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Would it? The UK would be the largest single member but it would have less than half the total population. The others could outvote the UK if they wanted.

    I don't think so. The key argument I have made is that CANZUK are already extremely similar in a way that Spain, Sweden and Bulgaria are not. You think Canada would be worried about the UK outvoting it - what exactly would the UK vote for that Canada would strongly oppose? It is like asking why Lincolnshire would agree to be part of England when it will always get outvoted by Manchester.
    Based on a Google search the UK would have 50.5% of the population of CANZUK, unless I've calculated it wrong. You'd assume that'd mean 50% of the influence politically, though that would depend on how power is shared and how voting works at a Union level.

    You tell me? I'm not convinced that CANZ are as closely knit with the UK as you say they are, at least not enough to hold hands and happily walk into what would be a very one-sided relationship.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Based on a Google search the UK would have 50.5% of the population of CANZUK, unless I've calculated it wrong. You'd assume that'd mean 50% of the influence politically, though that would depend on how power is shared and how voting works at a Union level.

    You tell me? I'm not convinced that CANZ are as closely knit with the UK as you say they are, at least not enough to hold hands and happily walk into what would be a very one-sided relationship.
    Learning the lessons from our membership of the EU we could avoid voting power by population (perhaps one country, one vote). There are structures to play with.

    Before we left them join the EU we actually had a dual citizenship arrangement with Australia at one point and more than half of New Zealand's imports were British. In that sense it's entirely possible that they've long abandoned such thoughts of us but many of us i suppose have a bit of romanticism about what could be.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    Based on a Google search the UK would have 50.5% of the population of CANZUK, unless I've calculated it wrong. You'd assume that'd mean 50% of the influence politically, though that would depend on how power is shared and how voting works at a Union level.

    You tell me? I'm not convinced that CANZ are as closely knit with the UK as you say they are, at least not enough to hold hands and happily walk into what would be a very one-sided relationship.
    I don't think they are close-knit with the UK, I think they are all very similar to one another. I am not proposing the re-establishment of the British Empire (which, by the way, never involved much direct UK dictation of Canadian or Australian policy), but rather a federation probably with a lower house elected with population weighting and a senate in which the smaller memberstates have outsized influence.

    Now let's accept your 50.5% figure for the UK population fraction. In what circumstances would it matter? I find it very difficult to imagine a situation in which the UK would vote en bloc for a proposal and the other members would vote en bloc against it. In a way that I don't find it difficult to imagine a proposal that would have 80% support in France and 20% support in the UK.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Learning the lessons from our membership of the EU we could avoid voting power by population (perhaps one country, one vote). There are structures to play with.
    I think the main problem with the EU is that it is really governed by the bureaucracy, and it is really governed by the bureaucracy because the disparate nations can't produce an elected government with any coherent policy. The bureaucracy rules because there is no other way to rule a multinational empire.

    That wouldn't be the case in a CANZUK union. It is easy to imagine a single cabinet speaking the same language (French-Canadians might go nuts, but...) composed of people who are known to and chosen by the populations of all the member countries and who spontaneously share most views and assumptions in common. Which indeed existed just about within living memory: the Imperial War Cabinet.

    The biggest flaw of the EU - undemocratic rule-by-official - would not be necessary because democratic government would be practical and indeed natural.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    I don't think they are close-knit with the UK, I think they are all very similar to one another. I am not proposing the re-establishment of the British Empire (which, by the way, never involved much direct UK dictation of Canadian or Australian policy), but rather a federation probably with a lower house elected with population weighting and a senate in which the smaller memberstates have outsized influence.

    Now let's accept your 50.5% figure for the UK population fraction. In what circumstances would it matter? I find it very difficult to imagine a situation in which the UK would vote en bloc for a proposal and the other members would vote en bloc against it. In a way that I don't find it difficult to imagine a proposal that would have 80% support in France and 20% support in the UK.
    I don't think it matters how likely that is, my point is that people will still believe it anyway. You could have said the same thing about the EU, yet that didn't stop people from believing that France and Germany control it all.

    If anything, Austrlia, Canada and New Zealand would have greater reason to believe that than we did/do.
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    (Original post by SHallowvale)
    I don't think it matters how likely that is, my point is that people will still believe it anyway. You could have said the same thing about the EU, yet that didn't stop people from believing that France and Germany control it all.

    If anything, Austrlia, Canada and New Zealand would have greater reason to believe that than we did/do.
    True, although I don't think that was a very important reason we voted to leave the EU, which indeed we only just did.

    As I said I don't expect a CANZUK union to actually happen until and unless those countries feel that a Western military power other than the US is necessary. So it may never happen. But I think when that day comes, it could happen very quickly, very quickly come to be seen as natural, very quickly come to be seen as irreversible.
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    Australia, Canada and NZ won't join a union with Britain since they all know Britain only wants to have other countries to boss about and leave in a huff if it doesn't get its way.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Australia, Canada and NZ won't join a union with Britain since they all know Britain only wants to have other countries to boss about and leave in a huff if it doesn't get its way.
    I can realistically see CANZ not joining because of its imperial connotations, but I think the notion that Britain just wants to boss other countries around is false, or misinterpreted. The issue over sovereignty in the EU referendum was because laws could be imposed on Britain even if Britain objected whilst the other countries voted in favour, not that Britain wanted to boss around other EU countries. A CANZUK union would be mutually beneficial in a number of senses, and as the countries agree on most things (and have only 4 countries to persuade rather than 28) a union is somewhat more feasible, particularly if it was styled as a federation with significant regional governance in addition to a central government.
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    I wouldn't want political union, just voted out of that for a reason. I'm not sure about this, I'm rather intrigued by the link with India, and Hong Kong even, and not sure about just a 'white commonwealth' link. That's not out full story or that broadening or ambitious. The other thing- I think that we have not really seen much of climate change yet, it is accelerating now and people have not been able to process how it could turn us upside down- I think Australia may become wrecked by it, and I'm not sure about what would happen to swathes of India too. Even Hong Kong could be wrecked or turned upside down, because these places are already extremely hot.
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    (Original post by JRKinder)
    I can realistically see CANZ not joining because of its imperial connotations, but I think the notion that Britain just wants to boss other countries around is false, or misinterpreted. The issue over sovereignty in the EU referendum was because laws could be imposed on Britain even if Britain objected whilst the other countries voted in favour, not that Britain wanted to boss around other EU countries. A CANZUK union would be mutually beneficial in a number of senses, and as the countries agree on most things (and have only 4 countries to persuade rather than 28) a union is somewhat more feasible, particularly if it was styled as a federation with significant regional governance in addition to a central government.
    Any group of countries working together need compromise and the minority has to accept the decisions of the majority. Britain does not want to accept this arrangement so I can't see how any group of countries would have a pact with Britain.
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    (Original post by Maker)
    Any group of countries working together need compromise and the minority has to accept the decisions of the majority. Britain does not want to accept this arrangement so I can't see how any group of countries would have a pact with Britain.
    All countries are willing to compromise within a given range of opinions but not outside that range.

    Russia is not a member of the EU and there is no suggestion that the EU will reform so as to allow Russia to join. The same was true of the Warsaw Pact countries in the past. The EU is willing to compromise between Bulgarian and Spanish views but not German and Russian views.

    I believe that Britain would be willing to compromise with Canada and Australia because they do not differ on very much.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    I wouldn't want political union, just voted out of that for a reason. I'm not sure about this, I'm rather intrigued by the link with India, and Hong Kong even, and not sure about just a 'white commonwealth' link. That's not out full story or that broadening or ambitious. The other thing- I think that we have not really seen much of climate change yet, it is accelerating now and people have not been able to process how it could turn us upside down- I think Australia may become wrecked by it, and I'm not sure about what would happen to swathes of India too. Even Hong Kong could be wrecked or turned upside down, because these places are already extremely hot.
    I think any political union between these countries would have to be loose, as this referendum has demonstrated that the majority of people don't desire a powerful central body. As such, I think some sort of federal system could be appropriate as this allows for regional variance whilst CANZUK could conduct foreign policy together, which is similar now anyway. The problem with having India join in is that it's culturally quite different to us and wealth inequality is high, so free movement would never work unless you wanted (quite literally) hundreds of millions of poor Indians emigrating here in search of jobs - it would be like EU immigration on steroids. As we have similar a GDP per capita with the CANZUK nations, this problem wouldn't arise (although I can see how racial/ethnic interpretations could be brought into this, I'm arguing based on economic, political and militaristic reasons).
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    (Original post by JRKinder)
    I think any political union between these countries would have to be loose, as this referendum has demonstrated that the majority of people don't desire a powerful central body. As such, I think some sort of federal system could be appropriate as this allows for regional variance whilst CANZUK could conduct foreign policy together, which is similar now anyway. The problem with having India join in is that it's culturally quite different to us and wealth inequality is high, so free movement would never work unless you wanted (quite literally) hundreds of millions of poor Indians emigrating here in search of jobs - it would be like EU immigration on steroids. As we have similar a GDP per capita with the CANZUK nations, this problem wouldn't arise (although I can see how racial/ethnic interpretations could be brought into this, I'm arguing based on economic, political and militaristic reasons).
    Yes, that's sensible. I still think we're better off just ass the UK and focused on ojr own affairs, not to mention NI and maybe even potentially Ireland being in the UK ins some arrangement long term, when wounds are healed. It is changing massively.
    I do think OZ could become a wasteland and a desert wen climate change gets serious.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    This is that attitude that will see us kicked into the long grass. That we should somehow be able to"control" Europe but can't so we'll leave. But because we created Canada and Australia we will somehow rule over them to our own advantage.

    You really need to accept that the days of Empire are long gone and the attitude of rose tinted glasses will get us no where. I can guarantee that Auss and Canada will drive a hard bargin just as the EU do.
    Who said anything about controlling Europe.

    The relationships in the two groups are different. With much of the Commonwealth it's more like a family with similar ideologies and ideas, but those cousins that just can't stop fighting in the form of India and Pakistan, and the weird one that decided to go and live as a hermit in Southern Rhodesia.

    The EU is the street where everybody tolerates each other begrudgingly. Britain, France, and Germany live in the big houses at the end of yje street but don't exactly get on, especially Britain and Germany with France. You get Greece being the alcoholic hobo living in a bush that begs everybody, especially the top of the street for momey, and for some reason is never told to clear off. In the German household the Father has different ideas to everybody else on the street and is disliked because of it by everybody else. Italy is the strange house a bit down the road which somehow manages to get by despite seemingly doing little work. Next you get the eastern Europeans being the ones near the entrance to the road, they do all the dirty jobs for the rest of the households, but are then blamed because little Timmy is too busy playing videogames to get s job.

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    It's called the Anglosphere - in case this hasn't been mentioned already.
 
 
 
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