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Article 50 to be triggered in March

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The significant hit to growth does not come from Brexit, it comes from the uncertainty post-vote.

    The treasury's worst case scenario was for GDP to decline 1.5% across 2017-2018 followed by growth around 0.3% lower each year out to 2030.

    While i actually priced in a recession into my vote it does seem as though there's none coming.
    The significant growth hit, if there is one, would come when the future relationship with the EU is announced, especially if we are not in the Single Market.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The significant growth hit, if there is one, would come when the future relationship with the EU is announced, especially if we are not in the Single Market.
    The biggest negative component to growth from Brexit is declining business investment and that happens from the vote to when the deal is announced. Businesses (most of which invest longer than 3 years) won't wait for the deal to react. They are reacting now.

    Fortunately the consumer seems not be affected as yet, hence why output has returned to normal after the initial panic.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The biggest negative component to growth from Brexit is declining business investment and that happens from the vote to when the deal is announced. Businesses (most of which invest longer than 3 years) won't wait for the deal to react. They are reacting now.

    Fortunately the consumer seems not be affected as yet, hence why output has returned to normal after the initial panic.
    A lot are likely to be waiting and seeing, just like Nissan. If we have access to the single market they have no reason to leave. If we don't they may well go and investment will drop.

    Consumer confidence at the moment is not the most reliable indicator. Your average person isn't going to stop getting the weekly shop because of something that may or may not happen in the future. Most people are simply getting on with their lives.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    A lot are likely to be waiting and seeing, just like Nissan. If we have access to the single market they have no reason to leave. If we don't they may well go and investment will drop.

    Consumer confidence at the moment is not the most reliable indicator. Your average person isn't going to stop getting the weekly shop because of something that may or may not happen in the future. Most people are simply getting on with their lives.
    As the Leave vote was unexpected, no business used Brexit to make an immediate announcement of closure in the UK to "cover" a decision to move offshore made earlier for other reasons.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    A lot are likely to be waiting and seeing, just like Nissan. If we have access to the single market they have no reason to leave. If we don't they may well go and investment will drop.

    Consumer confidence at the moment is not the most reliable indicator. Your average person isn't going to stop getting the weekly shop because of something that may or may not happen in the future. Most people are simply getting on with their lives.
    Businesses which are 'waiting' are already postponing investment and ergo becoming a drag on growth. They won't build something to just to scrap it come 2019.

    Most consumer spending is not on essentials so it's a fairly good indicator that retail sales are still increasing. What happened in my opinion is that business panicked but the consumer did not, hence business then had to respond to the consumer or face falling inventories.
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    I might take a trip down to Dover at the end of February to watch all the hysteric holdover remainers fighting each other to get on the last ferries to Europe before the Iron Curtain descends.
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    (Original post by intelligent con)
    They're unelected. The people voted for cameron and now the government has been hijacked by the far right, revolutions like in the arab spring are the only way to oust this regime.
    We don't vote for the PM. The PM is the leader of the most elected party.
 
 
 
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