Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free
    Offline

    12
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by KingMessi)
    On a side note: wasn't today (the tenth) the day North Korea said all British and U.S. ambassadors should have left by?
    North Korea advised that foreign ambassadors should leave - it did not request that they do so. Specifically, North Korea advised that that foreign ambassadors should leave by April 10th as they would not be able to guarantee the safety of those ambassadors after April 10th (it's currently late morning/early afternoon on the Korean peninsula).

    Some analysts say that this is just further posturing and rhetoric on the part of North Korea. Others disagree.
    Offline

    12
    ReputationRep:
    North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch


    South Korea fears Pyongyang could launch up to three missiles after weeks of threats, according to local reports.

    South Korea and the US have upgraded their military surveillance status on the Korean Peninsula amid concerns Pyongyang is ready to fire up to three missiles.

    North Korea, which previously said it cannot guarantee the safety of foreign embassy workers after Wednesday, is believed to have moved weaponry to its eastern coast, facing Japan.

    It has also warned foreigners living in South Korea to leave the country to avoid being dragged into a "thermonuclear war".

    One unnamed official told the Yonhap news agency: "There are clear signs that the North could simultaneously fire off Musudan, Scud and Nodong missiles."

    The South has also brought in extra intelligence officers.

    In a separate report, Yonhap said the Combined Forces Command had raised the "Watchcon" status from three to two reflecting indications of a "vital threat".

    Watchcon 4 is in effect during normal peacetime, while Watchcon 3 reflects indications of an important threat. Watchcon 1 is used in wartime.



    So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).

    The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.

    Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.

    If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.

    In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    One thing I find worrying. The contract they had to open that hotel of theirs has been cancelled through all this. Unlike the industrial park they can't really reverse that and unlike the industrial park it was as much about making NK and its leadership look good as their economy which is allegedly the point of this whole exercise. They're sacrificing the thing they're supposedly after by taking this course.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    I seriously hope something is done about North Korea, military wise. Saying you will nuke someone is no laughing matter regardless of if you mean it or not. I hope he's assassinated by a SEAL team although the chance of it happening is slim.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch




    So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).

    The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.

    Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.

    If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.

    In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
    If NK fire a missile eastward it will almost certainly be shot down. Rightly so. If they want to test one they can fire it south into the east China sea like they did last time. Tho I don't see what good it would do them. NK can tell most of its population anything they want and in the eyes of those in the know randomly firing a missile under the guise of a test wouldnt really cut it. Firing a new missile with improved capabilities might but there's no suggestion that they have one. They've built more than one musudan so it's likely that it uses a proven design that they know will work. There's some suggestion that they're mockups but thats difficult to believe when they've already fired bigger ones.

    The actual rocket design is a liquid fuel rocket using a hypergolic combination of unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine as fuel, and inhibited red fuming nitric acid as oxidizer; this fuel/oxidizer combination does not vaporise like liquified hydrogen/oxygen gas at 35°C. As a result, once the fuel/oxidizer combination were fed into the missile, it could maintain a 'ready to launch' condition for several days, or even weeks, like the R-27 SLBM; however it could not be kept longer than this, because of tank corrosion caused by the red fuming nitric acid. A fueled Musudan would not have the structural strength to be land transported, so would have to be fueled at the launch site.[2]
    ttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BM25_Musudan

    Would be interesting to know if they've fueled them which we would presumably know since we can see them in position.I guess if they have a test may be a best case scenario as it would essentially an end to it and them firing the missiles as they're already used anyway and may as well learn what they can from them.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Idle)
    I seriously hope something is done about North Korea, military wise. Saying you will nuke someone is no laughing matter regardless of if you mean it or not. I hope he's assassinated by a SEAL team although the chance of it happening is slim.
    That would be unwise.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by green.tea)
    That would be unwise.
    Every option is "unwise" in some way. Unless there is actually some solid intelligence that the leadership is falling apart they need to go, sanctions have been tried and are not working. Kim Jong Un I hoped would be a change but he is as much of a nutter as his father.

    The international community can shout and moan all they want, when a country says they will nuke another then I cannot see how that is not legitimate grounds for their leadership to be eliminated.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    i predict that Loony Tunes will fire his missile on 15th April at Japan.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    Lets admit, if Kim Jong does actually have the courage to fire a missile at the US or one of its allies, NK is going to get blown of the face of the earth. Its not like I want it to happen, but I can't think of a country that would side with NK in a conflict against the US, and starting war with the US isn't the cleverest thing to do.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    Heard a news bulletin on the radio saying the US have intelligence that North Korea have fuelled at least one missile.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Idle)
    Every option is "unwise" in some way. Unless there is actually some solid intelligence that the leadership is falling apart they need to go, sanctions have been tried and are not working. Kim Jong Un I hoped would be a change but he is as much of a nutter as his father.

    The international community can shout and moan all they want, when a country says they will nuke another then I cannot see how that is not legitimate grounds for their leadership to be eliminated.
    That option would be extremely unwise. Firstly in the eyes of your average north Korean it would be akin to killing Mohamed. They wouldnt just think "ah he's dead now lets become a westernised democracy". They'd more likely launch an all out attack with everything they had not caring about the consequences for themselves. Additionally say we decided to give them the internet so they could come on here and see us talking about how great the death of their beloved leader is. It'd be like Koran burning x 1000. There isn't any opposition in NK to take over in such an eventuality. You don't kill him and have some other party take over because there just isn't one. The country falls into the hands of seething al queda with brains and nukes.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    If anything's going to happen, it will happen on the 15th. North Korea's Day of the Sun.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by nikkoch)
    Lets admit, if Kim Jong does actually have the courage to fire a missile at the US or one of its allies, NK is going to get blown of the face of the earth. Its not like I want it to happen, but I can't think of a country that would side with NK in a conflict against the US, and starting war with the US isn't the cleverest thing to do.
    He doesn't and they won't.

    The basic problem is that they have so little contact with the outside reality (maybe someone should parachute a mobile phone in to them!) that they think they can simply repeat their previous game of kicking up a huge stink and that they will then be given more wheat and oil. Not sure it will work this time though. The only plausible danger is that they have such a screw loose that, failing to get their own way with all this idiot bluster, they decide they must ramp up by sinking another ship or something. If they are nuts enough to do that again, I very much doubt that SK and the US are going to take it sitting down this time.
    Offline

    12
    ReputationRep:
    It can clearly be seen that Kim is now under pressure at home to actually make it look like he can follow upon his threats, thereby solidifying his authority and consolidating his power.

    In the past, we have seen such rhetoric as we see now culminating in a light attack (for example, sinking a sub or shelling an island) and the consequences have been tutting from the international community (and SK!) and "sanctions".

    Therefore, if North Korea decides to do as it has done in the past and shell an island or something, will SK and the US simply tut as they have done so before and run off to the UN to demand "sanctions"?

    Or will enough really be enough this time?


    Similarly, we can surely expect little response but tutting and shaking of heads if NK decides to go ahead with missile/nuclear tests that are said by US officials to be *imminent*? (Of course there is the issue of whether it will be shot down should it pass over any foreign territory like Japan.)
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    North Korea: South On Alert For Missile Launch




    So, the "Watchcon" status is now two, with the highest being 1 (similar DEFCON).

    The unfortunate thing, as analysts agree, is that *something* (we don't know what yet - possibly a missile test etc) must occur. This is because Kim must actually now *do* something after all of these threats, otherwise he will not have cemented his leadership at home.

    Ergo, we can definitely expect something to happen, but we just don't know what for certain yet. However, another concern, of course, is what the response will be from the US and her allies. This is the most serious concern (that is, if NK does conduct a test and a test alone and not actually attack) - it is the most serious because all hell could potentially break loose if the missile (presumably a test missile) is shot down, possibly by Japan if the trajectory shows that it will fly over Japan.

    If such occurs, then only goodness knows what will happen then.

    In short, Kim must do something, otherwise he's most probably *out* - and domestic faith in him will greatly wane.
    I don't buy that Kim Jong-un is in any need to cement his leadership. In fact, I don't think any of the analyst's theories completely explain North Korea's actions.
    Offline

    12
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Unkempt_One)
    I don't buy that Kim Jong-un is in any need to cement his leadership. In fact, I don't think any of the analyst's theories completely explain North Korea's actions.
    What do you suggest then? You believe that this is the real deal and not just threats anymore? :holmes:
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Cannotbelieveit)
    If anything's going to happen, it will happen on the 15th. North Korea's Day of the Sun.
    Let's see of ot dpes
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by HumanSupremacist)
    What do you suggest then? You believe that this is the real deal and not just threats anymore? :holmes:
    The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Unkempt_One)
    The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.
    Plus what limited intelligence there is (if there is any) can't be shared without jeopardising its source.

    We saw in the Syria endless reports on how the regime was about to fall. Obviously propaganda aimed into Syria its self. The contradictory reports maybe a deliberate attempt to misdirect parties involved in a situation of which we're not aware.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Unkempt_One)
    The thing is, the country is so secretive that you are always going on incomplete information. A few commentaries I've read seem to take it as a given that regime preservation is one of the fundamental goals. That makes sense, but it gets me thinking what the purpose of the North Korean regime's existence is, and I think you need to strip the country bare to answer that. All it seems you can really say is that they appear to be trying to force the US and South Korea into one-sided negotiations, but given the severity of the threats, what could they be hoping to extract this time around? I definitely don't think this is the real deal at any rate. They have absolutely nothing to gain from open warfare and everything to lose.
    This is all assuming that those in power in NK are acting logically.
 
 
 
Reply
Submit reply
TSR Support Team

We have a brilliant team of more than 60 Support Team members looking after discussions on The Student Room, helping to make it a fun, safe and useful place to hang out.

Updated: April 16, 2013
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Would you rather give up salt or pepper?
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Write a reply...
    Reply
    Hide
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.