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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Anecdotally it seems that there are a lot more leave voters but polls have remain ahead.

    Either leave voters are a lot louder or the polls have it horribly wrong again.
    The polls seem to be using underlying data as well as self reported data. Because according to yougov if they had looked at underlying data (things like issues that were important) it would have been easier to see the Tory win. So I'd like to think it's the loud minority which the victim complex and angry.
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    It has rained heavily in London today. I hope it has not pit anyone off voting.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Odds on another referendum in the next decade?

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    Unlikely either way imo. If we leave, no, if we stay I'd say there's a 20% chance of another referendum.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    The polls seem to be using underlying data as well as self reported data. Because according to yougov if they had looked at underlying data (things like issues that were important) it would have been easier to see the Tory win. So I'd like to think it's the loud minority which the victim complex and angry.
    I think the polls are going to be wrong by a bigger degree than the general election, which way I would not like to say, but with the general election voters base their decisions on lots of different policy areas that parties disagree on, for example, some voters voted the Conservatives because the economy was seen as more important than the social aspect, and some voters voted UKIP because immigration controls were seen as important. The EU referendum is a clear-cut question with defined answers, I do not believe there are many voters who are voting to remain because the free trade area is seen as more important than the immigration, or the ability for Parliament to make any law it wants being a stronger cause than the need to have a visa when working abroad: all of the points merge in the EU referendum to give on answer. I predict the polling organisation will find the more accurate prediction is the prediction that only considers a response a voter gave to the referendum question, underlying data will skew the results.
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    (Original post by Nigel Farage MEP)
    I think the polls are going to be wrong by a bigger degree than the general election, which way I would not like to say, but with the general election voters base their decisions on lots of different policy areas that parties disagree on, for example, some voters voted the Conservatives because the economy was seen as more important than the social aspect, and some voters voted UKIP because immigration controls were seen as important. The EU referendum is a clear-cut question with defined answers, I do not believe there are many voters who are voting to remain because the free trade area is seen as more important than the immigration, or the ability for Parliament to make any law it wants being a stronger cause than the need to have a visa when working abroad: all of the points merge in the EU referendum to give on answer. I predict the polling organisation will find the more accurate prediction is the prediction that only considers a response a voter gave to the referendum question, underlying data will skew the results.
    And some people voted Tory to keep the SNP out
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    (Original post by Nigel Farage MEP)
    I think the polls are going to be wrong by a bigger degree than the general election, which way I would not like to say, but with the general election voters base their decisions on lots of different policy areas that parties disagree on, for example, some voters voted the Conservatives because the economy was seen as more important than the social aspect, and some voters voted UKIP because immigration controls were seen as important. The EU referendum is a clear-cut question with defined answers, I do not believe there are many voters who are voting to remain because the free trade area is seen as more important than the immigration, or the ability for Parliament to make any law it wants being a stronger cause than the need to have a visa when working abroad: all of the points merge in the EU referendum to give on answer. I predict the polling organisation will find the more accurate prediction is the prediction that only considers a response a voter gave to the referendum question, underlying data will skew the results.
    I'd suggest underlying data would help with don't knows... And there will be some people who switch last minute... I'm not entirely sure what you mean when you say all the points merge into one but I would instead suggest that the people will look at all the points and vote based on their top issues.
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    (Original post by barnetlad)
    It has rained heavily in London today. I hope it has not pit anyone off voting.
    It wouldnt have put off leavers as much as it would have put off remainers seeing as leavers are voting for a change whereas remainers are voting for a status quo (not that there is a status quo)
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    My train station flooded meaning I couldn't get out to campaign, managed to vote however
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    (Original post by barnetlad)
    It has rained heavily in London today. I hope it has not pit anyone off voting.
    According to John Curtis bad weather doesn't have a significant effect on turnout unless it is disabling, and that bit was in the leave areas

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    According to John Curtis bad weather doesn't have a significant effect on turnout unless it is disabling, and that bit was in the leave areas

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    In london it looks like remain areas were less effected. East London was badly effected, all the way from Barking/Dagenham through to Newham, Leyton and Hackney which are all either 50-50 or leave oriented.

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    Just proudly voted Leave. Anyone else staying up for the results tonight/ tomorrow morning?
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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    In london it looks like remain areas were less effected. East London was badly effected, all the way from Barking/Dagenham through to Newham, Leyton and Hackney which are all either 50-50 or leave oriented.

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    And more significantly the South East and Essex. If onky it were 20 miles further west, would have been London itself being hit and Cambridge possibly

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    (Original post by toronto353)
    Just proudly voted Leave. Anyone else staying up for the results tonight/ tomorrow morning?
    I might set my alarm every few hours to have a quick check on how things stand.
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    (Original post by toronto353)
    Just proudly voted Leave. Anyone else staying up for the results tonight/ tomorrow morning?
    I'm going to try to go on as long as possible before getting a nap between breakfast and lunch

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    #VoteLeave
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    Would like a 60-70 remain win.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    Would like a 60-70 remain win.
    not gunna happen
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    Just been to vote...

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    (Original post by toronto353)
    Just proudly voted Leave. Anyone else staying up for the results tonight/ tomorrow morning?
    If it's a clear victory for either side we could know as early as three ish.

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    Not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but Press Association has a list of estimated declaration times here.

    JP Morgan has these 15 places as the key marginals. Large wins here might indicate the general momentum of either campaign.
 
 
 
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