Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

MH17 flight down in Ukraine Watch

Announcements
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Is everybody on this forum incapable of grasping the concept that we now fight wars on more than just the ground, because every single person to refute the argument has initially ruled out the possibility of an attack via the air to destroy the system.
    where did I rule out an air attack? I am simply saying that if the government are in a position of destroying any and every rebel target whenever they feel like it there wouldn't be much of a rebellion going on. And that is assuming they actually knew where the launcher was, which I see no particular reason why they would have. The assumption you are making that they got the launcher from a Ukranian base and therefore should have been able to track it is not one I have seen any official sources discuss, why must that be the case over them being given it by the Russians?


    It's not necessarily a case of letting it survive as much as doing insufficient to remove the issue, and what exactly has the Ukrainian "government" done? They have superior manpower and hardware yet seem incapable of getting very far, almost as if they're intentionally not doing a great deal, but that's another matter and I suppose it could also be said of Syria.
    I asked why you think the government is doing it, don't dodge the question. If they are purposely allowing the separatists to hold on to the launcher, or even to generally do better than they should be, why?
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DaveSmith99)
    I'm not trolling, it's just that your argument doesn't make any sense.

    How exactly do you think the U.S. are assisting Ukraine, Satellite surveillance as you mentioned earlier? Even the U.S. don't have the equipment to put blanket satellite surveillance over Ukraine at the resolution required, the chances of this base being randomly monitored by chance is so slim it's not even worth considering.

    And what's this nonsense about observing an event you keep going on about? To track something then yes you either need to observe it directly or indirectly.

    So how exactly were the Ukrainians meant to find the missile system, even assuming assistance from the U.S.? This is something that is absolutely critical to your argument yet you cannot answer this simple question.
    Perhaps I can't answer the intricacies of the argument because I'm not a specialist on how one would do it? Can you tell me exactly the process by which YouTube works out how many views a video has after it gets 300 views? No, then it must be impossible to know how it's done.


    Once again, you have failed to give any answers to questions that are vital to your argument.
    See above.




    Well you still haven't told me how they are finding the system so we have no idea how accurately they would be able to pin point its location. You're trying to make it sound like the government could just load up google maps and pin point its location but decided not to.
    If you have access to images from military surveillance satellites and the necessary expertise one should be able to get a better idea where to look. Refine the search with further aerial photography, whether it be from Space of atmosphere to further refine search area. When you have sufficient certainty launch the attack, should be plenty of options, mostly GGMs and AGMs.



    I'm now convinced you're a troll.
    Why, because you failed to specify legality in your post? You said it would be impossible to do, I stated a solution, not a legal solution but a solution none the less.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    That hardly explains how something not happening makes it impossible, again, are you saying that it was impossible for Germany to have captured Moscow simply because in our version of history they failed? In essence, you're arguing that as soon as there is an outcome, that was the only possible outcome, which is obviously false.


    Are you one of these people to which the "government" in Ukraine is infallible, and everything is the fault of the Russians/separatists?


    I would not place the level of blame for the government at 0, they may have tried, but it is always possible to do more.
    There is only ever one possible outcome...it is impossible to have two outcomes...that involves parallel universes which is not up for debate in this thread. That is why I have been calling you Captain Hindsight...you come on spouting your shoulda, woulda and coulda but in reality it makes no ****ing difference. Even if more could have been done to take the Buks (which is debatable) from the rebels who stole them (debatable) from the Ukrainians it doesn't matter...because we live in the present, terrorists shot down a civilian aircraft because they were incompetent and unable to tell the ****ing difference between a passenger plane and a military one.

    Given you are the most senior Capt. Hindsight in this thread, tell me...

    is it the fault of the Russian government because they supported the rebels?

    I mean because when you think about it...

    The rebels were able to last this long because of Russian support, without it, the war would likely have been nearly, if not already finished and the rebels couldn't have shot the plane down...

    So when you think about it like that, had the USSR not broken up, there wouldn't have ever been a civil war...

    which means that if WW2 never happened, no eastern bloc right?

    wow...I think you might be on to something here Captain!


    Good day to you sir
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    In this thread:

    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Et Tu, Brute?)
    There is only ever one possible outcome...it is impossible to have two outcomes...that involves parallel universes which is not up for debate in this thread. That is why I have been calling you Captain Hindsight...you come on spouting your shoulda, woulda and coulda but in reality it makes no ****ing difference. Even if more could have been done to take the Buks (which is debatable) from the rebels who stole them (debatable) from the Ukrainians it doesn't matter...because we live in the present, terrorists shot down a civilian aircraft because they were incompetent and unable to tell the ****ing difference between a passenger plane and a military one.

    Given you are the most senior Capt. Hindsight in this thread, tell me...

    is it the fault of the Russian government because they supported the rebels?

    I mean because when you think about it...

    The rebels were able to last this long because of Russian support, without it, the war would likely have been nearly, if not already finished and the rebels couldn't have shot the plane down...

    So when you think about it like that, had the USSR not broken up, there wouldn't have ever been a civil war...

    which means that if WW2 never happened, no eastern bloc right?

    wow...I think you might be on to something here Captain!


    Good day to you sir
    Flip a coin, what is the chances of it landing heads? Well, clearly it's 1 if it lands heads, or is it 0 because it could actually have landed heads. Congratulations, 1=0.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Flip a coin, what is the chances of it landing heads? Well, clearly it's 1 if it lands heads, or is it 0 because it could actually have landed heads. Congratulations, 1=0.

    War is not a game of probability my friend, nor is life.

    There are two types of people in this world.

    Those who flip the coin and get heads and get on with it. Then there are those who flip the coin, get heads and say, "well if I had flipped with an extra x amount of joules, I would have gotten tails."

    Also, the probability of getting heads is actually 0.5

    not 1 or 0
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Et Tu, Brute?)
    War is not a game of probability my friend, nor is life.

    There are two types of people in this world.

    Those who flip the coin and get heads and get on with it. Then there are those who flip the coin, get heads and say, "well if I had flipped with an extra x amount of joules, I would have gotten tails."

    Also, the probability of getting heads is actually 0.5

    not 1 or 0
    But at then it's also 0 and 1. So now 0=0.5=1? Does it also =42?
    And life is, almost by definition, a game of probability. Life is dictated by physics relying on random occurrences, if the odds are against you for long enough, you die.
    Offline

    12
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Perhaps I can't answer the intricacies of the argument because I'm not a specialist on how one would do it? Can you tell me exactly the process by which YouTube works out how many views a video has after it gets 300 views? No, then it must be impossible to know how it's done.
    So, your argument hinges on the crucial idea that Ukraine had the capabilities to both find and destroy the missile launcher yet you cannot give even the vaguest idea as to how this would be possible. Therefore you don't have even the beginnings of an argument. We might as well just run with the idea that it was Putin's fault as Putin was on the phone to the guy who fired it at the time.


    If you have access to images from military surveillance satellites and the necessary expertise one should be able to get a better idea where to look. Refine the search with further aerial photography, whether it be from Space of atmosphere to further refine search area. When you have sufficient certainty launch the attack, should be plenty of options, mostly GGMs and AGMs.
    Even if we just assume that the U.S. would be willing to reposition a few of its billion dollar recognisance satellites and scour half of Ukraine, if it's kept undercover then the exercise is entirely pointless.



    Why, because you failed to specify legality in your post? You said it would be impossible to do, I stated a solution, not a legal solution but a solution none the less.
    Because you suggested carpet bombing half of Ukraine as a solution.
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    RIP Malasian airlines. First a plane disapeared and now a plane has been blown up.
    I feel sorry 4 the people that died.

    Lol at the rebels allowing news reporters in but not people who are gong to examinine the area.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But at then it's also 0 and 1. So now 0=0.5=1? Does it also =42?
    And life is, almost by definition, a game of probability. Life is dictated by physics relying on random occurrences, if the odds are against you for long enough, you die.

    tell you what, why don't you run along an calculate all the possible outcomes that the whole MH17 crisis could have had, then work out the probabilities for each outcome and when you get back to me (or whoever reading this who is still living) at some point towards the end of this century they will tell you you have wasted your life and are nothing short of an idiot despite having incredible mathematical skills.

    Life is so complex that from a scientific point of view it is nothing but a bunch of chemical reactions and equations, probability yes. However, as demonstrated above, it is rarely seen that way outside of a scientific context not just because of the complexity of it, but because it would likely result in depression.

    Hence, when a plane is shot down, people will try and find the people who pulled the trigger in order to get answers.

    What they don't do is ask the opposition military/government 'why didn't you wipe them out before they shot it down', before sitting down and calculating the probability of the infinite amount of outcomes that could have happened...how knows though. Maybe it would be worth hundreds of years of research for them to turn around and say "well they should have done this and then that...but the probability of that happening was 0.00000000054353452354523...and it was dependent on this happening which has a probability of... etc etc etc

    Which, and no disrespect to you Captain, I don't think bringing out the shoulda, woulda and coulda is a good idea, thus it really isn't the fault of the Ukrainians at all...unless it turns out it was them who fired it...in which case I guess you would blame...the...Russians...the rebels? :confused::confused::confused::confused:
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    There appear to be sattelite images showing a plume of smoke consistent with a surface to air missile.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DanB1991)
    People say that but there's roughly Three levels of the decision.

    The Aviation body of the airspace involved can decide, in this case I think it is Eurocontrol.

    The Government of the nation that the airspace covers can declare a no fly zone. Also their own independent aviation bodies can also do this.

    Then Finally the airline can decide.... problem is the airline will decide on information given to them by the above levels. If all of the above say it's safe to fly they will, of course they can decide against it, but they will not undergo in-depth checks on the safety of the airspace themselves. For starters who would share possibly confidential information with airlines that could be state owned by your opponents?

    Eurocontrol blame Ukraine, Pro-Russians blame the airline.

    I find it quite shocking really concerning the BBC's coverage how aviation experts said Malaysian Airlines would of relied on information given to them by these other organisations to base their decision and the BBC presenters then go "so it's Malaysian airline's fault".... only for the experts to say, they have the final call but they do not collect the information themselves and go on advise from these organisations. The presenter then went "so, yes it's the airlines responsibility?" :facepalm:

    Stupid long drawn out statement really.

    The BBC is right ........ :grin:
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Et Tu, Brute?)
    War is not a game of probability my friend, nor is life.
    Yes it is. I was born in the UK not the Ukraine. Chance is incredibly important. If it rains when I attack and I hadn't anticipated it because it rarely rains, well that's chance in war. If a plane is shot down and happens to be a commercial airline instead of a military aircraft, well guess what that's chance.
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by toonervoustotalk)
    RIP Malasian airlines. First a plane disapeared and now a plane has been blown up.
    I feel sorry 4 the people that died.

    Lol at the rebels allowing news reporters in but not people who are gong to examinine the area.


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Actually they are, they're just waiting for an official body to get there. Remember these people aren't sophisticated experts concerning evidence, maybe they think the West will plant something.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DErasmus)
    Actually they are, they're just waiting for an official body to get there. Remember these people aren't sophisticated experts concerning evidence, maybe they think the West will plant something.
    Like who?
    Offline

    0
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Like who?
    Maybe the Ukrainians who want to use public outrage as a pretext for war so they can seize the Crimea back?
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DErasmus)
    Maybe the Ukrainians who want to use public outrage as a pretext for war so they can seize the Crimea back?
    Ok. I meant who are the official body.

    Ukraine does not have the military capacity to take back Crimea because they would have to fight the Russians.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    Igor Girkin, the rebel commander, is putting forth a claim that MH17 was carrying a bunch of dead bodies.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...dead-days.html
    Offline

    15
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Zenomorph)
    Stupid long drawn out statement really.

    The BBC is right ........ :grin:
    Really?

    If your were told it's safe to drive though an area, by the government and all these other independent agencies, and you then got shot who would you blame? You made the decision to drive through that route at the end of the day.

    It's a similar thing with the airline, everyone is saying "it's stupid flying over a warzone", it's common practise and the airline has no ability to access classified military information so will rely on its own government, the government who airspace they're flying over and the local aviation saftey organisation (in this case Eurocontrol) to tell them if it's safe or not.

    In this case they all told them it was safe when it was not. MA really aren't at fault, more Eurocontrol and the Ukrainian government for keeping the airspace open.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DanB1991)
    Really?

    If your were told it's safe to drive though an area, by the government and all these other independent agencies, and you then got shot who would you blame? You made the decision to drive through that route at the end of the day.

    It's a similar thing with the airline, everyone is saying "it's stupid flying over a warzone", it's common practise and the airline has no ability to access classified military information so will rely on its own government, the government who airspace they're flying over and the local aviation saftey organisation (in this case Eurocontrol) to tell them if it's safe or not.

    In this case they all told them it was safe when it was not. MA really aren't at fault, more Eurocontrol and the Ukrainian government for keeping the airspace open.
    But as I explained, assuming they didn't know the separatists had such advanced AA capabilities, they assumptions were reasonable. To put it into one line: They didn't expect ANY AA missiles at that altitude, therefore it is safe. I would assume Eurocontrol were unaware, it was just a tragic accident that was near impossible to forseee.
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Will you be richer or poorer than your parents?
    Useful resources
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Quick reply
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.