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The Commons Bar Mk VIII - MHoC Chat Thread watch

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    (Original post by Green_Pink)
    I'm planning to stay up for it, but I'm worried that they won't get a result till Friday afternoon or something - especially if it's close with all the rural/island voting areas.
    We should have full results by about 7am, apparently. I know the northern isles are set to have declared by around 3.30am.
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    I think I'll probably stay up until 1amish (working at 8:30)
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    Exit polls are very accurate these days. I plan to watch until about midnight.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Exit polls are very accurate these days. I plan to watch until about midnight.
    The head of ICM disagrees with you.
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    (Original post by Blue Meltwater)
    We should have full results by about 7am, apparently. I know the northern isles are set to have declared by around 3.30am.
    Somehow I don't share their optimism in that Especially if it's close and recounts are demanded etc.
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    Meanwhile, the Huffington Post are reporting that if we see a Yes vote, Labour Party Conference will be cancelled with the exceptions of Ed's speech, in anticipation of a Parliamentary re-call on Monday and a possible Vote of No Confidence in Cameron's Government coming from his own backbenchers.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Exit polls are very accurate these days. I plan to watch until about midnight.
    You may need a Plan B, apparently there is no exit poll.
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    ironically a Tory in fight bringing down Cameron would probably be just what Labour need to get a big enough election win to not need their Scottish MP's
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    Currently debating whether to stay up all night on Thursday, I have nothing on on Friday but even still it could Blitzkrieg my weekend I think I might go to sleep earlier in the evening and wake up about 12 or 1.
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    (Original post by Mechie)
    Currently debating whether to stay up all night on Thursday, I have nothing on on Friday but even still it could Blitzkrieg my weekend I think I might go to sleep earlier in the evening and wake up about 12 or 1.
    my sleep has gone nocturnal atm so I will be watching it, that & no doubt my twitter feed will be cramped full of it as well so my faithful followers will expect me to be commenting too (I have over 600 now lol, lots of Lefties on twitter it seems )
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    [QUOTE=Ruitker;50421365]The head of ICM disagrees with you.[/

    Not at all, he's talking about polls attempting to predict the result beforehand. Exit polls are as they say on the tin, polls outside the ballot box and remarkably accurate.

    According to the article from Green Pink though, there is none planned.
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    (Original post by Mechie)
    Currently debating whether to stay up all night on Thursday, I have nothing on on Friday but even still it could Blitzkrieg my weekend I think I might go to sleep earlier in the evening and wake up about 12 or 1.
    I am staying up to watch it. I've been talking about nothing else, even to my daughter (who is only 2 months).
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    A tough one. I agree that he should go if Scotland does but at the same time its collective suicide from the Tories. With that being said, some of these people would rather be an ideologically pure opposition than an umpire government.

    I just hope Hague would cancel his intention to stand down.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I am staying up to watch it. I've been talking about nothing else, even to my daughter.
    I know, same here, it's all I can think about. I want to stay up from 10 until finish, but I think that might be a bit beyond me so I might have a wee rest beforehand
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    (Original post by Mechie)
    I know, same here, it's all I can think about. I want to stay up from 10 until finish, but I think that might be a bit beyond me so I might have a wee rest beforehand
    What's your gut feeling? I think it will be 'No' but it will be very close.
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    My expedition has been moved back to Friday morning. So on Thursday I will get home, sleep immediately and set my alarm for 2-3 and watch the result as they declare.


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    (Original post by meenu89)
    What's your gut feeling? I think it will be 'No' but it will be very close.
    I hate doing predictions, I'm just going to get it cast upon me in 2 days time if I'm wrong But I think it will be a Yes. The polls have showed a clear shift of momentum to Yes, but I feel this is only part of the story. The polls are only polling people who are likely to be interested in politics and already vote - there's vast swathes of people who have registered (97% of the electorate!) to vote, and I don't think that most of the people who are currently apathetic to the political process will vote no to keep the system they're apathetic to. The polls are also often done by landline telephone or online, and a lot of people from poorer areas don't have landlines, and aren't going to be signed up to bloody YouGov or similar
    I've also heard it said that the polls are based on a 65% turnout (don't know how true this is), but we're looking at an 80%+ turnout, and if that is the case then the polls calculations won't particularly mean all that much. To use the cliché, the only poll that counts is the one on Thursday.
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    I do think the 20-30% who did not vote at the last elections will be interesting and I've heard numerous theories along the lines of..

    These people are disproportionately ex Tory (not proven but its a theory I heard) who abandoned them after Thatcher. These people may hate Salmonds vision and vote no.

    These people genuinely don't care or just don't vote because of the seats they are in. They may keep the status quo.

    These people feel abandoned by politics and may vote Yes to escape the system that has disenfranchised them.

    ..

    Who knows. Perception is also complicated because Old No voters are not going be marching around in the thousands. Young no voters may not admit it if there friends are voting yes. Or the yes movement could genuinely be active because people are more enthusiastic.

    ...

    Mechie is right though. Polls are most likely calibrated to the turnout in 2010 which was about 60%.
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    If I had to make a prediction, I'd go for a surprisingly convincing Yes vote - somewhere around 60-40. I think the polls may well have got it horribly wrong with all the uncertainty at play, but it is of course very hard to predict.
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    (Original post by Green_Pink)
    If I had to make a prediction, I'd go for a surprisingly convincing Yes vote - somewhere around 60-40. I think the polls may well have got it horribly wrong with all the uncertainty at play, but it is of course very hard to predict.
    I know Scots like their social justice but I just don't think they are radical enough to vote in such numbers. It will either be a tiny Yes or a large No.

    I think 46-54 for the union.
 
 
 
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