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    (Original post by Aph)
    Remain hit the million!!!
    You also lost Swansea...
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    Senior labour source says we're leaving

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    Bookies have both sides 10/11

    Update leave in the lead.
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    A senior figure in Labour has said that Leave looks like it'll win. If you're watching the beeb then you already know this.
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    (Original post by joecphillips)
    Bookies have both sides 10/11
    What's salmond going to use now?

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    You also lost Swansea...
    Never liked Swansea. It's an awful place and rather mean.
    174,002 leave lead
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    Southampton, my home city, is looking like 60% leave, 40% remain. Honestly didn't expect this at all.
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    Lol, another washed up hazbin

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    2.5m total broken

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    Where's Fez, this is fricking great!!!
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    I'm shocked. Never expected Wales to be staunchly leave, as they are so far, and never thought that Scotland remain would be so low.
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    (Original post by nebelbon)
    I'm shocked. Never expected Wales to be staunchly leave, as they are so far, and never thought that Scotland remain would be so low.
    Northern Ireland is less remain than expected

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    Nearly time for land of hope and glory methinks

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    negotiations are basically the science of what you want, what your enemy wants, the leverage both sides have to achieve their aims, and the knowledge both sides have of what the limit of the will accept in terms of concessions.

    Both sides will have an ideal suggestion, and then have space to retreat into.

    UK will want a better trade deal than it has currently. The EU will start off with some form of trade deal which tethers us to their markets, but taxes our trade to them highly.

    Both positions are untenable so they will be retreat.

    If we take the assumption that the EU cannot afford Britain to be better out than in, then the space they will allow Britain to move into cannot be better than what we have. This is a no brainer because the destruction of the EU is worse for the EU than loss of British trade.

    So UK retreats and negotiates the best deal they can. But their ability to negotiate is limited by the rule that the EU cannot act rationally and allow Britain to be better off.

    The UK has no answer to this.

    Uk's ability to enact its preferred option: Soft power of trade.

    But the EU has the hard power of making the final decision. And they cannot move beyond the rule discussed above.


    So it follows that the space the UK has to move into is capped at what we have already, and it is uncertain that we will get that best possible scenario.

    The upshot of this is: we're risking everything for the best possible scenario of what we had before.
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    Is it not too early to call? only 13% declared.
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    Prof Michael Thrasher preliminary forecast as things stand for @skynews:

    Leave 56%
    Remain 44%

    Oxford, #EUref result:
    Remain: 70.3% (49,424)
    Leave: 29.7% (20,913)

    As expected

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    Still waiting for the results of Birmingham, Manchester or London before giving either side a strong chance of winning.

    The FT makes an interesting point that whatever happens, this looks like a success for the pollsters whereas the betting and currency markets have overshot significantly, which marks a reversal of what happened in the GE.
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    Getting close now, Leave only just ahead of remain.
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    Ohhhhhh remain is pulling back.
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    66% leave on Ladbrokes atm

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