The Manchester United Thread XIX Watch

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Lúcio
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#6641
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#6641
(Original post by sr90)
I'd rather have points on the board than games in hand, we'll lose tomorrow anyway. Kompany and Otamendi being out doesn't mean much, City could play Liam & Noel Gallagher at CB and we still wouldn't manage a shot on target
Calm down with the obvious statements Michael Owen

You could laugh and say Stoke are ahead of Liverpool in the table, but when you see we have 3 games in hand, it looks a little silly.
Who knows, we might lose all 3 but it's unlikely.

As for the game tomorrow, I don't fancy City against you lot to be honest.
After going out of the EL and looking likely to lose to West Ham in the FA Cup, getting a EL/top 4 place is essential, making this a huge game.
LVG has a good record against top teams this season and City have been awful in said games, so who knows?

If United win, that opens up a race for top 4.
If City win, that gives us a boost for beating you to a EL place.
If you draw, both of the above.

Provided we win tomorrow, this could be a nice week for us.
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6642
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How has the notion of expected value not filtered through to football fans yet...

If we have 20% chance of beating City and 30% chance of drawing, our expected value in terms of points is 0.2*3 + 0.3*1 = 0.9, so one point ahead of us with a game in hand would be an advantage. If on the other hand, we altered those numbers to 30% and 40%, our expected value is 0.3*3 + 0.4*1 = 1.3, which would lead to the opposite conclusion.
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Lúcio
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#6643
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#6643
^wot
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6644
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#6644
(Original post by Lúcio)
^wot
football is a game

therefore, football is reducible to numbers and any attempt at pure qualitative analysis is rather missing the point
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Lúcio
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#6645
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#6645
(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
football is a game

therefore, football is reducible to numbers and any attempt at pure qualitative analysis is rather missing the point
if you think you can reduce football simply to numbers and algorithms, you aren't a real supporter of the game
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Rk2k14
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#6646
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#6646
Numbers mean nothing.
Whoever turns up on the day will win.
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6647
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#6647
(Original post by Lúcio)
if you think you can reduce football simply to numbers and algorithms, you aren't a real supporter of the game
Oh I watch football because I think it's fun, and no, I'm not a real supporter of the game, I don't see the point in supporting a local team etc etc

my point is that most results boil down to expectation with some measure of variance, it's quite possible for a manager to be unlucky for multiple seasons in a row (thus I'm sceptical about the skills involved in football management). basically anything to do with results (including player/team performance stats) we can deal with more effectively with maths than asking some trumped-up 'expert' like any ex-footballer ever for their opinion

the match of the day analysis would be worth watching if it was done by statisticians and game theorists
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sr90
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#6648
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#6648
(Original post by Lúcio)
LVG has a good record against top teams this season
We just played our main rivals at home needing to score 3 goals, created **** all in open play and made 3 defensive substitutions

If you take out the FA Cup games against lower league sides we've won something like 2 of our last 15 away games
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SirAlexFerguson
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#6649
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#6649
(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
How has the notion of expected value not filtered through to football fans yet...

If we have 20% chance of beating City and 30% chance of drawing, our expected value in terms of points is 0.2*3 + 0.3*1 = 0.9, so one point ahead of us with a game in hand would be an advantage. If on the other hand, we altered those numbers to 30% and 40%, our expected value is 0.3*3 + 0.4*1 = 1.3, which would lead to the opposite conclusion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgCzKQJyWdk

You remind me of this advertisement - wait till the "the professor" part
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jam277
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#6650
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#6650
(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
Oh I watch football because I think it's fun, and no, I'm not a real supporter of the game, I don't see the point in supporting a local team etc etc

my point is that most results boil down to expectation with some measure of variance, it's quite possible for a manager to be unlucky for multiple seasons in a row (thus I'm sceptical about the skills involved in football management). basically anything to do with results (including player/team performance stats) we can deal with more effectively with maths than asking some trumped-up 'expert' like any ex-footballer ever for their opinion

the match of the day analysis would be worth watching if it was done by statisticians and game theorists
Well yeah there is place for statisticians in football but the kind of mathematics you are using to back your point is utterly ridiculous. I don't think I need to go into why expected value is ridiculous but I will do anyway.

Firstly if United have a 30% chance of winning and a 40% chance of drawing, City will therefore have the exact same expected value as you lot, therefore not the 'opposite conclusion'

Lets not get into the fact that you are plucking probabilities from thin air and as these are singular events where the probability is ever changing due to the dynamic situation of a football match and almost unquantifiable, such a thing is impossible to put into numbers. Have you factored the chance of a dodgy ref, the chance of a red card(which depending on the teams approach, whether they are playing home and away which has a fairly obvious affect on a refereeing performance)

It is possible to qualitatively see a teams chances of a performance, by seeing their previous results, their style of play, the strength of their players, their fitness etc which again you cannot quantify.
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6651
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(Original post by jam277)
Well yeah there is place for statisticians in football but the kind of mathematics you are using to back your point is utterly ridiculous. I don't think I need to go into why expected value is ridiculous.

Firstly if United have a 30% chance of winning and a 40% chance of drawing, City will therefore have the exact same expected value as you lot, therefore not the 'opposite conclusion'
obviously I'm using very basic maths to illustrate a point, I don't exactly expect everyone ITT to be comfortable with Bayesian concepts or whatever (which would also be applicable to football for obvious reasons)

It is the 'opposite conclusion' as to whether being a point ahead with a game in hand is a preferable situation or not
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6652
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(Original post by jam277)
Lets not get into the fact that you are plucking probabilities from thin air and as these are singular events where the probability is ever changing due to the dynamic situation of a football match and almost unquantifiable, such a thing is impossible to put into numbers. Have you factored the chance of a dodgy ref, the chance of a red card(which depending on the teams approach, whether they are playing home and away which has a fairly obvious affect on a refereeing performance)

It is possible to qualitatively see a teams chances of a performance, by seeing their previous results, their style of play, the strength of their players, their fitness etc which again you cannot quantify.
of course I'm plucking probabilities from thin air, I don't expect it to be perfectly quantifiable, but we can probably, with access to the correct data, isolate what's relevant and get a pretty good guess... and of course it's dynamic, but I'm talking about taking a snapshot at a single point on an ex ante basis... we can factor in dodgy refs etc with access to enough data

'qualitatively' -> goes on to mention a bunch of quantitative factors... or at least all of which can be meaningfully proxied through other quantitative factors

also, I'm not denying that one can qualitatively get some impression, or use qualitative factors to gauge quant variables which we either don't know or can't effectively take into account for some other reason, but i do believe that it holds that attempting to gain any useful insight on a purely qualitative basis is completely absurd
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jam277
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#6653
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(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
obviously I'm using very basic maths to illustrate a point, I don't exactly expect everyone ITT to be comfortable with Bayesian concepts or whatever (which would also be applicable to football for obvious reasons)

It is the 'opposite conclusion' as to whether being a point ahead with a game in hand is a preferable situation or not
Ok then use proper maths because you have not illustrated anything with that maths because you have plucked those probabilities from thin air.

It is not the opposite conclusion because firstly United do not have a game in hand over City(who they are challenging for 4th) and they are facing them tomorrow therefore are using up their game in hand(over City their challengers for the top 4)
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6654
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(Original post by jam277)
Ok then use proper maths because you have not illustrated anything with that maths because you have plucked those probabilities from thin air.

It is not the opposite conclusion because firstly United do not have a game in hand over City(who they are challenging for 4th) and they are facing them tomorrow therefore are using up their game in hand(over City their challengers for the top 4)
i'm talking hypothetically, i don't even know who's where in the table atm (except I know Leicester are top) so I definitely don't know the actual stats, I just like it when united win, and I think there's more interesting/useful ways to talk about things than 'oooh they've been playing poorly lately' (I haven't seen any actual analyses of the relevance of form as a predictor of future performance, which is definitely something we can isolate)

abstract argument is far more interesting than the *******s football people normally talk, who really gives a **** who manages a team next year
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6655
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#6655
(Original post by SirAlexFerguson)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgCzKQJyWdk

You remind me of this advertisement - wait till the "the professor" part
haha, tbf I think people who know their stats (as in the maths) are the only people who can realistically gain an edge over bookies, but realistically the types of people in this advert are all the types of thickos who Ladbrokes will be greedily rubbing their hands at (especially mr gut feeling who's probably down tens of thousands on sport betting lifetime)
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Mo De Lemone
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#6656
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#6656
Diego Torres reporting for El Pais that United and Mou have signed a pre-agreement for Jose to become our next manager; http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/...rno_rsoc=TW_CM
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jam277
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#6657
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(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
of course I'm plucking probabilities from thin air, I don't expect it to be perfectly quantifiable, but we can probably, with access to the correct data, isolate what's relevant and get a pretty good guess... and of course it's dynamic, but I'm talking about taking a snapshot at a single point on an ex ante basis... we can factor in dodgy refs etc with access to enough data
But how can you take a snapshot of something that is dynamic and subject to change to such a large degree over 90mins?


'qualitatively' -> goes on to mention a bunch of quantitative factors... or at least all of which can be meaningfully proxied through other quantitative factors

also, I'm not denying that one can qualitatively get some impression, or use qualitative factors to gauge quant variables which we either don't know or can't effectively take into account for some other reason, but i do believe that it holds that attempting to gain any useful insight on a purely qualitative basis is completely absurd
How do you determine a teams chances of a red card in a specific game, especially since some players are going to be more prone to a red card than others and you also have to determine the team selection used(because certain players are more likely to get a red than other players), how sway?

The type of data you require to do such a quantitative analysis is so extensive that there is no point doing it, because it is ridiculously subject to change.

Honestly bro leave it.
(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
i'm talking hypothetically, i don't even know who's where in the table atm (except I know Leicester are top) so I definitely don't know the actual stats,
Then don't use something like a 'game in hand' as facts to back up your point when it's clear that a draw is a very unfavourable result for United even if the expected value you then used is gearing United for a draw.
I just like it when united win, and I think there's more interesting/useful ways to talk about things than 'oooh they've been playing poorly lately' (I haven't seen any actual analyses of the relevance of form as a predictor of future performance, which is definitely something we can isolate)
Well so do I. But individual factors means that it is very hard to quantify this stuff accurately.Betting companies e.g. utilise the actual gamblers flow of money to formulate their opinion on odds e.g. and while some more meaningful statistics would be useful, it is very hard to have an accurate conclusion on a teams chances of winning a game in the way you are saying.
abstract argument is far more interesting than the *******s football people normally talk, who really gives a **** who manages a team next year
Yeah so basically you don't watch football or really have a care for but makes an opinion on it and predicting it.I'm out.
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Dirtybit
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#6658
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#6658
There is really no scope for statisticians in football, I've done the research. There are way too many variables that may be effected. The guy obviously doesn't watch football.

Teams like Leicester who cruising the league right now are testament to this.
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Lúcio
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#6659
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#6659
(Original post by Dirtybit)
There is really no scope for statisticians in football, I've done the research.

Teams like Leicester who cruising the league right now are testament to this.
This.

That's exactly why we all love the game so much tbh.
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Rk2k14
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#6660
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#6660
Already refuted dis.
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