The Manchester United Thread XIX Watch

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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6661
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#6661
(Original post by jam277)
But how can you take a snapshot of something that is dynamic and subject to change to such a large degree over 90mins?
Because at any given point in time, that probability is static. P(team A win) is obviously much lower immediately before they score than immediately after, but at any point in time, it is static.

How do you determine a teams chances of a red card in a specific game, especially since some players are going to be more prone to a red card than others and you also have to determine the team selection used(because certain players are more likely to get a red than other players), how sway?
We can assess the probability of each player being selected in both teams, assess the probability that each player gets sent off based on their responses to the other team/referee and the referee's statistics, and sum from that. Naturally there are more factors involved in each part, I'm not denying it's very complex.

The type of data you require to do such a quantitative analysis is so extensive that there is no point doing it, because it is ridiculously subject to change.
I'm mostly talking about things which would require writing an algorithm, but nevertheless we can as humans draw some conclusions.

Then don't use something like a 'game in hand' as facts to back up your point when it's clear that a draw is a very unfavourable result for United even if the expected value you then used is gearing United for a draw.Well so do I. But individual factors means that it is very hard to quantify this stuff accurately.Betting companies e.g. utilise the actual gamblers flow of money to formulate their opinion on odds e.g. and while some more meaningful statistics would be useful, it is very hard to have an accurate conclusion on a teams chances of winning a game in the way you are saying.Yeah so basically you don't watch football or really have a care for but makes an opinion on it and predicting it.I'm out.
Opinions are fun. Saying 'did you see the game last night oh my god what was Jones doing' and everyone grunting in agreement is really, really dull. I don't care enough to inform myself to a greater extent about football, but it irks me when I see people who care about football completely ignore data.
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Dirtybit
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#6662
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#6662
(Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)

We can assess the probability of each player being selected in both teams, assess the probability that each player gets sent off based on their responses to the other team/referee and the referee's statistics, and sum from that. Naturally there are more factors involved in each part, I'm not denying it's very complex.
First of all you don't need to create algorithms for this lmao. Second of all the only use of getting the actual probabilities would be for betting and that's all.
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TheDefiniteArticle
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#6663
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#6663
(Original post by Dirtybit)
First of all you don't need to create algorithms for this lmao. Second of all the only use of getting the actual probabilities would be for betting and that's all.
Well, I mean, each of these will be more nuanced (you'll probably need to do some Bayesian stuff to get a truer figure for a lot of these stats, and there will be other factors I haven't mentioned). The point of getting the probabilities will be making accurate predictions, and prediction seems to be what goes on most of the time ITT.
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Diego Costa
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#6664
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(Original post by Mo De Lemone)
Diego Torres reporting for El Pais that United and Mou have signed a pre-agreement for Jose to become our next manager; http://deportes.elpais.com/deportes/...rno_rsoc=TW_CM
Does anyone care that another no name journalist has stated Mourinho is going to Man Utd?
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ozzyoscy
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#6665
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#6665
Despite everything that happened this week with Arsenal/Barcelona, Leicester and Spurs, the F.A. Cup, Phil McNulty has written yet another Man Utd article. What is wrong with the BBC? :facepalm:

I mean other than the paedophilia and questionable concept of forcing people to pay for their TVs even if they never watch the BBC, even if they're old and don't need to pay.
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KingKoala
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#6666
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#6666
Anybody else miss this guy on a day like today?:

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Kenan and Kel
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#6667
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#6667
Fletcher would always perform against City, such a clutch player
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swirly
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#6668
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#6668
suppose Mourinho is a done deal.

What are you guys expecting?

Typical Mourinho football, but winning titles?

Mourinho playing the United way, bringing through youth etc.?
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KingKoala
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#6669
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#6669
(Original post by swirly)
suppose Mourinho is a done deal.

What are you guys expecting?

Typical Mourinho football, but winning titles?

Mourinho playing the United way, bringing through youth etc.?
Would have preferred Blanc tbh honest but ah well we shall see what Mourinhio does. I expect him to play with two defensive mids, probably schneiderlin and somebody else, I also expect Felliaini to stay now because Mourinhio will probably try and fit him into his system. On the plus side however I think we will sign a world-class striker in the Summer because that position has always been key to Mourinhios success.
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swirly
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#6670
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#6670
(Original post by KingKoala)
Would have preferred Blanc tbh honest but ah well we shall see what Mourinhio does. I expect him to play with two defensive mids, probably schneiderlin and somebody else, I also expect Felliaini to stay now because Mourinhio will probably try and fit him into his system. On the plus side however I think we will sign a world-class striker in the Summer because that position has always been key to Mourinhios success.
today you've been linked with a £60m move for Kane.

Also, Mata would presumably be on his way out?
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Dirtybit
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#6671
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#6671
Mourinho will fit Fellaini into his system?

Next joke!
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KingKoala
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#6672
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#6672
(Original post by Dirtybit)
Mourinho will fit Fellaini into his system?

Next joke!
I said try.
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KingKoala
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#6673
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#6673
(Original post by swirly)
today you've been linked with a £60m move for Kane.

Also, Mata would presumably be on his way out?
See that worries me because I'm not sure Kane would be the one we need.
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swirly
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#6674
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#6674
(Original post by Dirtybit)

Next joke!
Rashford > Iwobi
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Dirtybit
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#6675
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#6675
(Original post by KingKoala)
I said try.
Based on what? We're gunna sell Fellaini this summer, there's no way we'll extend his contract plus we'd want to recoup back some cash.

Bottom line is Fellaini will never fit into a title challenging team, so Mourinho won't be using him.
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Dirtybit
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#6676
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#6676
(Original post by swirly)
Rashford > Iwobi
I said jokes not facts :rolleyes:

thoughts on Iwobi's freestyle in the car live on periscope?
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KingKoala
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#6677
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#6677
(Original post by Dirtybit)
Based on what? We're gunna sell Fellaini this summer, there's no way we'll extend his contract plus we'd want to recoup back some cash.

Bottom line is Fellaini will never fit into a title challenging team, so Mourinho won't be using him.
None of Uniteds current team would fit into a title winning team bar De gea (who will leave in the summer), Martial and maybe Rooney when he is fully fit.
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swirly
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#6678
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#6678
(Original post by Dirtybit)
I said jokes not facts :rolleyes:

thoughts on Iwobi's freestyle in the car live on periscope?
havent watched but he spits bars all the time :lol:
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Dirtybit
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#6679
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#6679
(Original post by KingKoala)
None of Uniteds current team would fit into a title winning team bar De gea (who will leave in the summer), Martial and maybe Rooney when he is fully fit.
Lol are you high? You sound really really high.

(Original post by swirly)
havent watched but he spits bars all the time :lol:
Frimpong 2.0
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KingKoala
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#6680
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#6680
(Original post by Dirtybit)
Lol are you high? You sound really really high.



Frimpong 2.0
Have you watched United play this season?
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