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1. Any of you guys happen to play instruments/guitar and know any good shops in London with good deals? Been trying to find a store to pick up a good amp from for around 100 quid
2. It's been a while since I have done this and can't remember doing much on this topic. I can't get the symbols on my phone fully but I give it a go.
From what I understand, given it has been a while since I have seen it.
You have a time series model which is measuring variables one period ahead. You have constants that may affect the model, yt.

Now Bt (interested object) = pi Bt-1 + (1-pi) Bbar + vt.
So the parameter Pi will be crucial as this will determine how the model behaves.
So let's say we set Pi to zero, we Bt = Bbar + vt, this means that the coefficients will be stationary, So stationary means that the statistical properties such as mean, variance are all constant over time. This also makes it easier to forecast using a B-j Methodology.
If we say pi is 1, we get Bt=Bt-1 +vt, so as to say that today value of Bt is equivalent to the last value of Bt, I.e.bt-1 plus a random term, vt and this model is called a random walk as it is difficult to accurately predict this model as we have no idea what today vt value will be.

(Original post by samba)
Man I'm a historian so that makes no sense I understand the following: M1 = moneys and yt is total output and that's about it! More reading to do I guess.
Yeah, I guess that is complicated, I'll try to simplify it but you may need to read it as the meaning is as stated in the document.

So the parameter(term) Pi is what will determine what the model will produce.
So now try Pi = 0 into Bt=Pi.Bt-1 + (1-Pi)Bbar + vt, you will see Pi.Bt-1 will cancel our as Pi=0, so this leaves Bt= Bbar + vt.
Now but Pi= 1 into Bt = Bt-1 + vt, you will see (1-Pi)Bbar will cancel as Pi = 1.
The economics side of things here is what they mean, which you will need to read to understand tbh.
The first model is stationary which generally looks like it varies along a line so one term may be above and the next may be below the line...
The second model is called a random walk as you are saying the current term (Bt) is equal to the previous term (Bt-1) plus a random variable/error (vt).

Try to see if you get the maths as that should be more straightforward whilst the second part explains the economic meanings behind the models.
3. Used to go to this place in Croydon for guitar and drumkit stuff , next to west Croydon station, but it got busted in the riots and i haven't been back since. They re-did the place up so you can check out.
4. (Original post by So Instinct)
Used to go to this place in Croydon for guitar and drumkit stuff , next to west Croydon station, but it got busted in the riots and i haven't been back since. They re-did the place up so you can check out.

A name would be helpful mate

edit : I think you're talking about Rockbottom Music, will check it out
5. (Original post by AR_95)
A name would be helpful mate

edit : I think you're talking about Rockbottom Music, will check it out
Yep its Rockbottom
6. (Original post by So Instinct)
Yep its Rockbottom
Have found a pretty good showroom in Clapham common 10mins away from me who've even agreed to knock down the price on the amp I wanted. Quite convenient eh
7. (Original post by jam277)
Na, still a pretty young guy. Feels weird being in my 20s though. 24 is a good age though. What's your plans in the future btw? Future manager of Atlético Mineiro or Porto? Or you gonna manage Benfica and intentionally get them relegated?
Ha, why does it feel weird? I’m trying to look at being 24 as more of a number than anything else. As long as I don’t begin to age badly, I’ll be fine. Considering I still get asked for ID for the Lottery tells me I don’t look my age but I don’t know whether I should be worried that they think I look under 16!!

I would never do that to Benfica, I’d miss them! I think we can say Jorge Jesus and Benfica fans are safe for now. I actually think I would make a terrible manager though. As for my actual future plans, I had saved up to use 2014 for travelling starting with the WC in Brazil and then make my way around South America until 2015 when I’d then come back and start my career. I actually applied for WC tickets too and between me and my friend we had tickets for three matches. As it turned out at the start of the year I received some devastating news which I won’t go into on here but I’ve had to put everything on hold. I guess not going meant I ended up doing that work for the FAW and now I’m doing that bit of work for Bangor City FC so I’ve managed to pick up a bit of experience in football and marketing which is the path I want to go down. Ideally on a more European / Worldwide scale though. Going to uni hasn't really benefited me in any way though, maybe in the future it will because it was a management degree but right now it just all seems a waste. Anymore ideas about what you want to do career-wise?
8. Does anybody know anything about MA applications? Eboracum is considering an application to: Durham, UCL, St Andrews, Birmingham. If anybody knows anything about MA International Relations (or similar programs), or knows anything about postgrad personal statements, or those universities/cities, that would be great advice or just general comments for Eboracum to listen to. Thank you
9. (Original post by AR_95)
Any of you guys happen to play instruments/guitar and know any good shops in London with good deals? Been trying to find a store to pick up a good amp from for around 100 quid
'Rock around the clock' in Edgware and in Crouch End and 'Ebony and Ivory' in Colindale.

This is me assuming you also live in London.
10. (Original post by Lyrical Prodigy)
'Rock around the clock' in Edgware and in Crouch End and 'Ebony and Ivory' in Colindale.

This is me assuming you also live in London.
Yeah but that's wayyyy up north for me I think. Basically you see the northern line yeah edgeware is on one end and I'm in the complete other (southern boy )

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11. (Original post by AR_95)
Yeah but that's wayyyy up north for me I think. Basically you see the northern line yeah edgeware is on one end and I'm in the complete other (southern boy )

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Oh like Modern and tooting bec and what not, lmao never been round those ends, complete alien to me! You could always do a quick google search init.

You play instruments?
12. (Original post by Lyrical Prodigy)
Oh like Modern and tooting bec and what not, lmao never been round those ends, complete alien to me! You could always do a quick google search init.

You play instruments?
Yeah very near tooting bec. Edgeware and that area is completely alien to me too haha. Found one actually 10mins away from me so that's sorted.

I use to play the guitar years ago but I stopped for some reason. Been wanting to learn/pick it up again but I've only got an electric so need an amp

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13. The thought of some Bengali (?) kid playing the guitar is amusing.

I killed Econometrics and I have no idea what you guys are talking about, how bad is that, I've already forgotten most of that stuff.
14. (Original post by Deshi)
The thought of some Bengali (?) kid playing the guitar is amusing.

I killed Econometrics and I have no idea what you guys are talking about, how bad is that, I've already forgotten most of that stuff.

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15. (Original post by AR_95)
Yeah very near tooting bec. Edgeware and that area is completely alien to me too haha. Found one actually 10mins away from me so that's sorted.

I use to play the guitar years ago but I stopped for some reason. Been wanting to learn/pick it up again but I've only got an electric so need an amp

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Ah that's cool, glad it's sorted! I've heard myths that South London is bare rough and everything, obviously there's nice areas but is it true? oh I see, I'm scared of guitar strings you know, I always feel like it's going to give me something similar to a paper cut

(Original post by Deshi)
The thought of some Bengali (?) kid playing the guitar is amusing.
Deshi why.
16. Anyone wanna recommend a good comedy film to a brudda? Feel like a cheap laugh tonight.

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17. (Original post by Lyrical Prodigy)
Ah that's cool, glad it's sorted! I've heard myths that South London is bare rough and everything, obviously there's nice areas but is it true? oh I see, I'm scared of guitar strings you know, I always feel like it's going to give me something similar to a paper cut

Deshi why.
There are one or two areas which use to be quite bad but a lot of it is just media hype tbh. I'm from a pretty decent area and a lot of South west London is quite nice.

The strings are meant to hurt at first apparently, takes a few weeks or so for your fingers to get used to them

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18. (Original post by LosingDogs)
Anyone wanna recommend a good comedy film to a brudda? Feel like a cheap laugh tonight.

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Dumb and dumber

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19. (Original post by AR_95)
Dumb and dumber

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I've seen it and if I'm honest, never saw the massive hype! I'm tempted to go and watch Back to the Future again (not comedy I know but nevertheless a timeless classic if you'll pardon the pun).

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20. Looks good. Also Slikhaar TV is pretty great for this stuff, hairdresser pretty fine too.

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