Double dip recession Watch

bkeevin
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#61
Report 7 years ago
#61
(Original post by thegaffer91)
In Japan, the vast majority of government bonds are purchased domestically. With such an ageing population in Japan, the demand is very very high, hence the low borrowing costs.

America is seen as the safest of havens because, even if they don't have enough money in the coffers to pay their debts, they can quite easily print more money to pay it all off. Yes, Britain can do the same, but you saw the outrage at the high levels of inflation we have had over the past couple of years (coming down now as most people in the know predicted), so doing something like that is seen as less of an option here compared to America. The reason the yields went up was because people saw the downgrade as an opportunity to buy - it *should* mean the price falls, meaning a better deal for investors, which obviously didn't happen.
Well we also have a rapidly ageing population. Our pension funds are looking to invest especially as interest have remained at historic lows.
Most analysts were saying high our inflation had more to do with the price of oil, higher demand from emerging markets and the dollar appreciating than with our own action. Us printing money had very little effect to inflation just like the american doom mongers were saying the dollar would collapse because of the debt and there would be hyper inflation. None of that happened but the investors seem hell bent on destroying the euro. I wonder why!!!:rolleyes:
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Llamageddon
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#62
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#62
(Original post by The_Great_One)
Their is no left leaning party in the UK because we dont vote for them look at the greens or the socialist party nobody votes for them.
Because those parties are ran by lunatics who pay no consideration to how you would actually implement policies nationwide.

Both the Labour and Conservative parties have always suffered from the unfortunate burden of actually having to implement their policies and being judged on results more than ideology.
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amyelizabeth2681
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#63
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#63
(Original post by The_Great_One)
How come every Tory government has made loads of cuts to the public sector and after every Tory government theirs always money in the bank and the economy is growing. The only reason it isn't now is because the lib dems are holding them back.
This doesn't even make sense. Did you read any of the theory in my last post? Budget deficits have been just as common place in Tory governments as any other. And how exactly are the lib dems holding back the Conservatives from creating growth? The Conservatives are eager enough to do as much cutting as it takes, and it's choking off the economy, with or without the lib dems. The bulk of the cuts have come directly from Tory led policies, with Nick Clegg going along because of his lack of backbone. I don't know if you woke up this morning, but we are now officially in the longest recession for the last 50 years with borrowing up, a direct result of unemployment caused by a lack in growth. It's a simple economic equation. You cut government spending, along with weak consumer confidence, leading to a reduction on consumer spending, overall leading to a fall in GDP. It's not an opinion, it's an economic formula you'll find in any A level economics textbook.
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amyelizabeth2681
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#64
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#64
(Original post by The_Great_One)
The country can't rely on the public sector because you can't have more people taking out of the economy than you have putting in. Private companies put in public takes out. The only people that think otherwise are socialists and trade union members aka communists who have their own agendas. You can't increase jobs in the public sector and not have as many people working in the private sector why do you think no other country in the world has done it. Also the people in this country don't want that as theirs a few parties who advocate it and we always vote opposite such as Tory, Bnp, ukip or labour who all cut spending.
Alright let me give you a definition of the public sector:

The public sector, sometimes referred to as the state sector or the government sector, is a part of the state that deals with either the production, ownership, sale, provision, delivery and allocation of goods and services by and for the government or its citizens, whether national, regional or local/municipal. This includes state schools, hospitals, the civil service, the police and the court systems.

Now that THAT is out of the way, how exactly does the public sector take out of the economy? They are employed by government bodies, collecting salaries. This leads to consumer spending which will directly lead to economic growth. These people also pay TAXES, the main form of government revenue. You cut the public sector, you're cutting jobs. You cut jobs, you cut government revenue. Not only that, but then those you made unemployed are forced into the welfare system, taking more money from the government. You're missing the point. The public sector is just as important as the private sector, but unless you plan on privatising schools, the NHS, and the police, you can't get rid of the public sector and is just as important. Do your research and quit talking nonsense.
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ufo2012
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#65
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#65
(Original post by amyelizabeth2681)
When George Osborne goes on about how cutting the deficit won't hinder economic growth, he's either lying or is too incompetent to see it. Cutting jobs within the public sector leads to a reduction in people in jobs, which means a reduction in tax revenue and a rise in the welfare bill. It's no wonder it's projected he'll have to borrow an extra £20 bn this year alone just to cope with that very issue. I'm not picking sides, both parties are just as bad as each other, but it's common sense. Maybe Osborne should consider buying an economics handbook before he's finished ruining it.
I think it is the former. Even though recent claims ask how will he survive another month/few months never mind another 12 months, despite being told numerous times what needs to be done to stimulate the economy and continually ignoring it - it seems obvious that he has some kind of agenda of his own. Whether he seems to think that he is going to come up with some kind of "magic bullet", or maybe his attitude in his mind is "don't peak too early" (as voters need to remember the good things he will do for them before the next election), I just don't know - but certainly he is hiding something up his sleeve.
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bkeevin
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#66
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#66
(Original post by jesusandtequila)
Once you account for debt interest, and inflation then current expenditure goes like this: from 10/11-11/12, it goes up 0.3%. From 11/12-12/13 (the present period) it goes up 1.3%. It drops 2.7% over the period 10/11-16/17. To blame these so-called deep cuts (when spending is increasing currently) is absolutely barmy.



Re-inflating the bubble is NOT better stewardship. Having a hangover is not best treated by swigging down more vodka. We're only in this bloody double dip because we already tried to re-inflate it once in 09/10. Of course we're going to be in a bloody big recession because we were in a huge bubble, producing all the wrong things and with huge price distortions (all thank you, central banking). It's inevitable that we have a recession, the bubble-boom caused it. Re-inflating the bubble won't stop that happening, it'll just make the pain worse later on.

Real growth is that based on voluntary trade (which creates wealth) where money is sound - that is that the interest rate (price of time) is not distorted by some central authority.
I will concede that the government has not yet made real cuts(Osborne's PR is so good it is killing us!) since we are seeing big increases in some minor departments like Overseas Aid or energy and climate change.

The fact is there have been cuts various major departments especially within the infrastructure and the construction industry. The current regime has cut public orders by almost 50% over the past two years when they usually made over 30% of construction work. The effect of these cuts coupled with the gloomy climate perpetuated by this administration and its detractors is making us feel the pain more than even the eurozone who are still growing even if it is too slow.
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amyelizabeth2681
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#67
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#67
(Original post by ufo2012)
I think it is the former. Even though recent claims ask how will he survive another month/few months never mind another 12 months, despite being told numerous times what needs to be done to stimulate the economy and continually ignoring it - it seems obvious that he has some kind of agenda of his own. Whether he seems to think that he is going to come up with some kind of "magic bullet", or maybe his attitude in his mind is "don't peak too early" (as voters need to remember the good things he will do for them before the next election), I just don't know - but certainly he is hiding something up his sleeve.
I'm not entirely sure what's worse, but I also believe its probably the former. It's perhaps a mixture of arrogance and an agenda of his own. That agenda may be anything from attempting to shove through the Conservative ideal of a smaller state by calling it a necessary evil or maybe he is trying not to peak too early after all, whichever, we're the ones getting screwed, and he has no signs of breaking course despite the dismal GDP figures released yesterday.
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ufo2012
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#68
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#68
(Original post by amyelizabeth2681)
I'm not entirely sure what's worse, but I also believe its probably the former. It's perhaps a mixture of arrogance and an agenda of his own. That agenda may be anything from attempting to shove through the Conservative ideal of a smaller state by calling it a necessary evil or maybe he is trying not to peak too early after all, whichever, we're the ones getting screwed, and he has no signs of breaking course despite the dismal GDP figures released yesterday.
While I do think that arrogance is indeed mixed in there, I don't think he is 'stupid' as is often implied about him.

Call me crazy, but I actually think that he is a rather smart man who knows exactly what he is doing, but what he is doing is not necessarily for the benefit of the people at large (as you have indicated from his possible agendas).

This is particularly noticeable when questioned about the recent 0.7% figures - you can see he has complete tunnel vision and won't stray from his chosen path. Although in interviews before I noticed his tone appeared more that he was trying to convince "this is what we need to do to improve things", his tone yesterday indicated very much "look, this is how it is, now get over it and let me get on with my plans for destruction".

Although many want him out (if you believe the opinion polls his ratings have probably never been lower), realistically who is going to out him unless there is some kind of mutiny from the other MPs? The PM certainly does not appear in any rush to reshuffle.
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amyelizabeth2681
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#69
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#69
(Original post by ufo2012)
While I do think that arrogance is indeed mixed in there, I don't think he is 'stupid' as is often implied about him.

Call me crazy, but I actually think that he is a rather smart man who knows exactly what he is doing, but what he is doing is not necessarily for the benefit of the people at large (as you have indicated from his possible agendas).

This is particularly noticeable when questioned about the recent 0.7% figures - you can see he has complete tunnel vision and won't stray from his chosen path. Although in interviews before I noticed his tone appeared more that he was trying to convince "this is what we need to do to improve things", his tone yesterday indicated very much "look, this is how it is, now get over it and let me get on with my plans for destruction".

Although many want him out (if you believe the opinion polls his ratings have probably never been lower), realistically who is going to out him unless there is some kind of mutiny from the other MPs? The PM certainly does not appear in any rush to reshuffle.
Nope, not stupid at all, and perhaps that's even more disconcerting than if he were just ignorant. Watching him do interviews is downright eerie, where he refuses to give in to his ideologies no matter what figures he's presented with. It's no wonder they've called him the "part time chancellor", he's also a big strategist for the Conservative party and is using the economy for his and Cameron's ideological pursuits, not what's best for the country.

And no I'm afraid he's not going anywhere. I mean, David Cameron wouldn't even let Jeremy Hunt go after the fiasco that was the BSkyB bid, I doubt he'll give up his right hand man, no matter how bad things get. To David Cameron, getting rid of Osborne would be like admitting he failed in his big austerity measures, and he's just about as arrogant as Osborne.
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