Turn on thread page Beta

27 out of 28 economists polled said British economy will suffer by leaving EU watch

Announcements
    Offline

    14
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    Probably because economists in general have a habitual tendency to be completely and utterly wrong. In predicting stocks and funds for example, the majority of experts perform worse than the market average, and in one study only 60% were able to perform better than funds whose strategies were decided by throwing darts. Seriously.
    I do wonder how many of them supported the joining of the single currency...
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Josb)
    Uncertainty about what? The UK wouldn't be a new country with a different currency.
    Uncertainty about almost everything. All those things that got EU funding before, will they still get that funding from the UK government? Will there be any sort of free trade agreement? If so what? What's to happen with the 2m migrant workers? If there isn't a trade deal what level will import and export tarrifs be set at? How will this impact upon trade? Of the things we are bound to do in the EU, will they be abandoned or not? What are the consequences of those choices? What will the result of the two year exit negotiations be?

    The only certainty with a vote to leave is that the out campaign won.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Lower long term investment from the EU and ergo lower job creation. There's less incentive for Mercedes to build a new factory here if we wish to diverge from EU regulation as the right wishes.

    Minimal job losses from existing factories though, costs are already sunk.
    If Mercedes builds a car factory in the UK, it's to sell the cars there (you drive left).
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Uncertainty about almost everything. All those things that got EU funding before, will they still get that funding from the UK government? Will there be any sort of free trade agreement? If so what? What's to happen with the 2m migrant workers? If there isn't a trade deal what level will import and export tarrifs be set at? How will this impact upon trade? Of the things we are bound to do in the EU, will they be abandoned or not? What are the consequences of those choices? What will the result of the two year exit negotiations be?

    The only certainty with a vote to leave is that the out campaign won.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I don't think it will change much.

    There will be a free trade agreement, simply because pretty much every European country has a large trade surplus with the UK; they have more to lose with tariffs than the UK.

    There will be a tourist visa agreement because Brits come in millions in the Alps or on the Mediterranean shores; Spain, France, Italy and Greece can't afford to lose them.

    There will be a residency visa agreement because British pensioners have bought hundreds of thousands of houses in France and especially Spain, whose economy is still very fragile. Imposing visas on British citizens now could create a housing crisis in Spain and contaminate the rest of the EU.

    Whether the British government decides to replace European grants or not is a British matter. The process of delivering grants would probably be faster and better tailored for the British economy.

    The only uncertainty imo is whether working visas will be delivered as easily as before. Perhaps not, but since the UK imports much more workers from the EU, it could unilaterally issue working visas to the best European workers and continue the brain-drain.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Josb)
    I don't think it will change much.

    There will be a free trade agreement, simply because pretty much every European country has a large trade surplus with the UK; they have more to lose with tariffs than the UK.

    There will be a tourist visa agreement because Brits come in millions in the Alps or on the Mediterranean shores; Spain, France, Italy and Greece can't afford to lose them.

    There will be a residency visa agreement because British pensioners have bought hundreds of thousands of houses in France and especially Spain, whose economy is still very fragile. Imposing visas on British citizens now could create a housing crisis in Spain and contaminate the rest of the EU.

    Whether the British government decides to replace European grants or not is a British matter. The process of delivering grants would probably be faster and better tailored for the British economy.

    The only uncertainty imo is whether working visas will be delivered as easily as before. Perhaps not, but since the UK imports much more workers from the EU, it could unilaterally issue working visas to the best European workers and continue the brain-drain.

    But for an investor none of this is certain enough, and if the choice of investment for the next couple of years is say a 5% return investing somewhere with low uncertainty in, say, Germany, or they could invest in the UK where if things come of beneficially they will in a few years get a 6pc return, mixed effects might get 4.5 and if things go as the scaremongers to stay say it's only say 3pc, they're choosing that safe 5pc

    We can say "we will get this" all we like, but that's not good enough for an investor that could lose big if you're wrong, they want the piece if paper saying "we're probably going to give you that", or better still " are giving you that"

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Josb)
    If Mercedes builds a car factory in the UK, it's to sell the cars there (you drive left).
    Not so. We have a trade surplus in car exports precisely because if a company wants a European base with skilled labour in a state which already meets EU import regulations then the UK is quite attractive.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But for an investor none of this is certain enough, and if the choice of investment for the next couple of years is say a 5% return investing somewhere with low uncertainty in, say, Germany, or they could invest in the UK where if things come of beneficially they will in a few years get a 6pc return, mixed effects might get 4.5 and if things go as the scaremongers to stay say it's only say 3pc, they're choosing that safe 5pc

    We can say "we will get this" all we like, but that's not good enough for an investor that could lose big if you're wrong, they want the piece if paper saying "we're probably going to give you that", or better still " are giving you that"

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I'm not sure an investor would think the EU is a "safe" bet.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Not so. We have a trade surplus in car exports precisely because if a company wants a European base with skilled labour in a state which already meets EU import regulations then the UK is quite attractive.
    Well, nothing prevents a company from respecting EU regulations. I don't see the problem.
    Offline

    11
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by JordanL_)
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

    Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?
    Don't care. I'll still be voting to leave.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Josb)
    I'm not sure an investor would think the EU is a "safe" bet.
    I specified Germany for a reason, it is very similar economically to the UK, slightly larger manufacturing and smaller service sectors resulting in higher trade I'll grant you, but in terms of GDP per capita, unemployment, growth etc we are not actually that dissimilar. The most significant difference would be that investors would have far greater certainty about the future for Germany than Britain, which makes it a far safer bet.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Josb)
    Well, nothing prevents a company from respecting EU regulations. I don't see the problem.
    While that's true if the UK diverges then the costs of conforming to both UK and European regulations may be a disincentive.
    Offline

    10
    ReputationRep:
    You could probably find 30 UK economists just as credible as the ones polled that would say Britain would be better off if we left
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Why is anyone going to refuse to sell us anything if we leave the EU?
    They won't, that's the point I'm making. It's in nobody's interest to ditch all the trade that takes place regardless of the result. I was referring to all the ridiculous scare tactics being employed by both sides.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by JamesN88)
    They won't, that's the point I'm making. It's in nobody's interest to ditch all the trade that takes place regardless of the result. I was referring to all the ridiculous scare tactics being employed by both sides.
    Well, who is saying that they will refuse to sell us anything?

    The issue are tariffs that will be imposed if we leave the EU.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, who is saying that they will refuse to sell us anything?

    The issue are tariffs that will be imposed if we leave the EU.
    Why the "will" and not "could"? Can you see the future? Does this mean that we do vote to leave because why else would you know.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by GonvilleBromhead)
    A whole twenty eight people? My life has changed. What a ridiculous sample size.

    Also there are too many variables to accurately assess:

    "Most of the mainly UK-based market and academic economists polled expected trade to worsen with Britain struggling to negotiate a favourable trade deal with its former EU partners after renouncing membership of the world's largest trading bloc"

    They have no legal authority to deny us right to buy in to the free market, this is an example of pointless assertions. Given we pay out more for imports than we export and much of that to Germany we should be allowed to buy back in. This point is equally valid and equally without evidence.
    Of course the EU has the legal authority to deny access to the free market? One cannot just buy in a free market.

    (Original post by GonvilleBromhead)
    "As well as the risk of Britain losing its unfettered access to its biggest trading partner, its companies might find it harder to tap into the pool of potential employees in the rest of the EU to fill their vacancies. Britain could also end up outside an area that accounts for just under a third of the value of all cross-border investment"

    No evidence, why wouldnt the employees come anyway if the pay is good?
    Evidence: The difficulty of non-EU employees to get a working permit.

    (Original post by JamesN88)
    I'm a pro-European but the idea that the Germans, French, Italians etc would suddenly refuse to sell us a **** load of cars every year is laughable. It's as ridiculous as Cameron claiming the jungle will move to Kent or UKIP's idea of a magical world where everything suddenly becomes perfect if we leave.
    I think it is more directed at the false promise, one would had not to apply EU rules to be able to sell goods within the EU. That is simply not true and hence the laws would stay the same, just witthout the possibility of Britain to shape those laws. (It is the same with the US and China, they have their own laws, and one has to apply them, see e.g. the application of US safety rules in European factories for certain goods, meant to be sold to the US.) In addition the red tape would increase, because of customs, etc.
    Of course Audi and BMW etc. would still sell their cars, the negatives would probably involve more the manufacturing (less British parts used), more red tape, etc. ....
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Josb)
    There will be a free trade agreement, simply because pretty much every European country has a large trade surplus with the UK; they have more to lose with tariffs than the UK.
    The UK needs the others, too, so the EU is in a very good negotiating positions, much better than now. The EU can simply play with time. UK can't. The problem is: How to get a free trade agreement without disadvantages? (That is what the UK wants, but won't get.)

    (Original post by Josb)
    There will be a tourist visa agreement because Brits come in millions in the Alps or on the Mediterranean shores; Spain, France, Italy and Greece can't afford to lose them.
    Yeah, and?

    (Original post by Josb)
    There will be a residency visa agreement because British pensioners have bought hundreds of thousands of houses in France and especially Spain, whose economy is still very fragile. Imposing visas on British citizens now could create a housing crisis in Spain and contaminate the rest of the EU.
    Ahem, you don't know the French and their housing taxes, or? Residency visa agreement? Really? Without getting the same for French? Does London need no tourists at all? Again: Those agreements won't be a one way agreement!

    (Original post by Josb)
    Whether the British government decides to replace European grants or not is a British matter. The process of delivering grants would probably be faster and better tailored for the British economy.
    Hm, I think universities won't really be too convinced, that the British government will give them more funding ... and others not able to wait these years, until the British grant system works, is implemented and understood by the lawyers.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by JordanL_)
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bri...-idUKKCN0VL0ZB

    Why does everyone think they know better than people that actually study economics?
    Nobody really knows ... Economics is not an exact science.
    The true effect might take in excess of 10 years to be felt ...
    Who knows by then .... we may be the 51st of the US.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Why the "will" and not "could"? Can you see the future?
    No. It is based on the PRESENT situation.

    Since, nothing new has been agreed, according to present rules, if the UK leaves the EU in 2 years then they will be subject to Tariffs.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    The UK needs the others, too, so the EU is in a very good negotiating positions, much better than now. The EU can simply play with time. UK can't. The problem is: How to get a free trade agreement without disadvantages? (That is what the UK wants, but won't get.)
    The rest of the EU has a massive trade deficit with the UK. If they want to keep it, they'd better rapidly find an agreement, or companies based in other countries will suddenly become much more competitive there.


    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    Yeah, and?
    Without British tourists, there would be a sharp economic decline in some localised areas, whilst the UK is not that dependent on European tourists.


    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    Ahem, you don't know the French and their housing taxes, or? Residency visa agreement? Really? Without getting the same for French? Does London need no tourists at all? Again: Those agreements won't be a one way agreement!
    The UK doesn't need foreigners to support its housing market, whilst there would be a crisis in Spain without British expats.


    (Original post by Nathanielle)
    Hm, I think universities won't really be too convinced, that the British government will give them more funding ... and others not able to wait these years, until the British grant system works, is implemented and understood by the lawyers.
    The EU has nothing to do with that.


    If the UK had a large trade surplus with the EU and an economy based on European tourism, then it would be silly from her to leave, but it's the contrary. The EU needs the UK much more than the UK needs the EU.
    You will see the Spanish government begging the Commission to give visas to Brits, or giving them unilaterally, then big German companies will also ask for a free trade deal because of their exports, then French farmers will demonstrate violently against any tariff so they can continue to export their products there, etc.
 
 
 
Poll
Do you think parents should charge rent?
Useful resources

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Write a reply...
Reply
Hide
Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.