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    I certainly do not expect any further exits.

    Sweden and Denmark may eventually exit but if so they will have been essentially forced out by the EU. There will not be a two-speed Europe for these tiny countries as there has been for the UK and they must decide how to respond to that.

    I consider Scexit less likely than Scremain but it is nonetheless a possible outcome.

    I consider the referendum result being somehow overturned less likely than not but nonetheless a possible outcome.
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    I certainly think that there are countries which may vote to Leave the EU (France being the biggest) however i don't consider the Netherlands to be one of them. Despite what polls say, at the ballot box the skeptics have never had what i consider real success.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I certainly think that there are countries which may vote to Leave the EU (France being the biggest) however i don't consider the Netherlands to be one of them. Despite what polls say, at the ballot box the skeptics have never had what i consider real success.
    Lots of pressures on the Netherlands to not leave, not least that they are in the Euro (and effectively Germany's shipping port), but with Wilders ahead in the polls, I should think anything's possible now following the Brexit vote.

    France I think won't elect Le Pen, so there is basically no chance of a Frexit, no matter how much her mob of neo-Nazis, hard-right post-Gaullists and posturing ruralists are desperate for it.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    I certainly do not expect any further exits.

    Sweden and Denmark may eventually exit but if so they will have been essentially forced out by the EU. There will not be a two-speed Europe for these tiny countries as there has been for the UK and they must decide how to respond to that.

    I consider Scexit less likely than Scremain but it is nonetheless a possible outcome.

    I consider the referendum result being somehow overturned less likely than not but nonetheless a possible outcome.
    Isn't the most likely outcome that a deal will be struck about continued access to the single market and some face-saving giving way on immigration and continuation of contributions?

    The situation in a few years time when that is done and dusted is that most people will be scratching their heads wondering why we had to have a referendum and there will also be solid chunks of angry kippers and racists furious that the immigrants are not being sent home after all, even though they were promised it.

    A few years after that, people will start to get angry that we are enforcing EU decisions without a say in the process and demanding to know the reason. :rolleyes:
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Isn't the most likely outcome that a deal will be struck about continued access to the single market and some face-saving giving way on immigration and continuation of contributions?

    The situation in a few years time when that is done and dusted is that most people will be scratching their heads wondering why we had to have a referendum and there will also be solid chunks of angry kippers and racists furious that the immigrants are not being sent home after all, even though they were promised it.

    A few years after that, people will start to get angry that we are enforcing EU decisions without a say in the process and demanding to know the reason. :rolleyes:
    Single market access pretty much necessitates paying in, but given at most it's likely about 2bn it's not too bad compared to current terms, and comes with much lesser application of the rules

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Single market access pretty much necessitates paying in, but given at most it's likely about 2bn it's not too bad compared to current terms, and comes with much lesser application of the rules

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    Are you projecting that figure from Norway? I suspect it will be a good deal more.

    Farage, who has no shame, will of course be sniping from the sidelines about it all being far too much to bear, etc, etc.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Are you projecting that figure from Norway? I suspect it will be a good deal more.

    Farage, who has no shame, will of course be sniping from the sidelines about it all being far too much to bear, etc, etc.
    Yeah, which assuming proportional costs remain constant, it could go down, it's the maximum given Norway sign up to pretty much everything

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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    A few years after that, people will start to get angry that we are enforcing EU decisions without a say in the process and demanding to know the reason. :rolleyes:
    Damn those pesky democrats
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Isn't the most likely outcome that a deal will be struck about continued access to the single market and some face-saving giving way on immigration and continuation of contributions?
    I think so.

    One could argue that this is Remain in all but name. I don't think that is quite true but many Leave voters may perceive it that way.

    On the other hand you could argue that last week's deal of no Euro involvement and no Schengen was also Leave in all but name.

    I consider the direction of travel in this referendum to be more important than how far it will actually take us. It is clearly a breakpoint ending British involvement in the "nationstate of Europe" for a generation and probably forever. It probably will not immediately result in worldwide unilateral free trade and a bonfire of EU regulations as some of us hope.

    The situation in a few years time when that is done and dusted is that most people will be scratching their heads wondering why we had to have a referendum
    I'm not sure that is true. I think that in 20 years people will scratch their heads wondering why we ever joined the EEC.
 
 
 
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