Hey there! Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

If the result is Leave, will we leave? Watch

  • View Poll Results: After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...
    End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change
    37
    21.02%
    End up remaining but with some meaningful changes
    17
    9.66%
    Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change
    72
    40.91%
    Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically
    50
    28.41%

    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    If we leave, a lot of the good graduate jobs in financial services industry will be gone. As well as a lot of big4 accounting jobs.


    EDIT: I'm joking. London will still be a huge financial Center whatever happens. Singapore isn't in any fancy club but they're a large financial Center. We're still going to be geographically close to the EU and any economics downturns will be temporary. In the long term, the lack of bureaucracy and trade restrictions will probably help the economy to grow.
    Offline

    14
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Drewski)
    I see you're new to FoS. This is what she does each and every time.
    I was going to say. The person seems surprised at her behavior or something.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    How we leave depends greatly on who replaces Cameron at the helm of the Tories. Provided it's somebody from the current cabinet and not a hard line skeptic or Remainer then something like the following will happen.. Gove will be dispatched to Brussels to negotiate our exit, his mission being to keep us in the single market while securing an opt out from immigration constraints.. after around 3 months negotiations will break down when the EU plays hard ball and wants us to accept free movement in return for the single market.. after another 3 months the government will start to look stupid and be thinking of 2020 so Gove will replaced.. the new guy will be instructed to capitulate on free movement to secure the deal, the deal is done within a year bar the technicalities, the UK leaves at the end of 2018 to join EFTA.

    *Note that both sides will want to make it look good so instead of pure free movement we'll capitulate to something a minimum EU immigrant quota of a couple hundred thousand. The EU will say their citizens still get to come, the government will say they've secured a meaningful cap on immigration from the EU and probably get an exception for new EU members.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Trapz99)
    If we leave, a lot of the good graduate jobs in financial services industry will be gone. As well as a lot of big4 accounting jobs.


    EDIT: I'm joking. London will still be a huge financial Center whatever happens. Singapore isn't in any fancy club but they're a large financial Center. We're still going to be geographically close to the EU and any economics downturns will be temporary. In the long term, the lack of bureaucracy and trade restrictions will probably help the economy to grow.
    You've seen the reports tonight from the former UBS top economist saying sterling will drop 30% and equities 20% after withdrawal?
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    How we leave depends greatly on who replaces Cameron at the helm of the Tories. Provided it's somebody from the current cabinet and not a hard line skeptic or Remainer then something like the following will happen.. Gove will be dispatched to Brussels to negotiate our exit, his mission being to keep us in the single market while securing an opt out from immigration constraints.. after around 3 months negotiations will break down when the EU plays hard ball and wants us to accept free movement in return for the single market.. after another 3 months the government will start to look stupid and be thinking of 2020 so Gove will replaced.. the new guy will be instructed to capitulate on free movement to secure the deal, the deal is done within a year bar the technicalities, the UK leaves at the end of 2018 to join EFTA.

    *Note that both sides will want to make it look good so instead of pure free movement we'll capitulate to something a minimum EU immigrant quota of a couple hundred thousand. The EU will say their citizens still get to come, the government will say they've secured a meaningful cap on immigration from the EU and probably get an exception for new EU members.
    We will also have to accept all EU regulations and most likely will remain part of the EU court frameworks.


    So we end up after the whole thing with no serious change but no share in the decisions about what happens in the EU.

    A good job well done by Farage, Gove, etc. Placing our future in the hands of bizarre extreme radical Tory ideologues for only superficial change to empower their egoistic zealotry and deranged fantasies.
    Offline

    13
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    How we leave depends greatly on who replaces Cameron at the helm of the Tories. Provided it's somebody from the current cabinet and not a hard line skeptic or Remainer then something like the following will happen.. Gove will be dispatched to Brussels to negotiate our exit, his mission being to keep us in the single market while securing an opt out from immigration constraints.. after around 3 months negotiations will break down when the EU plays hard ball and wants us to accept free movement in return for the single market.. after another 3 months the government will start to look stupid and be thinking of 2020 so Gove will replaced.. the new guy will be instructed to capitulate on free movement to secure the deal, the deal is done within a year bar the technicalities, the UK leaves at the end of 2018 to join EFTA.

    *Note that both sides will want to make it look good so instead of pure free movement we'll capitulate to something a minimum EU immigrant quota of a couple hundred thousand. The EU will say their citizens still get to come, the government will say they've secured a meaningful cap on immigration from the EU and probably get an exception for new EU members.
    Pretty much this- but I think we'd have to pay contributions too.
    • Thread Starter
    Offline

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Davij038)
    Pretty much this- but I think we'd have to pay contributions too.
    Norway does - over 300m Euros a year.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    We will also have to accept all EU regulations and most likely will remain part of the EU court frameworks.

    So we end up after the whole thing with no serious change but no share in the decisions about what happens in the EU.

    A good job well done by Farage, Gove, etc. Placing our future in the hands of bizarre extreme radical Tory ideologues for only superficial change to empower their egoistic zealotry and deranged fantasies.
    We'll certainly have to abide by about 25% of directives and ECJ will as now still enforce it. For me i'd be pleased with that though, we'd be out of CAP, we'd have a smaller net contribution and we'd withdraw from the CFP.

    (Original post by Davij038)
    Pretty much this- but I think we'd have to pay contributions too.
    Yes. Norway scaled up suggests about £3bn but that's much less than our current net contribution.

    I'm also getting round to quoting your earlier posts, i've not forgot.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    What a surprise that the poll options are weighted to make remaining sound better
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    We'll certainly have to abide by about 25% of directives and ECJ will as now still enforce it. For me i'd be pleased with that though, we'd be out of CAP, we'd have a smaller net contribution and we'd withdraw from the CFP.



    Yes. Norway scaled up suggests about £3bn but that's much less than our current net contribution.

    I'm also getting round to quoting your earlier posts, i've not forgot.
    The other thing about Norway is that its government's position is pay into every EU thing they can, if we scale up Switzerland the cost is lower, or Iceland it is lower again.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    The other thing about Norway is that its government's position is pay into every EU thing they can, if we scale up Switzerland the cost is lower, or Iceland it is lower again.
    We won't get a Swiss deal (s). The complexity and sheer beaurocracy required is something the EU view as a mistake. We'll either have the Korean model (simple free trade - depends on a hardline skeptic being elected and willing to be out of the single market) or we'll have the standard EFTA.
    • Political Ambassador
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    Political Ambassador
    (Original post by Rakas21)
    We won't get a Swiss deal (s). The complexity and sheer beaurocracy required is something the EU view as a mistake. We'll either have the Korean model (simple free trade - depends on a hardline skeptic being elected and willing to be out of the single market) or we'll have the standard EFTA.
    I doubt we will get a trade deal like any of the ones that already exists, but the point I was making is that for Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland the cost, above the baseline cost, depends on what you want to be a part of, Iceland doesn't take part in much they don't have to, Norway pretty much everything, Switzerland somewhere in the middle.
    Offline

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I doubt we will get a trade deal like any of the ones that already exists, but the point I was making is that for Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland the cost, above the baseline cost, depends on what you want to be a part of, Iceland doesn't take part in much they don't have to, Norway pretty much everything, Switzerland somewhere in the middle.
    Fair point. Given the likely leaders though i'd imagine we will be in most things.
    Online

    20
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Or do they? Many sources seem to think Cameron is really for Leave.

    I think what is clear though is that the parts of the wealthy Right that have a clear interest in exploiting working people are all for Leave. When they talk about freedom, they don't mean for ordinary people - they mean the freedom to treat people like ****.
    and Boris is secretly for remain :laugh:

    That's politics. Cameron is a PR politician (Boris just wants top job). If he has any strong views he doesn't act on them or show them. Those sorts of people just want power for the fun of it, not to do anything with power when they get it. He is basically a manager for the sorts of people/class me and you don;t like. I think a better description of the situation is that the oligarchy is fighting among itself on what is best for that class. Also nationalism is the religion of the enlightenment. It is entirely possible for that class (and anyone) to put ideas of sovereignty above their own pockets. I would say the ones who only follow their pockets and are part of the "mainstream" neoliberal consensus want to remain.

    All the arguments for both remain and leave from this oligarch class and their representatives in politics are all awful and shouldn't be what anyone who doesn't want to be their paupers bases there in/out vote (unless you vote based on stopping the worse side form winning). Left wingers certainly should not be siding with either of these remain/leave factions.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

    My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

    Thoughts?
    It largely depends on the politics of the Conservative party. First, how strong the Eurosceptic wing of the parliamentary party is and if it finds effective leadership. Second, how strong the Eurosceptic feeling is in the country and the Conservatives' fears of losing votes to UKIP if they are perceived to not be playing ball over a Leave vote.

    What may happen is Cameron stays on or is replaced by Osborne/May etc, after the referendum is over the public get bored of Europe and move on. If this happens, I still expect the leave vote to be formally honoured but I expect the negotiations between the Government and EU will be based around trying to recreate as much as possible the existing relationship. Whilst Remain are saying "why would the EU countries allow us to do that, they will want to punish us", if they are being pragmatic the EU countries won't want anything to disrupt their market access to the UK and effectively "minimal change" option for them is - nothing's different for us apart from the UK are no longer involved in EU decisions, and some of them might be glad. In this case we'll get some kind of access to the single market in exchange for free movement and so on.

    If Boris, Gove or a dark horse like Liam Fox takes over then expect a much more hostile negotiation. We will almost certainly leave but there will be a lot of bluster and argument and might well end up with a kind of WTO agreement with some tariffs in place. However, I don't think this is the armageddon situation that Remain are making out to be, there would be disruption for a few years and then things would settle down and over time the EU would look to extend us in to their free trade area at least.
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Trapz99)
    If we leave, a lot of the good graduate jobs in financial services industry will be gone. As well as a lot of big4 accounting jobs.


    EDIT: I'm joking. London will still be a huge financial Center whatever happens. Singapore isn't in any fancy club but they're a large financial Center. We're still going to be geographically close to the EU and any economics downturns will be temporary. In the long term, the lack of bureaucracy and trade restrictions will probably help the economy to grow.
    Singapore is in APEC which accounts for literally half of all international trade...

    And you're making too many assumptions and speculations.
    Offline

    10
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I don't disagree that there are lots of possible variations.

    The main point of my thread is that I am questioning what seems to be a trusting attitude on the part of many Leave voters that they can vote leave and then within a few months, we will be out of the EU. It's far more likely that there would have to be prolonged negotiations and if the Conservatives are in turmoil (likely) or replaced as the government (possible) then it is quite plausible that we would not leave.

    I think your number (4) is highly likely and a second referendum would be offered after apparent concessions to the Leavers. There is ample precedent for this.
    Hmm you think? I think that they will trigger article 50 but not straight away. I dont think cameron will last either. He blew the fear tactics beyond reason. Even if we remain hes lost a lot of respect from the backbenchers. Secretly we know corbyn wants to leave so once the vote is over I think he will push for the labour party to respect the decision. The conservative party would probably disintegrate if there is any foul play on their side haha
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    You've seen the reports tonight from the former UBS top economist saying sterling will drop 30% and equities 20% after withdrawal?
    All in the short term.
    Online

    21
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by drogon)
    Singapore is in APEC which accounts for literally half of all international trade...

    And you're making too many assumptions and speculations.
    What about America, China, India? They aren't part of clubs like the EU. Oh, and Canada as well- they're doing very well compared to the UK and they are very independent.
    • Welcome Squad
    Offline

    20
    Welcome Squad
    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    I choose:
    -Leave, things getting better. Less pressure on our economy, lower tax charges and better control on amount of immigration
    If you think those changes will be implemented immediately then you're kidding yourself.
 
 
 
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • Poll
    Has a teacher ever helped you cheat?
    Useful resources

    Groups associated with this forum:

    View associated groups
  • See more of what you like on The Student Room

    You can personalise what you see on TSR. Tell us a little about yourself to get started.

  • The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

    Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

    Write a reply...
    Reply
    Hide
    Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.