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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    I often wonder if the people bleating out economic figures and whipping up want things to be worse for them to prove a point, or even they even care what it actually means. Isn't their argument over which is best, a fall or rise, within limits? I mean couldn't a fall be good for exports?
    A fall in the price of exports via a depreciation also means a rise in the price of imports. Now given that the usual household consumption bundle contains a mixture of domestic goods and imported goods, what do you think?
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    It is fantastic for exports. Businesses like JCB who export all over the world are laughing right now. Nothing stimulates demand in an economy like depreciation, it is like a shot of adrenaline.

    The big down side is that everything we import in will be more expensive. This particularly hurts people whos incomes are fixed like students and pensioners, public sector workers. Holidays will be more expensive. Food will be more expensive. Electronics will be more expensive.

    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty. Because businesses don't know what the terms of Brexit will be, they are just going to do nothing and baton down the hatches. They will stop investing, they will stop hiring, they will start letting people go. Even export businesses that are profiting will do the same, simply because they don't know what the rules are going to be.

    Whether there will be a GDP recession in the next 6 months is hard to say because of the impact of the devaluation may outweigh the hit to investment and domestic spending. However what I'm pretty confident about is that job creation will grind to a halt and job destruction will increase as companies that suffer from Brexit start firing and companies that benefit will likely just work their staff harder and pay them a bonus rather than employ more people.

    Well said. You sound like an economist
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    (Original post by Audrey18)

    Bicker all you want. The fact remains. Brexit was achieved.
    The fact REMAINS Brexit hasn't been achieved. And if it does happen it will not be under the terms that most Leavers want.

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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    It is fantastic for exports. Businesses like JCB who export all over the world are laughing right now. Nothing stimulates demand in an economy like depreciation, it is like a shot of adrenaline.

    The big down side is that everything we import in will be more expensive. This particularly hurts people whos incomes are fixed like students and pensioners, public sector workers. Holidays will be more expensive. Food will be more expensive. Electronics will be more expensive.

    However the real economic impact of Brexit isn't the short term movements in currency. The real impact is the uncertainty. Because businesses don't know what the terms of Brexit will be, they are just going to do nothing and baton down the hatches. They will stop investing, they will stop hiring, they will start letting people go. Even export businesses that are profiting will do the same, simply because they don't know what the rules are going to be.

    Whether there will be a GDP recession in the next 6 months is hard to say because of the impact of the devaluation may outweigh the hit to investment and domestic spending. However what I'm pretty confident about is that job creation will grind to a halt and job destruction will increase as companies that suffer from Brexit start firing and companies that benefit will likely just work their staff harder and pay them a bonus rather than employ more people.
    You seem knowledgable on economics. I voted leave and don't buy the economic arguments supposedly in our interest for remain. I look at the prosperity of Norway and Switzerland outside the EU. I look at southern Europe, and disastrous unemployment. I look at the colonies we built and our wealth built historically by links to the world. Then I look at the protectionism and red tape of the EU. Seemingly, and I don't know specifics on this, there is no ability to trade with China and India, as far as I can tell.
    It would seem pretty lamentable, given our history as a global trading nation, that tiny Iceland has a trade deal with China and we can't get one in the EU. India too. Maybe that is wrong but we seem to do sod all trade with them given the size of them.
    I fail to see any long term benefits from membership, and I hope nations like France proclaim independence. It seem like it was all about short term benefit for establishment, and also like the people who want corporate dictatorship(The EU would seem detrimental to smaller firms with it's legislation and bureacracy from what I gather) and moves towards global government(Jack Straw talks, somewhat chillingly about 'the post-democratic era' ). I only see more long term prosperity, better conditions for smaller British firms, better prices on goods, and a very healthy move towards liberty, democracy and against globalist tyranny. Or am I wrong?
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    (Original post by Delilah234)
    A fall in the price of exports via a depreciation also means a rise in the price of imports. Now given that the usual household consumption bundle contains a mixture of domestic goods and imported goods, what do you think?
    Well i was saying, I'm not an economist, but even just using intuition and sense you can see it's all rather melodramatic and driven by a biased agenda from the media.
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    The economic catastrophe continues!

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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    Well i was saying, I'm not an economist, but even just using intuition and sense you can see it's all rather melodramatic and driven by a biased agenda from the media.
    The media rely on the experts in their field to help fuel their stories. The same way the media might report that doctors are saying that it would be a sorely bad idea to go swimming in a stagnant river doesn't make what the various economists and experts said about the aftermath of the EU exit melodramatic. Maybe the way the media you've come across reported the various Brexit stories might be melodramatic but honestly, it really is just an analysis of the current trends. It really isn't melodramatic, it's merely stating what is likely to happen given current trends. Yes a fall in the pound might help boost exports but it also dampens imports. For the average member of the public, they are much more likely to be affected by the dampened imports than the boost in exports.

    It is not a biased agenda, they're just relying on the people that know their stuff to help them inform the public. Just because one newspaper chooses to focus on the negatives doesn't mean that another might do the same. There are many different news sources to choose from and i'm sure that they aren't all 'driven by a biased agenda'.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    I look at the colonies we built and our wealth built historically by links to the world.
    The British invaded countries and imposed their will on the inhabitants that already lived in said countries. Using the word 'built' is laughable. Did you forget that a large majority of the 'colonies' that the British empire built had to fight for their independence from the British government?


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    Kenyan Mau Mau suspects in a British detention camp in 1953
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    (Original post by Delilah234)
    The British invaded countries and imposed their will on the inhabitants that already lived in said countries. Using the word 'built' is laughable. Did you forget that a large majority of the 'colonies' that the British empire built had to fight for their independence from the British government?


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    Kenyan Mau Mau suspects in a British detention camp in 1953
    Mate all empires were bad. It's gone-we celebrate indpendence for all our former colonies but now loads of people who are PC and cultural leftists all hate it. All in favour of being in a cynical authoritarian, globalist project that denies us trade links with the world. Little England, as Hitchens says, is a nonsense, we have never been so reduced as we are now. We should take back responsibility for our country.
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    As I speak the FTSE 100 is stronger now than on the day before the referendum
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    Note to you.
    Spoiler:
    Show
    Once again, I am replying to you not because I want to reply to you but because there are international students on this forum namely from from rich, prosperous and safe countries in the Commonwealth who are planning to study in UK.

    These Commonwealth students respect the monarchy, speak English as their first language, respect the Common law, respect the rule of law and their ancestors fought alongside the British in two world wars to defend Queen and country.

    I think it's only right they are aware of things before they get a shock after they set foot at London Heathrow airport.

    So what then about some of the EU students?
    Spoiler:
    Show
    In recent weeks, we have seen several EU students on the Oxbridge and London unis threads in this forum say something to the effect that
    • they couldn't care less about Brexit
    • all they care about is receiving funding and loans so that they can pursue their studies in UK
    • their teachers have told them that UK's government are so slow to effect any change it would take forever to implement them
    So you must be wondering whats wrong with EU students wanting to study in UK? Well, a growing number of these EU students simply take up loans, one after another and then disappear after they've completed their studies without repaying the loans.

    The British government has to write off these debts. It's been reported several times and it's about time UK puts her foot down and prioritise UK students first.
    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/672...g-tuition-fees

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education...ing-loans.html

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education...pay-debts.html

    Kindly take note that I have taken screenshots of those replies of these selfish EU students and have emailed them to Oxford, Cambridge and the five london universities. Let these admission tutors know what is really happening on the ground. They are smart people and I am certain that in future, they will factor in this reality when deciding who to make offers to.

    (Original post by gladders)
    My problem is that a) the public were lied to by the Leave campaign, b) everything Remain warned is being proved true, and c) Parliament is sovereign and can save us from this stupidity.
    I have already told you multiple times before and I'm telling you again. Boris Johnson and the rest of his clueless squad will not commit political hara-kiri by setting aside the referendum result. Truth be told, they're waiting to see what Nigel Farage says so that they can parrot him. You know as well as I do that Boris and crew cannot think out policies on their own. They're part of the Westminster bubble, living in a world of their own.

    Read my previous posts even way before the referendum took place. I said this on several occasions.

    (Original post by gladders)
    Nah, not making it up. That's what Brexiters do. Seeing as Boris Johnson is already not respecting the result by talking about staying in the Single Market (and acknowledging this means free movement), tough buns to you.
    Would you believe me if I told you that Boris and Gove had thought it all before they decided to back the Vote Leave campaign? Many of the commentariat and several others on this forum were clearly politically illegitimate that they did not know that Cameron would have to vacate his place if he lost in the referendum.

    I chuckled when BBC kept running the news that 82 ministers had written a letter to him to tell him they would support his continued Premiership regardless or given the referendum result. Clearly the chaps must have read a different political textbook or ministerial code of regulations :eek:

    For those who're unaware, the BBC is part of the State whose role is to be the political mouthpiece of the Conservative government. To air programmes or conduct interviews that would put the Tory government in bad light is distasteful. This is not how a special relationship operates.

    Have you ever see any BBC presenter/interviewer hold any of the Tories to account on live tv? Precisely The way the BBC questions Farage and asks him all the important questions, you would think Farage was the Prime Minister of UK

    (Original post by gladders)
    Nah. Ignorant people won a glorified opinion poll. Parliament is what matters, and according to the great Tory Edmund Burke: "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."
    You are picking and choosing your sources selectively given that you now know the referendum result. Whatever you have done on this forum following the announcement that Brexit was achieved, is just typical of a sore loser.

    On Brexit, you and several others like you were wrong about the outcome. Live with it. The people have spoken. Respect it. You may have been agonizing over it as a result of the decision. Get over it.

    (Original post by gladders)
    Like I give a fig what the racist, ignorant, manipulative Farage says. I take more stock in the speech of Alan Smyth MEP.
    Farage is the original and has always been. The rest simply try to emulate and imitate him but end of the day, you know as well as I do that Farage is the real deal. Look at the way he speaks. Listen to what he says. If I had my german friends listen to him speak they would think he was the British Prime Minister :eek:
    Spoiler:
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    (Original post by jneill)
    The fact REMAINS Brexit hasn't been achieved. And if it does happen it will not be under the terms that most Leavers want.Posted from TSR Mobile
    Following the outcome of the referendum, you and several others here have lost all credibility. While 'the others' have disappeared to their quiet corners to reflect and rightly so, you have chosen to show up? What further use do you have on this forum? Do me a favour and stop quoting me. I certainly do not want to have anything to do with you.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    You seem knowledgable on economics. I voted leave and don't buy the economic arguments supposedly in our interest for remain. I look at the prosperity of Norway and Switzerland outside the EU. I look at southern Europe, and disastrous unemployment. I look at the colonies we built and our wealth built historically by links to the world. Then I look at the protectionism and red tape of the EU. Seemingly, and I don't know specifics on this, there is no ability to trade with China and India, as far as I can tell.
    It would seem pretty lamentable, given our history as a global trading nation, that tiny Iceland has a trade deal with China and we can't get one in the EU. India too. Maybe that is wrong but we seem to do sod all trade with them given the size of them.
    I fail to see any long term benefits from membership, and I hope nations like France proclaim independence. It seem like it was all about short term benefit for establishment, and also like the people who want corporate dictatorship(The EU would seem detrimental to smaller firms with it's legislation and bureacracy from what I gather) and moves towards global government(Jack Straw talks, somewhat chillingly about 'the post-democratic era' ). I only see more long term prosperity, better conditions for smaller British firms, better prices on goods, and a very healthy move towards liberty, democracy and against globalist tyranny. Or am I wrong?
    Norway is an oil based economy. It literally digs oil out of the ground and then flogs it. This is obviously an exaggeration, but there is a simple truth to it. The UK will never be a rich per capita as Norway as long as the world runs on oil.

    The Swiss economy is essentially based around banking for organised criminals, wealth management and tax evasion. These are very high margin industries, however what they don't do is provide jobs for normal people. The Swiss have also had their great banking heritage taken away from them by London (note that Credit Suisse and UBS base their operations in the UK) precisely because London has unfettered access to the common market.

    We are able to trade with India and China within the EU. However there are tariffs. However it is worth considering that although these countries are massive, the bulk of their populations are very very poor. Most Indians don't have access to an operating sewage system. The UK doesn't have anything to sell the bulk of the Indian populace. Who in India needs insurance when you haven't got a proper toilet? The UK enjoys excellent trade links with China, however this is based on the UK being part of the EU. The truth is that we don't have services to sell to the large mass of the Chinese population - who are very poor.

    One of the things that seems to be misunderstood is that the UK economy is set up around servicing middle class people. We make middle class car like Jags. We provide financial services for the middle class, like life assurance, car insurance, mortgages etc. The EU is the largest body of middle class people in the world (arguably more so than America given how unequal America is). The middle class Germans, Italians, French, Danes, Dutch are where the UK makes its money in the world. It doesn't make money selling tat to people who live in glorified shanty towns.

    The British have been masters of rigging the rules in the EU to our own benefit. The British civil service is masterful at gaining support from various nations to promote our interests - particularly the nations of Eastern Europe who have a deep cynicism of the Germans (who invaded them) and the French (who deserted them) and who have enormous respect for the UK (who saved them). This year the UK economy became bigger than the French economy, I have no doubt that the UK's ascension over France is in part due to how effective the UK is a getting trade deals it wants in the EU.
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    (Original post by Audrey18)
    For those who're unaware, the BBC is part of the State whose role is to be the political mouthpiece of the Conservative government. To air programmes or conduct interviews that would put the Tory government in bad light is distasteful. This is not how a special relationship operates.
    You think the BBC is in cahoots with the Conservative government?

    Ahhahhaaaaaaaahhhhhaaaaaa

    It's currently fighting for its life as a public service broadcaster against the government. There is absolutely no love lost between the BBC and the Tories. You really dont know that much about Britain at all.



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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    Norway is an oil based economy. It literally digs oil out of the ground and then flogs it. This is obviously an exaggeration, but there is a simple truth to it. The UK will never be a rich per capita as Norway as long as the world runs on oil.

    The Swiss economy is essentially based around banking for organised criminals, wealth management and tax evasion. These are very high margin industries, however what they don't do is provide jobs for normal people. The Swiss have also had their great banking heritage taken away from them by London (note that Credit Suisse and UBS base their operations in the UK) precisely because London has unfettered access to the common market.

    We are able to trade with India and China within the EU. However there are tariffs. However it is worth considering that although these countries are massive, the bulk of their populations are very very poor. Most Indians don't have access to an operating sewage system. The UK doesn't have anything to sell the bulk of the Indian populace. Who in India needs insurance when you haven't got a proper toilet? The UK enjoys excellent trade links with China, however this is based on the UK being part of the EU. The truth is that we don't have services to sell to the large mass of the Chinese population - who are very poor.

    One of the things that seems to be misunderstood is that the UK economy is set up around servicing middle class people. We make middle class car like Jags. We provide financial services for the middle class, like life assurance, car insurance, mortgages etc. The EU is the largest body of middle class people in the world (arguably more so than America given how unequal America is). The middle class Germans, Italians, French, Danes, Dutch are where the UK makes its money in the world. It doesn't make money selling tat to people who live in glorified shanty towns.

    The British have been masters of rigging the rules in the EU to our own benefit. The British civil service is masterful at gaining support from various nations to promote our interests - particularly the nations of Eastern Europe who have a deep cynicism of the Germans (who invaded them) and the French (who deserted them) and who have enormous respect for the UK (who saved them). This year the UK economy became bigger than the French economy, I have no doubt that the UK's ascension over France is in part due to how effective the UK is a getting trade deals it wants in the EU.
    I know about the source of Norway and Switzerland's wealth, but I still think they would be worse off in. And how will the EU reconcile Southern and Northern Europe, how will they restore any employment to youth in the south? It just seems like they keep imposing austerity and it's a neverending limbo. The likes of Italy and Spain were surely never that powerful as economies(apart from way back when Spain was a colonial power), but I recall going as in the 80's and 90's, when they had their own currencies, they surely never had unemployment like this. It seems like this could be healthy kick back against the impersonal forces of globalization wrecking so many lives. it's talked about like globalization is like the wind or the rain, just part of the world, but as stated in one article I read, surely it is about a series of policy decisions. Would you concede at all that people's instincts are healthy here against the oppressive status quo, in trying to precipitate reclaiming localised power. Are they not right to distrust those with a personal interest in globalism?

    Oh and re China and India, surely we can do lots more trade now, I get what you say re selling, but I'm thinking buying and getting better prices and goods, hence cheaper products on shelves or at least more wealth overall. What about bringing Africa in more, again for more competitive prices in buying?
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    We are able to trade with India and China within the EU. However there are tariffs. However it is worth considering that although these countries are massive, the bulk of their populations are very very poor. Most Indians don't have access to an operating sewage system. The UK doesn't have anything to sell the bulk of the Indian populace. Who in India needs insurance when you haven't got a proper toilet? The UK enjoys excellent trade links with China, however this is based on the UK being part of the EU. The truth is that we don't have services to sell to the large mass of the Chinese population - who are very poor.
    Britain swaps flats in London to rich Chinese and Indians for masses of industrial products made by poor Chinese. This is a pretty good deal, and will continue so long as London is a cool place to live and the British government has a reputation for not expropriating foreigners.

    One of the things that seems to be misunderstood is that the UK economy is set up around servicing middle class people. We make middle class car like Jags.
    The UK economy sets itself up, to do whatever is the most profitable thing for the least effort. If that changes, so will the set-up of the UK economy.
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    Hopefully this recovery will continue with the announcement that we are staying in the single-market. Because that's the only way it will, even if it p*sses off 70% of Leave voters.
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    (Original post by Delilah234)
    There are many different news sources to choose from and i'm sure that they aren't all 'driven by a biased agenda'.
    I know they all aren't. That's why I like listening to Peter Hitchens, or Max Keiser. He was just saying that the naive idealistic youth have been sold some progressive bs about remain when it's actually for the global order. But most of the debate is an unbelievably depressing and narrow load of group think from rich social/cultural and economic liberals telling us the only thing a sane person should think. There are dark forces in the world that want global governance, mass surveillance, corporate monopoly and kleptocracy. To me, the EU is just one step on the way to facilitating this, dressed up in cosmopolitanism and being the antidote to all the reactionary, bigoted little Englanders. What makes this situation we have of Blairism, NeoLiberalism, or whatever you want to call it, so pernicious is that it seems to have permanent claim to the moral high ground via it's cultural leftism, and it's economics which supposedly 'trickle' down and cause us to prosper, the opposition to which is met with hectoring cries and bullying, all of this opinion of course suits rich cosmopolitans with cultural leftist vies, surprise surprise. They do not see who suffers from the dehumanising impersonal forces of globalization, nor the real power players beneath it all or what is pernicious. People who consume it are often not nuanced enough to see that this is morally vacuous and untrustworthy. That a social conservative opinion, for example, held against the tide of power and the mainstream, maybe one you disagree with, but it may be held out of having some substance and a philosophy, as opposed to utter amorality. This orthodoxy is just that. Not immorality, just amorality and money ruling the day. As I just heard on a documentary the other day Neitzsche said 'Evil loves a void'. 'The path to Auschwitz was paved with indifference', well maybe it was paved with relative unquestioning comfort for many people too.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Britain swaps flats in London to rich Chinese and Indians for masses of industrial products made by poor Chinese. This is a pretty good deal, and will continue so long as London is a cool place to live and the British government has a reputation for not expropriating foreigners.
    That doesn't really create many jobs. And certainly not outside of London, which is where we need to create jobs.

    Oh - and I'm not so sure foreign people feel so comfortable in our country anymore...


    The UK economy sets itself up, to do whatever is the most profitable thing for the least effort. If that changes, so will the set-up of the UK economy.
    But our economy is already set up to serve the EU middle class market. It is very lucrative to carry on doing what we are doing. Any change would cause huge transitory costs in the short term as the economy changes and would probably make the economy less lucrative in the long run.
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    (Original post by SaucissonSecCy)
    Oh and re China and India, surely we can do lots more trade now, I get what you say re selling, but I'm thinking buying and getting better prices and goods, hence cheaper products on shelves or at least more wealth overall. What about bringing Africa in more, again for more competitive prices in buying?
    Africa! Are you having a laugh! It's a **** hole - they haven't even got water, let alone any money!
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    (Original post by Classical Liberal)
    That doesn't really create many jobs. And certainly not outside of London, which is where we need to create jobs.
    The employment rate is not related to trade.

    Oh - and I'm not so sure foreign people feel so comfortable in our country anymore...
    That looks manufactured to me. In a country of 65 million there will be racial abuse incidents every day. What the pro-Remain media has done is started reporting them.

    But our economy is already set up to serve the EU middle class market. It is very lucrative to carry on doing what we are doing. Any change would cause huge transitory costs in the short term as the economy changes and would probably make the economy less lucrative in the long run.
    Most of what we consume is produced internally and vice-versa. Changes in trade patterns would impose modest transition costs. That doesn't necessarily make it a good idea but if there are other issues at stake (like absorption into a European nationstate) then I do not consider them a major problem.
 
 
 
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