The Commons Bar Mk XIII - MHoC Chat Thread

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    Tim's in love with Tony.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    Tim's in love with Tony.
    No no, but he was. He said "it's like the Stone Roses. The early stuff was great"


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    John McDermott is currently giving a 'private' speech to a small number of Unite activists in London. I don't think he realises at least one of them is live streaming it onto Facebook. He's just predicted a snap election relatively soon Corbyn wins on Saturday and of course says he believes Labour can win.
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    What do people think of this?
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/uncategoriz...football-fans/

    My guess is it will end similarly to the case with foreign to decoders.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    John McDermott is currently giving a 'private' speech to a small number of Unite activists in London. I don't think he realises at least one of them is live streaming it onto Facebook. He's just predicted a snap election relatively soon Corbyn wins on Saturday and of course says he believes Labour can win.
    Is there a speech equivalent of the Booker Prize for Fiction? A snap election would be a disaster for Labour, possibly only avoided if there were electoral pacts with the Greens and Lib Dems, which i cannot see happening.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    John McDermott is currently giving a 'private' speech to a small number of Unite activists in London. I don't think he realises at least one of them is live streaming it onto Facebook. He's just predicted a snap election relatively soon Corbyn wins on Saturday and of course says he believes Labour can win.
    I'm not sure one can call it a snap election if it occurs in 3 or 4 months but i'd support it given what would happen when you put a republican who does'nt support the union up in a live TV debate.

    That said i've always wondered why people expect the election before article 50 rather than after it. It seems much more logical to engage, get the agreement and then before the actual exit date hold an election to ratify it with the electorate so to speak.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    John McDermott is currently giving a 'private' speech to a small number of Unite activists in London. I don't think he realises at least one of them is live streaming it onto Facebook. He's just predicted a snap election relatively soon Corbyn wins on Saturday and of course says he believes Labour can win.
    And?

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I'm not sure one can call it a snap election if it occurs in 3 or 4 months but i'd support it given what would happen when you put a republican who does'nt support the union up in a live TV debate.

    That said i've always wondered why people expect the election before article 50 rather than after it. It seems much more logical to engage, get the agreement and then before the actual exit date hold an election to ratify it with the electorate so to speak.
    Heck of a gamble if you link the two, that assumes the UK gets a good deal or at least something marketable. Surely a great way to destroy UKIP though as they must vote Tory to genuinely leave. I wouldnt risk that, not May's fault if the UK gets nothing, she shouldn't suffer at the GE because of it.

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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    Heck of a gamble if you link the two, that assumes the UK gets a good deal or at least something marketable. Surely a great way to destroy UKIP though as they must vote Tory to genuinely leave. I wouldnt risk that, not May's fault if the UK gets nothing, she shouldn't suffer at the GE because of it.

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    It seems unlikely that we won't get something marketable though, Europe will act in its economic interest once all the posturing is said and done.

    Sounds to me like we're going for the Canada option.
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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    Heck of a gamble if you link the two, that assumes the UK gets a good deal or at least something marketable. Surely a great way to destroy UKIP though as they must vote Tory to genuinely leave. I wouldnt risk that, not May's fault if the UK gets nothing, she shouldn't suffer at the GE because of it.

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    She won't suffer though, if anything a less than perfect deal is better for the Tories.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    It seems unlikely that we won't get something marketable though, Europe will act in its economic interest once all the posturing is said and done.

    Sounds to me like we're going for the Canada option.
    You've got to remember two things though:

    1) It's not a two-player game. Europe's economic interest includes things like the political implications on deals with the likes of Switzerland (which had a referendum calling for limitation of free movement, which the EU is basically pissing on atm) and Canada (which might feel that it can get more for its side of the bargain).
    2) Every single EU member state has to ratify it, and leaders of many Eastern European states have stated they would flat-out reject a 'single market but no free movement' deal.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    It seems unlikely that we won't get something marketable though, Europe will act in its economic interest once all the posturing is said and done.

    Sounds to me like we're going for the Canada option.
    Canada option being what? No EFTA/EEC access but a separate trade agreement (with EU, or individual nations?) but with government decision on borders and all EU regulations?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    She won't suffer though, if anything a less than perfect deal is better for the Tories.
    To retain the Europhilic Tories? So May can offer some hope of a review of their EU stance or something?

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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    To retain the Europhilic Tories? So May can offer some hope of a review of their EU stance or something?

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    No, because it will make people think things will be worse for longer putting them off Labour even more for even longer.
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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    Canada option being what? No EFTA/EEC access but a separate trade agreement (with EU, or individual nations?) but with government decision on borders and all EU regulations?

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    Yes, they also have financial equivalence for London.

    That's not how i think both sides will go into it publicly but i think Canada with some icing on the cake is how we'll end up.

    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    You've got to remember two things though:

    1) It's not a two-player game. Europe's economic interest includes things like the political implications on deals with the likes of Switzerland (which had a referendum calling for limitation of free movement, which the EU is basically pissing on atm) and Canada (which might feel that it can get more for its side of the bargain).
    2) Every single EU member state has to ratify it, and leaders of many Eastern European states have stated they would flat-out reject a 'single market but no free movement' deal.
    The argument with Switzerland is that their full access is contingent on the free movement, Switzerland wants one but not both. The UK on the other hand may not even go into negotiations seriously wanting to be in the single market.

    The second point is more apt i feel but as mostly happens in Europe, the others will do as France and Germany tell them.
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    Hearing rumours Seumas Milne has been fired/otherwise "allowed to leave" by Corbyn. That gives me some hope!
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    It's hilarious seeing all the Clintomanicacs sharing stories basically reading "Democrat says Bush voting Democrat" as proof Trump is going to lose.
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    With regards to the EU earlier i'd also add that the problem the non-Tory parties have with a hard Brexit is that Tory voters (whether Leave or Remain) also seem to anecdotally (probably objectively if you can find such polling) put the economy as a much higher priority than anything else. This means that even if we have a hard Brexit, Remain Tories are still much more likely to care about lower taxes and the general performance of the economy than the kind of emotional fixation that Londoners have.
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    Today, being the UN's international day of peace; I think we should remember,

    Although peace in itself is wonderful, peace is not always the best option. And sometimes, we might need to disrupt the peace to gain liberty and justice, as sometimes disrupting the peace to get this is fundamentally necessary.

    To quote Mrs Thatcher 'Everyone talked about peace as if that in itself were the sole aim. But peace is not enough without freedom and justice, and sometimes... it was necessary to sacrifice peace if freedom and justice were to prevail.'
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    Time for a cuppa. Cricket is interesting today as to who will be County Champions. Yorkshire third in a row looking less likely.
 
 
 
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