The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Rakas21
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#8001
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#8001
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
And the same thing in Scotland hadn't already done that?
Exactly.
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Green_Pink
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#8002
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#8002
(Original post by Rakas21)
Apparently there are some skeptics calling for a second referendum on the EU if we vote to stay.

If they were trying to vindicate my position that referenda should not be used to settle important issues then they are doing a good job.
What, why?? :confused:
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Rakas21
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#8003
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#8003
(Original post by Green_Pink)
What, why?? :confused:
Like in Scotland, they think that if the EU changes are cosmetic then they can ask the question again.
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Green_Pink
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#8004
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#8004
(Original post by Rakas21)
Like in Scotland, they think that if the EU changes are cosmetic then they can ask the question again.
Even though Cameron is carrying out negotiations on any such changes before holding the referendum?
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Jammy Duel
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#8005
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#8005
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Even though Cameron is carrying out negotiations on any such changes before holding the referendum?
Except he won't achieve anything because changes in the EU require unanimous support. The Poles have already said no to the benefits changes, the French aren't exactly being the most accepting at the moment either. Eastern Europe will stop anything meaningfully happening.
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Green_Pink
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#8006
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#8006
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Except he won't achieve anything because changes in the EU require unanimous support. The Poles have already said no to the benefits changes, the French aren't exactly being the most accepting at the moment either. Eastern Europe will stop anything meaningfully happening.
Well yes, exactly, and that's not going to change with a second referendum. The first one will be in or out with only cosmetic changes at most and the public will vote based on that, it's not even like Scotland which was promised reforms it has yet to receive.
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Rakas21
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#8007
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#8007
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Even though Cameron is carrying out negotiations on any such changes before holding the referendum?
Indeed.

Basically some people think that if Cameron gets nothing substantial then people may vote to stay because at least Europe gave them something, but afterward some skeptics seem to think that they can convince people it's nothing and create a neverendum requiring a second question.

..

Personally i believe in representative party democracy. Join a bloody party, elect a Euro-skeptic leader and if they are elected then just leave. Shinzo Abe is a good model to follow on his sales tax rise, he put it into law and then called an election saying 'vote for me and this will be enacted, vote for my opponent and it will be repealed'. The UK could easily engage article 50, set a date for the treaty to take effect and beforehand hold an election.
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St. Brynjar
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#8008
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#8008
imo Cameron's being pretty clever with the EU referendum so far. He's doing pretty much everything to appease Ukip - not allowing non-UK EU nationals to vote etc. - so that when the result comes in it'll be pretty irrefutable. Can really see him scoring a home run, if Cameron gets a tiny bit of wiggle room he'll be able to spin it as a triumphant victory. Everyone expects the Tories to split over this, something tells me it'll be another Labour own-goal unfortunately.
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Rakas21
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#8009
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#8009
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Except he won't achieve anything because changes in the EU require unanimous support. The Poles have already said no to the benefits changes, the French aren't exactly being the most accepting at the moment either. Eastern Europe will stop anything meaningfully happening.
Eastern Europe will agree, Germany has gotten them into line on everything else.

The big problems are France, Spain (if the incumbent government gets kicked out) and Italy. Right now the French and Italians believe in a much more leftist EU than Germany, Austria and the Netherlands who in the council and to a lesser degree the parliament are supported by the Tories. Hence, the French and Italians may not be so bothered if the UK leaves.

I expect a few bones (no treaty change) but even if i vote Out (undecided) i still can't see anything other than an In vote.
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Green_Pink
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#8010
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#8010
(Original post by Rakas21)
Indeed.

Basically some people think that if Cameron gets nothing substantial then people may vote to stay because at least Europe gave them something, but afterward some skeptics seem to think that they can convince people it's nothing and create a neverendum requiring a second question.

..

Personally i believe in representative party democracy. Join a bloody party, elect a Euro-skeptic leader and if they are elected then just leave. Shinzo Abe is a good model to follow on his sales tax rise, he put it into law and then called an election saying 'vote for me and this will be enacted, vote for my opponent and it will be repealed'. The UK could easily engage article 50, set a date for the treaty to take effect and beforehand hold an election.
I'm increasingly attracted to this point of view to be honest, but it does have problems as well especially in first past the post where if the two biggest parties agree on something it's exceptionally difficult to elect a third party to change it regardless of public opinion, and conversely as we are seeing now unpopular policies such as legalising fox hunting can potentially be implemented by a party with less the a quarter of the eligible vote who didn't even put it in their manifesto. I think my preferred solution would likely be a more proportional voting system, compulsory voting (although probably with a "none of the above" box added) and a constitutional limitation of one referendum per Parliamentary term (so we don't get them on everything and if something is rejected people must at least vote for a government that wants to repeat it when it may reflect real change in public opinion, rather than the existing one just going again).
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Saracen's Fez
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#8011
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#8011
(Original post by Rakas21)
Eastern Europe will agree, Germany has gotten them into line on everything else.

The big problems are France, Spain (if the incumbent government gets kicked out) and Italy. Right now the French and Italians believe in a much more leftist EU than Germany, Austria and the Netherlands who in the council and to a lesser degree the parliament are supported by the Tories. Hence, the French and Italians may not be so bothered if the UK leaves.

I expect a few bones (no treaty change) but even if i vote Out (undecided) i still can't see anything other than an In vote.
We could have a Germanic Union then alongside Germany, Austria, the Benelux and Scandinavia should the EU ever collapse.
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Rakas21
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#8012
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#8012
(Original post by St. Brynjar)
imo Cameron's being pretty clever with the EU referendum so far. He's doing pretty much everything to appease Ukip - not allowing non-UK EU nationals to vote etc. - so that when the result comes in it'll be pretty irrefutable. Can really see him scoring a home run, if Cameron gets a tiny bit of wiggle room he'll be able to spin it as a triumphant victory. Everyone expects the Tories to split over this, something tells me it'll be another Labour own-goal unfortunately.
I've never really though of Labour? What do you mean.

I do fear that the Tories will stop being civil to each other once the campaign starts proper and we could destroy our re-election chances but it all depends on how many people accept the result whichever way it goes.
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St. Brynjar
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#8013
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#8013
(Original post by Rakas21)
I've never really though of Labour? What do you mean.

I do fear that the Tories will stop being civil to each other once the campaign starts proper and we could destroy our re-election chances but it all depends on how many people accept the result whichever way it goes.
Ukip hurt Labour far more than the Tories this election. Whatever happens, this debate will be seen as Cameron vs. Farage. So it'll be a case of Labour supporting the Tories and potentially looking weak, alienating the Blue Labourites & SNP voters. I just can't see Labour coming out of this campaign victorious, so I'd like the referendum to happen as soon as possible.
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St. Brynjar
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#8014
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#8014
(Original post by Rakas21)
I do fear that the Tories will stop being civil to each other once the campaign starts proper and we could destroy our re-election chances but it all depends on how many people accept the result whichever way it goes.
I really don't think it'll be close. Look at the last 4 major polls in the UK - the EU elections, the 2015 general, the Scottish referendum and the AV referendum. All were won on fearful campaigns to keep the status quo. The Tories can afford to relax the whips a little.
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Rakas21
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#8015
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#8015
(Original post by Green_Pink)
I'm increasingly attracted to this point of view to be honest, but it does have problems as well especially in first past the post where if the two biggest parties agree on something it's exceptionally difficult to elect a third party to change it regardless of public opinion, and conversely as we are seeing now unpopular policies such as legalising fox hunting can potentially be implemented by a party with less the a quarter of the eligible vote who didn't even put it in their manifesto. I think my preferred solution would likely be a more proportional voting system, compulsory voting (although probably with a "none of the above" box added) and a constitutional limitation of one referendum per Parliamentary term (so we don't get them on everything and if something is rejected people must at least vote for a government that wants to repeat it when it may reflect real change in public opinion, rather than the existing one just going again).
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
We could have a Germanic Union then alongside Germany, Austria, the Benelux and Scandinavia should the EU ever collapse.
The EU will probably never collapse, though it will shed weight. In 50 years i expect it to breaching into North Africa.

I'd love that. As somebody open to a Federal Europe (though the UK will never join the current version) my second preference to the Anglosphere would be UK-France-Germany (and include the Swiss, Netherlands, Austria and Scandinavia if they want).
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Saracen's Fez
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#8016
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#8016
(Original post by St. Brynjar)
Ukip hurt Labour far more than the Tories this election. Whatever happens, this debate will be seen as Cameron vs. Farage. So it'll be a case of Labour supporting the Tories and potentially looking weak, alienating the Blue Labourites & SNP voters. I just can't see Labour coming out of this campaign victorious, so I'd like the referendum to happen as soon as possible.
I doubt Labour supporting EU membership would alienate the SNP voters, nor the Blue Labourites. Blair was enormously pro-EU.
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Rakas21
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#8017
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#8017
(Original post by St. Brynjar)
Ukip hurt Labour far more than the Tories this election. Whatever happens, this debate will be seen as Cameron vs. Farage. So it'll be a case of Labour supporting the Tories and potentially looking weak, alienating the Blue Labourites & SNP voters. I just can't see Labour coming out of this campaign victorious, so I'd like the referendum to happen as soon as possible.
It will be interesting to see if Farage is aloud to lead the campaign since the Out campaign given that the government would be conducting exit negotiations if they won (not the Out campaign) and he's not even in parliament. I suspect a back bench Tory will lead it (certainly strange probably seeing Tory vs Tory).

(Original post by St. Brynjar)
I really don't think it'll be close. Look at the last 4 major polls in the UK - the EU elections, the 2015 general, the Scottish referendum and the AV referendum. All were won on fearful campaigns to keep the status quo. The Tories can afford to relax the whips a little.
That's true and i expect an In vote as well. Since 79 it's incredible how few times the British people have voted for change.
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United1892
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#8018
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#8018
(Original post by St. Brynjar)
Ukip hurt Labour far more than the Tories this election. Whatever happens, this debate will be seen as Cameron vs. Farage. So it'll be a case of Labour supporting the Tories and potentially looking weak, alienating the Blue Labourites & SNP voters. I just can't see Labour coming out of this campaign victorious, so I'd like the referendum to happen as soon as possible.
Supporting the EU is more likely to alienate those to the left of the party as some socialists dislike the EU. Also the EU is extremely well supported by centrist politicians (right of Labour).
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St. Brynjar
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#8019
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#8019
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
I doubt Labour supporting EU membership would alienate the SNP voters, nor the Blue Labourites. Blair was enormously pro-EU.
For a lot of folks north of the border, the mere sight of Labour sharing a stage with the Tories is sickening and drove them to the SNP in the first place. Thing is, if Labour run their own separate campaign, it'll get nowhere near the coverage of Cameron's one. I can't see any way for Labour to win in this situation.

(Original post by Rakas21)
It will be interesting to see if Farage is aloud to lead the campaign since the Out campaign given that the government would be conducting exit negotiations if they won (not the Out campaign) and he's not even in parliament. I suspect a back bench Tory will lead it (certainly strange probably seeing Tory vs Tory).

That's true and i expect an In vote as well. Since 79 it's incredible how few times the British people have voted for change.
I think even the eurosceptic Tories realise that Farage has by far and away the best chance of running such a campaign, and even if he isn't selected as the leader, he'll still dominate the headlines. If I were a eurosceptic I'd do all I could to get Carswell leading the thing, but since he doesn't exactly see eye to eye with Nige on a number of issues it's not exactly likely.

Who would you suggest lead the out campaign? Someone like Peter Bone?

(Original post by Markt1998)
Supporting the EU is more likely to alienate those to the left of the party as some socialists dislike the EU. Also the EU is extremely well supported by centrist politicians (right of Labour).
I think the hardcore socialist vote is pretty slim. Even the Greens support staying in the EU!
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United1892
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#8020
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#8020
(Original post by St. Brynjar)
For a lot of folks north of the border, the mere sight of Labour sharing a stage with the Tories is sickening and drove them to the SNP in the first place. Thing is, if Labour run their own separate campaign, it'll get nowhere near the coverage of Cameron's one. I can't see any way for Labour to win in this situation.



I think even the eurosceptic Tories realise that Farage has by far and away the best chance of running such a campaign, and even if he isn't selected as the leader, he'll still dominate the headlines. If I were a eurosceptic I'd do all I could to get Carswell leading the thing, but since he doesn't exactly see eye to eye with Nige on a number of issues it's not exactly likely.

Who would you suggest lead the out campaign? Someone like Peter Bone?



I think the hardcore socialist vote is pretty slim. Even the Greens support staying in the EU!
Admitadely its not an overly large faction anymore but they are certainly more likely to be upset by it than the blue labour section of the party.
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