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    (Original post by banterboy)
    decent counter example except ukip are preying on left wing votes.

    Also, if you dont know members of momentum (my mums ones god help me) you dont understand the level of obsession
    but they also got some, a great many even from the right.

    All people like something or someone tangible to gather round and support their beliefs. It certainly isn't just a left wing thing. Maybe more obvious in socialists because they are fighting against the tide of popular opinion.

    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I wouldn't be surprised if Aph is momentum and just doesn't realise how bad it is in his delusion.

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    I'm not and probably never will be a RL labour supporter.
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    (Original post by Aph)
    but they also got some, a great many even from the right.

    All people like something or someone tangible to gather round and support their beliefs. It certainly isn't just a left wing thing. Maybe more obvious in socialists because they are fighting against the tide of popular opinion.


    I'm not and probably never will be a RL labour supporter.
    true but netherless what farage gets is nothing like what Corbyn gets
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    (Original post by banterboy)
    true but netherless what farage gets is nothing like what Corbyn gets
    Not sure. Farrage has probably died down but he used to have a much bigger cult following.
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    https://www.buzzfeed.com/josephberns...JM#.nmxP9jMJKW

    probably the best buzzfeed article there is, just so much glorious vitriol in it.
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    Just given blood. As a blood donor, not some strange rite to prove eligibility to vote.
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    buzzfeed is the wests answer to isis
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    Something that's been under the radar today are the Irish economic performance figures. Irish GDP growth has been revised such that between 2014-2015, it was 26.3% (not a typo). :rofl: Almost all of it stems from the treatment of tax inversions from US multinationals and deals by irish domiciled aircraft leasing firms.

    Of note, the same data showed that after such stellar statistical performance, Irish GDP fell by 2.1% in the first quarter so it'll only take another contraction in Q2 for the Irish economy to technically be in recession.
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    Talk of a near half and half gender cabinet, if this smells quotaish at all and the rumours of Osborne in foreign are true then I might start seriously regretting maintaining my membership for another year.

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    Latest ICM puts the Tories 8% ahead with fieldwork done over the weekend.

    If this is what an EU referendum and leadership election do then i'd suggest we should probably be more optimistic than we are for 2020.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Latest ICM puts the Tories 8% ahead with fieldwork done over the weekend.

    If this is what an EU referendum and leadership election do then i'd suggest we should probably be more optimistic than we are for 2020.
    We have the negotiations to drag that back down, and the turmoil in labour ending, or at least simmering down a bit, 2020 is a long way away.

    Saying that, I never expected 2015 or the referendum to go so well and I tended to be a bit more optimistic there than most.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Talk of a near half and half gender cabinet, if this smells quotaish at all and the rumours of Osborne in foreign are true then I might start seriously regretting maintaining my membership for another year.

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    I was hearing Osbourne is more likely to get the boot completely, with Greyling at home and Hammond as chancellor and a brexiter as foreign.
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    So according to Robert Peston, the vote about whether or not Corbyn was automatically on the ballot was the last item on the meeting agenda. Corbyn and his allies subsequently left the meeting to brief the media, at which point the NEC continued the meeting and voted on these new leadership election rules about new members being excluded and the registered supporter fee being set at £25.

    Wow. Don't think this will be the last we hear about this.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Talk of a near half and half gender cabinet, if this smells quotaish at all and the rumours of Osborne in foreign are true then I might start seriously regretting maintaining my membership for another year.

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    why are you disapointed in osbourne in foreign?
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    labour shoudln't even bother trying to oust corbyn just to replace him with eagle. In any candidate that would get voted in by the current rabid membership has to be positioned on the left to appease them. So Labour cannot, mathematically, win the next election. Chucka Ummana is waiting for the left to learn their lesson (again) before he comes in 2020 and then he might, depending on the level of labours devastation in 2020 (possibly Corbyn/leftwing cadidate wins back scotland?) has a chance of winning in 2025.
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    (Original post by banterboy)
    why are you disapointed in osbourne in foreign?
    Because he's an incompetent that has spent the last 6 months losing the little credibility he had left while campaigning to remain in the EU, not the sort of person you want in a major position for dealing with the EU.

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    (Original post by cBay)
    So according to Robert Peston, the vote about whether or not Corbyn was automatically on the ballot was the last item on the meeting agenda. Corbyn and his allies subsequently left the meeting to brief the media, at which point the NEC continued the meeting and voted on these new leadership election rules about new members being excluded and the registered supporter fee being set at £25.

    Wow. Don't think this will be the last we hear about this.
    It won't really solve the entryism problem, Labour are already the most expensive party to join. If they want to solve the problem they need to implement rules like the Tories have to make it literally impossible unless you can preempt the leadership battle.

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    I've been running a kind of rolling comparison on ICM to this stage in the last parliament (2011) to see how Corbyn is doing vs Miliband..

    (Figure next to the month is the Tory lead in ICM for Guardian polls)

    Jan 11: -4 ..... *Jan 16: +5

    Feb 11: -3....... Feb*16: +7

    Mar 11: +1.......Mat 16: 0

    Apr 11: -2...... Apr 16: +5

    May 11: -1 ..... May 16: +2 (selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jun 11: -2 ..... Jun 16: +1**(selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jul 11: +1 .... Jul 16: +8

    For those who think Labour may actually win*i thought i'd point out that bar March (budget), the Tories have outperformed their lead in the previous parliament by at least 3% in every month this year.**

    To put it more simply, this trend if persisting would see the Tories win 2020 by around 10% of the vote (a universal swing would produce a Tory majority of 38).
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I've been running a kind of rolling comparison on ICM to this stage in the last parliament (2011) to see how Corbyn is doing vs Miliband..

    (Figure next to the month is the Tory lead in ICM for Guardian polls)

    Jan 11: -4 ..... *Jan 16: +5

    Feb 11: -3....... Feb*16: +7

    Mar 11: +1.......Mat 16: 0

    Apr 11: -2...... Apr 16: +5

    May 11: -1 ..... May 16: +2 (selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jun 11: -2 ..... Jun 16: +1**(selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jul 11: +1 .... Jul 16: +8

    For those who think Labour may actually win*i thought i'd point out that bar March (budget), the Tories have outperformed their lead in the previous parliament by at least 3% in every month this year.**

    To put it more simply, this trend if persisting would see the Tories win 2020 by around 10% of the vote (a universal swing would produce a Tory majority of 38).
    Electoral calculus makes it a 60 majority, before factoring in boundary changes and the reduced seat count.

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    Frankly, I'd rather lose the election, back a leader who represents the Labour members and see a rebuilding process than be intimidated into backing a so called "unity" candidate. I think the £25 vote will disappear because Corbyn will win anyway but it shows the disgust for the average Labour voter among some Blairities within the PLP.*
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I've been running a kind of rolling comparison on ICM to this stage in the last parliament (2011) to see how Corbyn is doing vs Miliband..

    (Figure next to the month is the Tory lead in ICM for Guardian polls)

    Jan 11: -4 ..... *Jan 16: +5

    Feb 11: -3....... Feb*16: +7

    Mar 11: +1.......Mat 16: 0

    Apr 11: -2...... Apr 16: +5

    May 11: -1 ..... May 16: +2 (selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jun 11: -2 ..... Jun 16: +1**(selected smallest Tory lead frum multiple ICM polls)

    Jul 11: +1 .... Jul 16: +8

    For those who think Labour may actually win*i thought i'd point out that bar March (budget), the Tories have outperformed their lead in the previous parliament by at least 3% in every month this year.**

    To put it more simply, this trend if persisting would see the Tories win 2020 by around 10% of the vote (a universal swing would produce a Tory majority of 38).
    I still think opinion polling is pretty useless until campaign season when a) people start actually paying attention to politics, and b) the party's actually set out what their vision is for the next 5 years.

    Labour were ahead in the polls throughout the 2010-2015 parliament but had a calamitous election campaign where Miliband failed to set out what he intended to achieve as Prime Minister and how he was going to do it.
 
 
 
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