Is Scottish independence a 'good or bad' thing? Watch

Poll: Should Scotland be an independent country?
YES (299)
32.12%
NO (632)
67.88%
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flugelr
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#8641
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#8641
(Original post by Stalin)
Is it all necessary, though?

Scotland, if independent, could be somewhat comparable to Ireland in terms of population, size, geography, historical and present ties, et cetera. But which country has attempted to invade Ireland in the modern era and why would they?

Besides, if an independent Scotland was invaded, the invasion itself would pose too much of a threat to the rUK that it could never take place.
Whether having fighter jets and so on would be necessary isn't the point I was making. I was pointing out that the SNP's White Paper is a load of rubbish.

However, I do think it would be necessary to have a strong defence force. The northern sea lanes and Greenland-Iceland-UK (GIUK) Gap are literally on our doorstep, the RAF are scrambled about twice a month to intercept Russian military aircraft heading for UK airspace and we would need robust counter-terrorist defences to protect our Oil & Gas infrastructure. All of these tasks are currently undertaken by the British Armed Forces.

(Original post by Boab)
Your costs for setting up are based on the rUKs basis which is hugely wasteful
Well what do you think it would cost? Even if the costs I gave were halfed we would still be unable to afford the kind of force set out in the White Paper.

(Original post by Boab)
and do not take into account the adaptability of facilities
I do take that into account. Tell me, what facility would you adapt into a armoured training school? How much would it cost? Where would the ranges be? Where would the training area be? How would a Scottish Government conduct maintenance for the vehicles? How much would the simulators cost?

(Original post by Boab)
and the fact that a Scottish Defence force need not necessarily form 100% strength from the get go.
I've been working from the White Paper, which assumes that and 'SDF' wouldn't start at full strength.

As I said in my original post:
(Original post by flugelr)
Scotland will end up paying rUK to train Scottish military personnel as we won't have the necessary facilities.
That is a fact. Even the SNP admit, on page 241 of the White Paper, that Scotland would have to do this.
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Boab
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#8642
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#8642
This, this is, toooooo, good!

Spot the difference?

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Cryptographic
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#8643
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#8643
(Original post by Boab)
This, this is, toooooo, good!

Spot the difference?

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When one has to refer to a paper of that calibre, one is desperate.
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Boab
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#8644
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#8644
(Original post by Cryptographic)
When one has to refer to a paper of that calibre, one is desperate.
It's not desperate, just funny!
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Cryptographic
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#8645
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#8645
(Original post by Boab)
It's not desperate, just funny!
TBH I would be surprised if that paper got the date right the majority of the time.
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Quady
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#8646
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#8646
(Original post by Boab)
This, this is, toooooo, good!

Spot the difference?

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Yup.

Not mutually exclusive are they?
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MatureStudent36
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#8647
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#8647
(Original post by Boab)
This, this is, toooooo, good!

Spot the difference?

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Yes. Option 1 is pensions is a mess. Option 2 is pensions will be even more if a mess in the event of a yes vote.
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Boab
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#8648
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#8648
And this is the guy they have sent to warn us about it!

http://archive.today/oNg3n

The YES Scotland team are rubbing their hands at these gifts.
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sauzee_4
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#8649
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#8649
(Original post by Cryptographic)
Yes, I am just pointing out that there is little/no economic case for independence, however the SNP have offered policies which will cost massive amounts (e.g. free nurseries (which they may already do)) which will increase the deficit even more. This alongside starting the decline of the three major parts of the Scottish economy. (Financial-> rUK, Oil-> declining revenues/reserves, Whisky-> atleast short term increased currency conversion costs.)

However I wouldn't be surprised if after (half) a decade the deficit was doubled.
We've paid £64 billion more into the UK than we've received back out over the last 30 years, Trident will cost us millions to replace and the UK are spending another few hundred million on fighter jets that we wouldnt need post-independence so those things would free up some cash surely?

Opportunities to adjust the tax system to suit ourselves would surely help businesses here and Standard and Poors have said we'll have a Triple A credit rating compared to the UK's Double A rating, I think there's a great economic case for independence.

Most of the impartial, qualified commentators on the topic have said Scotland can be a thriving independent country (Standard and Poor's being one).

To take your Free Nurseries point, if you didn't think we can afford it quite entitled to vote the SNP out post-Yes, it's not as if free child-care is mandatory for independent countries!

I'm not sure why you think those three industries will decline post-independence?

The oil is declining yes but our GDP per capita is the same as the UK's even without the oil, and becoming independent allows us to invest in renewable energy and keep the proceeds (something we couldn't do within the Union). Scotland harbours 1/4 of Europes Wind and Tidal energy, this could be worth billions to us forever ahmen.

The financial industry.. Again not sure why you think this will decline? Bearing in mind none of the financial institutions have said they would leave (yes including Standard Life and RBS).

And Whisky transaction costs, we already export to various countries around the world, incurring transaction costs along the way so what would change. There may be transaction costs to export to rUK but that's only in the event of no currency union (unlikely).
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sauzee_4
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#8650
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#8650
Are people going to vote No because they might not get 60 odd quid off the state pension when they retire?

Seems silly, most people are advised, rightly so, to have a private pension plan that they can use on retirement.
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Good bloke
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#8651
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#8651
(Original post by sauzee_4)
Standard and Poors have said we'll have a Triple A credit rating compared to the UK's Double A rating
You've been reading too much SNP propaganda. They've said no such thing. And three of the seven main credit rating agencies rate the UK as AAA.
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Cryptographic
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#8652
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(Original post by sauzee_4)
We've paid £64 billion more into the UK than we've received back out over the last 30 years, [Citation needed] Trident will cost us millions to replace and the UK are spending another few hundred million on fighter jets that we wouldnt need post-independence so those things would free up some cash surely? [No, in fact you will have to pay for more than this. See the last page or two. You will have to pay for lots of setting up costs for the SDF.]

Opportunities to adjust the tax system to suit ourselves would surely help businesses here and Standard and Poors have said we'll have a Triple A credit rating [Citation needed also Fitch said that Scotland would have a worse credit rating.]compared to the UK's Double A rating, I think there's a great economic case for independence. [Not anymore]

Most of the impartial, qualified commentators on the topic have said Scotland can be a thriving independent country (Standard and Poor's being one) [Citation needed].

To take your Free Nurseries point, if you didn't think we can afford it quite entitled to vote the SNP out post-Yes, it's not as if free child-care is mandatory for independent countries!

I'm not sure why you think those three industries will decline post-independence?
Finance -> Moves lots of their Business to rUK where the economy will be more stable short-term. (See Standard Life)
Oil -> Less oil = less revenues.
Whisky -> Lots of the whisky is shipped/sold in UK, there will be import tax, declining profit. Declining taxable profit. declining tax revenues.
These three industries are the main parts of Scotland's economy.


The oil is declining yes but our GDP per capita is the same as the UK's even without the oil, and becoming independent allows us to invest in renewable energy and keep the proceeds (something we couldn't do within the Union). [Barnet formula gives it back] Scotland harbours 1/4 of Europes Wind and Tidal energy, this could be worth billions to us forever ahmen.

The financial industry.. Again not sure why you think this will decline? Bearing in mind none of the financial institutions have said they would leave (yes including Standard Life and RBS). [One word. Stability. Financial institutions are averse to risk, all the uncertainty, between winning the vote and independence will give the companies time to move south of the border, where they know what currency they will be using. Also I think that an EU law forces financial institutions to be based in the country where they do the majority of their business.]

And Whisky transaction costs, we already export to various countries around the world, incurring transaction costs along the way so what would change. There may be transaction costs to export to rUK but that's only in the event of no currency union (unlikely).[Why unlikely? The British electorate is firmly against the currency union, and opposition is rising, this would be political suicide to reverse on. Also there will be import taxes, even if there is a currency union.]
...
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Mackay
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#8653
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#8653
The problem that NO-campaigners faced is actually getting voters through the door to vote. Many won't be bothered I expect.
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sauzee_4
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#8654
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#8654
(Original post by Good bloke)
You've been reading too much SNP propaganda. They've said no such thing. And three of the seven main credit rating agencies rate the UK as AAA.
'Even excluding North Sea output, and calculating per capita GDP only by looking only at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment.'

Direct quote from the report
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Good bloke
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#8655
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#8655
(Original post by sauzee_4)
Seems silly, most people are advised, rightly so, to have a private pension plan that they can use on retirement.
And most people don't have such a plan. Fewer than 40% working age people are currently accruing a non-state pension.
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Cryptographic
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#8656
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#8656
(Original post by sauzee_4)
'Even excluding North Sea output, and calculating per capita GDP only by looking only at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment.'

Direct quote from the report
Please add link.
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flugelr
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#8657
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#8657
(Original post by sauzee_4)
We've paid £64 billion more into the UK than we've received back out over the last 30 years
The thing is, we have got that money back. It is spent on things that do benefit us like our international embassy network, national infrastructure projects and providing money in grants to less well-off parts of the country.

Ask the same question, in a different context; How much more has Aberdeen paid into Scotland than it's got back? Should Aberdeen become independent?

That is how taxation works. If you put £1 in and got £1 back then what would be the point? We'd end up in a society with a few mega-rich villages who pay for their own services and security, surrounded by areas of griding poverty.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
Trident will cost us millions to replace and the UK are spending another few hundred million on fighter jets that we wouldnt need post-independence so those things would free up some cash surely?
The majority of money in those projects goes on Research and Development, so no we wouldn't save much cash.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
Opportunities to adjust the tax system to suit ourselves would surely help businesses here
We can do that under devolution.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
Standard and Poors have said we'll have a Triple A credit rating compared to the UK's Double A rating, I think there's a great economic case for independence.
Actually Standard & Poors didn't say that. They said that Scotland would struggle to match the UK’s AAA credit.

The UK actually does have a Triple A Credit Rating.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
Most of the impartial, qualified commentators on the topic have said Scotland can be a thriving independent country (Standard and Poor's being one).
Of course Scotland could do well as an independent country, but the argument made by Unionists is that we can have a thriving Scotland as part of the wider UK. This gives us the best of both worlds.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
The oil is declining yes but our GDP per capita is the same as the UK's even without the oil, and becoming independent allows us to invest in renewable energy and keep the proceeds (something we couldn't do within the Union). Scotland harbours 1/4 of Europes Wind and Tidal energy, this could be worth billions to us forever ahmen.
Renewable energy doesn't make very much money. At the moment (and for the forseeable future) it requires huge government subsidies.

(Original post by sauzee_4)
The financial industry.. Again not sure why you think this will decline? Bearing in mind none of the financial institutions have said they would leave (yes including Standard Life and RBS).
It very much depends on what happens regarding currency. If, for example, we were to continue using £Sterling without a formal currency union, then the Scottish financial industry would have no central bank to back them up.

Either the Scottish Government would have to buy significant currency reserves or the industry would relocate to rUK.
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Good bloke
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#8658
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#8658
(Original post by sauzee_4)
'Even excluding North Sea output, and calculating per capita GDP only by looking only at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment.'

Direct quote from the report
An economic assessment is not a credit rating.

Read http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3866b10a-9...#axzz2zchEJV5Q

The headlines are

Scotland would struggle to match the UK’s AAA credit rating with Standard & Poor’s if it failed to negotiate a currency union with London or the Eurozone
which, of course, it won't have.

while Scotland’s economic backdrop would qualify for its “highest economic assessment”, S&P would worry about the reliance of Scotland on the financial sector.
which rather contradicts the SNP's bullish stance on the size of the financial services sector.
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sauzee_4
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(Original post by Cryptographic)
...
Are you a Scottish resident? If so will try my best to respond to your comments when I finish work. If not obviously no point discussing it.

On the Standard and Poors report though you can see a quote on my post above. Google provides info on it too.

And on the RBS point, all RBS have said on the referendum in it's totality is this: they are investigating an EU law which states financial institutions can't be based in a country different to where they do most of their business - if it is clear they are doing so to avoid stricter regulation - (Sorry can't do bold type on my phone)

So in other words i think it's clear that RBS are just doing their due dilligence like any sensible business would. Haven't said they're leaving though, likewise Standard Life.
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Cryptographic
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#8660
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(Original post by sauzee_4)
Are you a Scottish resident? If so will try my best to respond to your comments when I finish work. If not obviously no point discussing it.

On the Standard and Poors report though you can see a quote on my post above. Google provides info on it too.

And on the RBS point, all RBS have said on the referendum in it's totality is this: they are investigating an EU law which states financial institutions can't be based in a country different to where they do most of their business - if it is clear they are doing so to avoid stricter regulation - (Sorry can't do bold type on my phone)

So in other words i think it's clear that RBS are just doing their due dilligence like any sensible business would. Haven't said they're leaving though, likewise Standard Life.
I will have a vote. Economic assessment =/= credit rating.

However they may be forced to.
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