The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Saracen's Fez
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#8741
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#8741
(Original post by JoeL1994)
I think any poll at the minute is near worthless, it all depends on Cameron's renegotiations over the next two years
Assuming that these renegotiations are more popular with the public than the status quo, then I think you can read as much into these polls as you can into any poll with potentially 2 years to go until the vote.

It'll be interesting to see, given they don't seem to have set a date yet, whether Cameron will do what you used to be able to do and wait for the time when the result is most likely to go his way and then call the vote.
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JoeL1994
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#8742
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#8742
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I wouldn't say it's totally worthless, after all, it either tells is what people think supposing there is minimal renegotiation, or at least it gives us a starting point for looking at a long term trend, I think perhaps more interesting though I'd the explosion of Euroscepticism that this would suggest recently happened

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I think taking it as a starting point will be most useful. I think the result could end up closer than the Scottish Referendum, although as long as it's a no vote I don't care.
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Saracen's Fez
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#8743
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#8743
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Can't remember where but I do recall seeing something interesting suggesting a trend where as UKIP's national vote share increases, support for leaving the EU actually decreases, with the suggestion being that UKIP's controversy has put people off wanting to leave since they started becoming more popular.
That would be quite something. I wonder how Farage would take that?
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JoeL1994
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#8744
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#8744
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Assuming that these renegotiations are more popular with the public than the status quo, then I think you can read as much into these polls as you can into any poll with potentially 2 years to go until the vote.

It'll be interesting to see, given they don't seem to have set a date yet, whether Cameron will do what you used to be able to do and wait for the time when the result is most likely to go his way and then call the vote.
I think it'll be very interesting, has Cameron categorically said no to the possibility of 16/17 year olds voting?
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Saracen's Fez
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#8745
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#8745
(Original post by JoeL1994)
I think it'll be very interesting, has Cameron categorically said no to the possibility of 16/17 year olds voting?
Philip Hammond has apparently, and I assume Cameron will back him up on that.
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KingStannis
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#8746
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#8746
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Can't remember where but I do recall seeing something interesting suggesting a trend where as UKIP's national vote share increases, support for leaving the EU actually decreases, with the suggestion being that UKIP's controversy has put people off wanting to leave since they started becoming more popular.
Don't do political science, but it seems to me as the consensus gets more moderate UkIP get more popular.
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Saracen's Fez
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#8747
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#8747
(Original post by KingStannis)
Don't do political science, but it seems to me as the consensus gets more moderate UkIP get more popular.
Moderate tends to mean more pro-Europe, so it's potentially the estranged left-wing and right-wing leaving for UKIP.
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Rakas21
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#8748
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#8748
(Original post by JoeL1994)
I think any poll at the minute is near worthless, it all depends on Cameron's renegotiations over the next two years
Won't make all that much difference, i suspected an In win regardless purely because of how few people care. The renegotiation will be minor but symbolic and simply pump up the figure for In.
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Saracen's Fez
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#8749
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#8749
(Original post by Rakas21)
Won't make all that much difference, i suspected an In win regardless purely because of how few people care. The renegotiation will be minor but symbolic and simply pump up the figure for In.
Certainly what I've seen of the renegotiations that Cameron wants is mostly pretty minor stuff, and stuff that other countries are likely to want to see too. I'm pretty sure some of it would actually be possible now.
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Rakas21
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#8750
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#8750
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
Certainly what I've seen of the renegotiations that Cameron wants is mostly pretty minor stuff, and stuff that other countries are likely to want to see too. I'm pretty sure some of it would actually be possible now.
The main reason for me that the skeptics are always going to lose is because most people hate immigration rather than the EU itself. Now a lot of people will vote out purely for the chance at reducing immigration however if your in places like Dewsbury or Keighley then your far more likely to be concerned with non-EU immigrants than you are the Polish and these anti-immigrant people may not rally behind the Out campaign if they don't really care much about the EU itself.

Hence it really depends on non-Tory anti-immigrant vote in the south as to how they do but i suspect it would not be enough regardless of the negotiations.
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Aph
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#8751
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#8751
(Original post by Rakas21)
The main reason for me that the skeptics are always going to lose is because most people hate immigration rather than the EU itself. Now a lot of people will vote out purely for the chance at reducing immigration however if your in places like Dewsbury or Keighley then your far more likely to be concerned with non-EU immigrants than you are the Polish and these anti-immigrant people may not rally behind the Out campaign if they don't really care much about the EU itself.

Hence it really depends on non-Tory anti-immigrant vote in the south as to how they do but i suspect it would not be enough regardless of the negotiations.
Some but is it so simple? There are lots of people I've met who will say ridiculous stuff like "I want to leave to EU to stop all these Asians coming over" the anti-immigration rhetoric of the out campaign has become so powerful people don't even realise simple stuff like that.
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tehFrance
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#8752
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#8752
(Original post by Aph)
Some but is it so simple? There are lots of people I've met who will say ridiculous stuff like "I want to leave to EU to stop all these Asians coming over" the anti-immigration rhetoric of the out campaign has become so powerful people don't even realise simple stuff like that.
I want out to stop those horrible frogs leaping across the channel! :france:
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Jammy Duel
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#8753
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#8753
Coming back to the newspaper discussion. Decided in light of it to buy the times today. I think little of it, although I didn't expect much given I didn't think much of it last time I read it, nor the time before, or before that...

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PetrosAC
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#8754
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#8754
(Original post by JoeL1994)
It appears so, although I think PetrosAC and mobbsy91 have a more gruelling race than I do
All mobbsy's gotta do is sit on a train for 30 minutes And then run a teeny bit.

I hope we actually go through with this though.
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JoeL1994
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#8755
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#8755
(Original post by PetrosAC)
All mobbsy's gotta do is sit on a train for 30 minutes And then run a teeny bit.

I hope we actually go through with this though.
I'm completely up for this
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tehFrance
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#8756
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#8756
I just realised that if I get the grades I think I will in my OU degree and then apply for an MBA at Columbia/NYU Stern/Harvard/Wharton with Columbia being top choice, it'll cost the same as an MBA from LBS/Cambridge/Oxford and this includes living costs! **** me, the US is cheap as chips
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Jammy Duel
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#8757
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#8757
(Original post by tehFrance)
I just realised that if I get the grades I think I will in my OU degree and then apply for an MBA at Columbia/NYU Stern/Harvard/Wharton with Columbia being top choice, it'll cost the same as an MBA from LBS/Cambridge/Oxford and this includes living costs! **** me, the US is cheap as chips
How? Aren't top US like $40k+ pa for a decent degree, or is that the total?

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InnerTemple
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#8758
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#8758
Ello ello ello.

What's all this then?
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Krollo
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#8759
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#8759
A couple of interesting by-elections tonight... Wallington South will be indicative of the ostensible 'Lib Dem Fightback' down south; Tower Hamlets will be indicative of how long they left the ballot boxed unattended for.


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Tanqueray91
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#8760
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#8760
(Original post by PetrosAC)
All mobbsy's gotta do is sit on a train for 30 minutes And then run a teeny bit.

I hope we actually go through with this though.
Running for me is a big thing xD
(Original post by JoeL1994)
I'm completely up for this
I'm totally up for it... I was thinking head to a pub after as well? the two losers have to get the frits two rounds?
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