The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Aph
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#8821
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#8821
(Original post by Nigel Farage MEP)
Yes, very much. A few more than others, Aph especially, because he reminds me of a person I know very well.
i do, do I?:beard:
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Aph
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#8822
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#8822
(Original post by Rakas21)
It's always interesting to me why some people like to follow/lead or don't care. I myself have come to love being in control (have a weird lust for power) although i tend to follow instruction quite well too. I imagine that if i was prepared to get shot at then i'd have made a decent soldier.
I would suggest doing research into adorno and the F-scale in particular. it's rather fascinating and it can be aplied quite easily.
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Jammy Duel
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#8823
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#8823
(Original post by Aph)
right so fertility rate is births per woman for their entire life

female population = 31,520,040
fertility rate = 1.90
female life expectancy = 83

so we do 31,520,040*1.90=59,888,076 total babies the current uk population will produce.
59,888,076+200,000*83=76,488,076 to estimate how many there would've been with no abortion
and then \frac{76,488,076}{31,520,040}=2.  43 with no abortion which is above replacement of 2.1
Fail. It's not the entire lifespan, merely the "fertile" age that matters, so that *83 should be *34, brining it down to about 2.18 (did a chunk of rounding) rather than 2.43
Either way, we're above the national replacement rate in that instance.

Nigel Farage MEP- Since we're playing the "thoughts based on little information" game, thoughts?
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Tanqueray91
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#8824
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#8824
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Fail. It's not the entire lifespan, merely the "fertile" age that matters, so that *83 should be *34, brining it down to about 2.18 (did a chunk of rounding) rather than 2.43

Nigel Farage MEP- Since we're playing the "thoughts based on little information" game, thoughts?
Don't tell him to do that... He'll work out about your deepest and darkest secrets xD
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KingStannis
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#8825
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#8825
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Fail. It's not the entire lifespan, merely the "fertile" age that matters, so that *83 should be *34, brining it down to about 2.18 (did a chunk of rounding) rather than 2.43

Nigel Farage MEP- Since we're playing the "thoughts based on little information" game, thoughts?
Thought it was a bit odd bringing 84 year old women into it.
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Jammy Duel
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#8826
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#8826
(Original post by KingStannis)
Thought it was a bit odd bringing 84 year old women into it.
Well, who knows with Aph, might be something he enjoys before the cull
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KingStannis
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#8827
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#8827
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Well, who knows with Aph, might be something he enjoys before the cull
Nicely done.
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Aph
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#8828
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#8828
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Fail. It's not the entire lifespan, merely the "fertile" age that matters, so that *83 should be *34, brining it down to about 2.18 (did a chunk of rounding) rather than 2.43

Nigel Farage MEP- Since we're playing the "thoughts based on little information" game, thoughts?
well i should just point out that everyone else did the same as i did so it wasnt just me. but I guess that that makes sense...
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Jammy Duel
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#8829
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#8829
(Original post by Aph)
well i should just point out that everyone else did the same as i did so it wasnt just me. but I guess that that makes sense...
And I'm also doubting myself, I do actually think that you guys are right thinking about it
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KingStannis
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#8830
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#8830
(Original post by Green_Pink)
That does seem like a pretty accurate impression actually And teaching sounds good, but going by the teachers I know the reality isn't so kind - the days may be 8 hours long but only if you worked termtime weekends too, there's no way it's 40 hours a week in term. Postgrad? I have no idea really, I'm bad enough at figuring out what I'm going to do this evening let alone in three years time

Paw you



Good to know...
Also using tsr's avatars is deeply boring.
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Aph
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#8831
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#8831
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
And I'm also doubting myself
it is over their entire life which is why i assumed 84. but given that they can only have children for less time maybe what you've done is right. but would post-menopausal treatments not mean that people can give birth via IVF at anytime so it would be 70 as not many babys are giving birth.
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KingStannis
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#8832
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#8832
You can't use maths as the sole way to figure out that stuff, it has to be a tool. Ceteras parabus assumption rarely conform to reality. And getting the assumption right would take far too much effort to bother with.

Also why the ell are we talking about this.
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Aph
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#8833
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#8833
(Original post by KingStannis)
You can use maths as the sole way to figure out that stuff, it has to be a tool. Ceteras parabus assumption rarely conform to reality.

Also why the ell are we talking about this.
presumably rakas wanted to know if we would be above replacement so there would be less need for immigration?
replacement is 2.1
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jenhasdreams
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#8834
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#8834
(Original post by Rakas21)
There are people as high as about 30 in certain sub-forums. To be fair to them though you can get a decent debate on some topics and why leave.
As old as that??
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United1892
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#8835
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#8835
(Original post by Aph)
well i should just point out that everyone else did the same as i did so it wasnt just me. but I guess that that makes sense...
i just added the extra 200,000 to the current amount of births took out the number of still borns and miscarriages expected then divided that by the current amount of births and multiplied the current birth rate by the answer.
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Rakas21
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#8836
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#8836
(Original post by Aph)
presumably rakas wanted to know if we would be above replacement so there would be less need for immigration?
replacement is 2.1
I'd still maintain high immigration (though i don't agree with the third world immigration we allow now) but yes, i do support a higher birth rate and population (i'd quite like a pension when i'm 101).
)
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username1524603
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#8837
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#8837
(Original post by KingStannis)
Aph reminds me of that guy who tries to stop you talking to women to "protect them" when they don't even care. Actually, that'd be because he did that once xD

Wow, don't need to lay into Mobs that much lol.
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Nigel Farage MEP- Since we're playing the "thoughts based on little information" game, thoughts?
I would not dare lay into our barman; I see it as a complement. I get that from Aph, he is like my brother where his strategy at making women friends is to protect them from an imaginary threat which is another boy approaching them. I think Aph is also the person who will argue with you until the sun goes down about anything even if he knows he is wrong because he does not like being picked up on something when he makes a mistake; which is like a lot of people I know.

Jammy Duel , definitely like my brother. Views himself as an expert at mathematics as that is where his degree interests lie but rushes to do something making a few mistakes.

(Original post by mobbsy91)
You're actually not too far off...I'm 18 in July - not a nerd (I don't think so anyway!). Don't have a girlfriend, but at the moment not looking for one - maybe when I"m at uni. Traditional but modern views, yeh... Actually, out of everyone I know at the moment, stressing out the least about exams - only because of my offer though... But yes, always deploy procrastination skills (on TSR, who doesn't...) over revision skills. Yeh, always focusing on the negative... have been called things from pessimistic, all the way to sadist and psychopath... I don't judge young parents when they allow their toddlers to misbehave. I judge all parents - although, since having my much younger brother, I am a little more tolerant with this (except on planes - that really ****s me off). Ever the cynic about benefit claimants... Haha, it's called 'Weir Farm' and it is in a rural area, but no pub (unfortunately) or chapel.
I am not sure if I am near to being right because you are a generic Conservative or because I am skilled at reading between the lines. The nerd test Ia always use it to ask someone if they would rather spend a night in on TSR learning through debating or spend a night at a party getting wardrobed. You have more patience than me but I agree with you about the children on planes who place boogers on the side of seats, hit you in the head as they try to climb over, and cannot stop screaming. What would your idea woman be like?

(Original post by Rakas21)
Mature student here (or new graduate anyway). There are people as high as about 30 in certain sub-forums. To be fair to them though you can get a decent debate on some topics and why leave. Very impressive analysis. Not particularly good at painting such an image myself, at least off the basis of a few posts for most people.
If it is what you have grown up with I can understand the urge to continue with TSR into your adult life with children and full-time work. For a Conservative I am half expecting you to announce your girlfriend is one of the lefty, liberal types who dresses quite hippyish and does not shave or wax; not that there is anything wrong with that.

(Original post by Green_Pink)
That does seem like a pretty accurate impression actually And teaching sounds good, but going by the teachers I know the reality isn't so kind - the days may be 8 hours long but only if you worked termtime weekends too, there's no way it's 40 hours a week in term. Postgrad? I have no idea really, I'm bad enough at figuring out what I'm going to do this evening let alone in three years time

Paw you
It depends on how long a teacher spends marking books as actual teaching is only sex hours a day and two hours seems enough time to mark. with a I was thinking life after university, the location you choose to live, your career, children and marriage, and the style of your ideal house.I am ashamed, I am being outclassed at English word play by a cat-loving lefty.
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Jammy Duel
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#8838
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#8838
(Original post by Aph)
it is over their entire life which is why i assumed 84. but given that they can only have children for less time maybe what you've done is right. but would post-menopausal treatments not mean that people can give birth via IVF at anytime so it would be 70 as not many babys are giving birth.
That's actually irrelevant, because for their whole lifespan the abortions are still happening, which probably isn't too helpful, perhaps a more helpful way to look at it is this:
Let's just simplify things a bit, like expectancy is 50, fertile range is 20-40, female population of 100, 10 abortions per year and we'll start with the 1.9 fertility with abortions.
So, during their fertile life span they will have on average 0.1 abortion per year, or two over the full 20, bringing the rate without abortions, supposing there is no other effect due to the pregnancy, 3.9.
If we do it your way we get 100 women, 1.9 fertility, so 190 babies. Then, 10 abortions per year for the whole time so that's 500 abortions, so that bring the rate up to 6.9

Okay, I'm done doubting myself and now going back to thinking I was right before.
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Rakas21
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#8839
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#8839
(Original post by jenhasdreams)
As old as that??
Yeah. At least in D&CA and the money sub-forum anyhow.
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Aph
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#8840
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#8840
(Original post by Rakas21)
I'd still maintain high immigration (though i don't agree with the third world immigration we allow now) but yes, i do support a higher birth rate and population (i'd quite like a pension when i'm 101).
the way I see it is that we shouldn't aim to keep a pyramid. I would rather we wated for all the old people to die off and then keep a stable population.
and we should allow all people.
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