The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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United1892
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#9201
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#9201
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Am I the only one with a sneaking, sneaking suspicion he's going to actually go and win despite the very long odds against it?
He definately could a lot of people are signing up as supporters to vote for him and he seems to have the largest members support. On 1 member 1 vote he has a chance.
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RayApparently
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#9202
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#9202
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Well, it'd certainly be entertaining

If I understand it right, it's not even OMOV but one supporter one vote - not only including trade unionists, but any random Socialist Worker type who loathes the PLP but is willing to pay £3 to vote Corbyn? Already seeing a fair few of them talking on Facebook/Twitter about how they're going to do this without giving rise to the "retake Labour from the inside" faction of the far-left rather than whether or not they should.
Yes, heaven know's how influential the affiliate vote will be.

I think the Red Labour faction is going to make this a much more bruising battle than it needs to be. I've lost some respect from them during this election.
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Green_Pink
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#9203
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#9203
(Original post by Markt1998)
He definately could a lot of people are signing up as supporters to vote for him and he seems to have the largest members support. On 1 member 1 vote he has a chance.
Very, very tempted to put a tenner on him at 20/1. Very rarely bet but that would be a nice Freshers Week fund if it came to fruition
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Green_Pink
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#9204
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#9204
(Original post by RayApparently)
Yes, heaven know's how influential the affiliate vote will be.

I think the Red Labour faction is going to make this a much more bruising battle than it needs to be. I've lost some respect from them during this election.
I can definitely see that. Odds on Burnham now rapidly backtracking to the left again having spend a couple of weeks doing his best Tony Blair Reincarnate impression now Corbyn's on the ballot?
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United1892
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#9205
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#9205
(Original post by RayApparently)
The sad thing is 'aspiration' isn't a bad thing. Its just been turned into a code-word justification for leaving those with least to fend for themselves.
I agree, its been redefined as an individual race to more money rather than caring about other things which are more important.
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RayApparently
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#9206
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#9206
(Original post by Markt1998)
As far as i see it labour has 2 options go right or stay where it is and lose its roots or go left and lose some floating voters. Going right will have a much more longlasting effect than going left.

Also Corbyn is the closest to my policies and Labour wont win in 2020 whatever they do.
You think Labour won't win in 2020? Pretty pessimistic.
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Jammy Duel
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#9207
(Original post by PetrosAC)
1000 years of Tory Government? Yikes!

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A thousand year Tory Reich sound good to me

(Original post by Markt1998)
As far as i see it labour has 2 options go right or stay where it is and lose its roots or go left and lose some floating voters. Going right will have a much more longlasting effect than going left.

Also Corbyn is the closest to my policies and Labour wont win in 2020 whatever they do.
Either way labour losses. Stay where they are and continue to slowly hemorrhaging losses, move left and lose the moderate right,or move right and lose the harder left.

I would say all they can do is become new labour again and hope these in time it's enough overcome UKIP and the Greens and the lib dems

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United1892
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#9208
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#9208
(Original post by RayApparently)
You think Labour won't win in 2020? Pretty pessimistic.
Blame Newcastle for my pessimism but i think if Labour fail to come back in Scotland people will be put off by an SNP coalition again. Id we go left we could lose marginals but if we go right were in danger of losing the already impatient north as we have in Scotland.
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TeeEff
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#9209
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#9209
(Original post by PetrosAC)
1000 years of Tory Government? Yikes!

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Excellent...
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United1892
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#9210
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#9210
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
A thousand year Tory Reich sound good to me



Either way labour losses. Stay where they are and continue to slowly hemorrhaging losses, move left and lose the moderate right,or move right and lose the harder left.

I would say all they can do is become new labour again and hope these in time it's enough overcome UKIP and the Greens and the lib dems

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Cant see as many floaters buying into new labour as in 1997 though. The tories seem to have centre ground occupied. Losing the left could well see the end of union funding as well and that would kill the party.
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United1892
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#9211
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#9211
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Very, very tempted to put a tenner on him at 20/1. Very rarely bet but that would be a nice Freshers Week fund if it came to fruition
The problem Corbyn will have is he will be high up on first choice votes but could well struggle to get over the 50% mark after that. The same will probably true of Kendall and the system could well play in Burnhams favour.
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Jammy Duel
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#9212
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#9212
(Original post by Markt1998)
Cant see as many floaters buying into new labour as in 1997 though. The tories seem to have centre ground occupied. Losing the left could well see the end of union funding as well and that would kill the party.
No matter what happens, we're likely looking at another case of perhaps 2 decades+ in opposition. The new me new labour that eventually take power will be even further from "true" labour than new labour. The only thing that makes it worth keeping the name is the totally idiotic, completely tribal voters.

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PetrosAC
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#9213
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#9213
(Original post by Markt1998)
The problem Corbyn will have is he will be high up on first choice votes but could well struggle to get over the 50% mark after that. The same will probably true of Kendall and the system could well play in Burnhams favour.
Completely agree with this

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United1892
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#9214
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#9214
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
No matter what happens, we're likely looking at another case of perhaps 2 decades+ in opposition. The new me new labour that eventually take power will be even further from "true" labour than new labour. The only thing that makes it worth keeping the name is the totally idiotic, completely tribal voters.

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Those tribal voters will leave some day.
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Jammy Duel
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#9215
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#9215
(Original post by Markt1998)
Those tribal voters will leave some day.
NJT Irish not until the party dies, whether that be absolutely or truly becoming Tories in disguise.

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United1892
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#9216
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#9216
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
NJT Irish not until the party dies, whether that be absolutely or truly becoming Tories in disguise.

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If Liz Kendall wins the leadership election then the truly tories in disguise will be this year.
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Green_Pink
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#9217
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#9217
(Original post by Markt1998)
The problem Corbyn will have is he will be high up on first choice votes but could well struggle to get over the 50% mark after that. The same will probably true of Kendall and the system could well play in Burnhams favour.
For Corbyn to win, I think he needs to hope (assuming Cooper is the first one eliminated) that after her votes have been transferred, Burnham finishes behind Kendall. That way it's Burnham's votes who are transferred (primarily, perhaps, to Corbyn) rather than Kendall's (to Burnham) or Corbyn's himself (again, most likely to Burnham).
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RayApparently
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#9218
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#9218
(Original post by Green_Pink)
For Corbyn to win, I think he needs to hope (assuming Cooper is the first one eliminated) that after her votes have been transferred, Burnham finishes behind Kendall. That way it's Burnham's votes who are transferred (primarily, perhaps, to Corbyn) rather than Kendall's (to Burnham) or Corbyn's himself (again, most likely to Burnham).
I seriously doubt Burnham will finish behind Kendall unless Corbyn's nomination has completely shattered his support base.
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Green_Pink
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#9219
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#9219
(Original post by RayApparently)
I seriously doubt Burnham will finish behind Kendall unless Corbyn's nomination has completely shattered his support base.
If it comes down to Burnham vs Corbyn in the final round, I'd be very surprised to see Corbyn win. It depends entirely how many Burnhamites switch to put Corbyn first.
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RayApparently
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#9220
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#9220
(Original post by Green_Pink)
If it comes down to Burnham vs Corbyn in the final round, I'd be very surprised to see Corbyn win. It depends entirely how many Burnhamites switch to put Corbyn first.
I'm going to be surprised to Corbyn win no matter what lol
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