The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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RayApparently
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(Original post by Burford99)
One could also argue that the years from the crash in 2008 to 2010 were harder.
With will be 10+ years ago in 2020.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by RayApparently)
The next 5 are going to be much harder. Osbourne will make sure of that. Also the next election will have a newly elected BoJo, May or Osbourne as leader.
Bojo

And I disagree, the cuts this parliament need to be about the same add the last, but we are in a stronger position SSSI we will grow out of out better, and it will be harsh cuts in this budget and the next one, light on 17 and 18(if applicable) and giving back from then, unless we have the next minor recession in the cycle this decade. The electorate will further about these harsh cuts and just remember the giving back. Easy(ish) win

And even though bojo's popularity will be decreased nor he's part of the establishment, he will still be massively popular.

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Rakas21
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
For Corbyn to win, I think he needs to hope (assuming Cooper is the first one eliminated) that after her votes have been transferred, Burnham finishes behind Kendall. That way it's Burnham's votes who are transferred (primarily, perhaps, to Corbyn) rather than Kendall's (to Burnham) or Corbyn's himself (again, most likely to Burnham).
The first round should be pretty interesting because i think Corbyn and Kendall have the clearest zones of voters while Burnham and Cooper overlap. Where Kendall has the advantage is that all Blairites just about will have her as 1st or 2nd preference whereas Corbyn will get a lot of 1st but probably won't be able to last beyond a second round.

My prediction is that it goes to 3rd preferences so all the way..

R1: Corbyn and Kendall (who wins depends on how many Blairites vs Socialists are in the party)
R2: Kendall will lead here
R3: Burnham/Cooper win depending on which one survived R1

(Original post by RayApparently)
Worst kind of Tory tbh. Worse than Blair.
I stand by my prior beliefs. What England as a whole wants (in terms of 40%+) is a mildly anti-immigrant Blairite who doesn't go to war. I imagine a Kendall manifesto probably looks appealing.
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United1892
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(Original post by RayApparently)
The next 5 are going to be much harder. Osbourne will make sure of that. Also the next election will have a newly elected BoJo, May or Osbourne as leader.
If its BoJo theyll win.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Markt1998)
If its BoJo theyll win.
Almost certainly will be, he already has the popularity. Osborne won't stand and May won't win.

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RayApparently
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(Original post by Markt1998)
If its BoJo theyll win.
I think you've underestimated the electorate.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Bojo

And I disagree, the cuts this parliament need to be about the same add the last, but we are in a stronger position SSSI we will grow out of out better, and it will be harsh cuts in this budget and the next one, light on 17 and 18(if applicable) and giving back from then, unless we have the next minor recession in the cycle this decade. The electorate will further about these harsh cuts and just remember the giving back. Easy(ish) win

And even though bojo's popularity will be decreased nor he's part of the establishment, he will still be massively popular.

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They're actually much worse than the last terms.

I don't think the country wants a clown for Prime Minister. That's not to say people don't love clowns. They do love 'em.
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United1892
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(Original post by RayApparently)
I think you've underestimated the electorate.
Unfortunately I dont think i have.
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United1892
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Almost certainly will be, he already has the popularity. Osborne won't stand and May won't win.

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Osbournes awful anyway and May does a lot of U-Turns.

The problem is people see the clown Boris and vote for him instead of the setting fire to a £50 note in front of a homeless person Boris.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Markt1998)
That is a good point but he certainly got more right wing as he went on and now he pops up every so often and says we need to occupy the 'radical centre'.

He might not be a tory but hes still really annoying.
If we're talking economically then his first term was far more right wing than his second even with the minimum wage and other measures. Blairism is more about not moving much left (i.e. no taxing or nationalisation) than moving right.

Socially, it would have been hard for a PM not to go after terrorists.

(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Bojo

And I disagree, the cuts this parliament need to be about the same add the last, but we are in a stronger position SSSI we will grow out of out better, and it will be harsh cuts in this budget and the next one, light on 17 and 18(if applicable) and giving back from then, unless we have the next minor recession in the cycle this decade. The electorate will further about these harsh cuts and just remember the giving back. Easy(ish) win

And even though bojo's popularity will be decreased nor he's part of the establishment, he will still be massively popular.

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Bojo would probably be popular enough to make gains but he's never demonstrated any real strategic thinking that would give him a landslide. It's a shame Osbourne has overseen divisive austerity because he's actually extremely strategic and if he had Cameron's softer image then he could be highly successful. He's the only leading Tory who seems to have a clue how to take Labour areas in the north en masse (should it pay off).

I myself intend to vote Gove should he stand however word is that he'll be Osbourne's chancellor. The main task is to keep a May-Hammond ticket out.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Markt1998)
Osbournes awful anyway and May does a lot of U-Turns.

The problem is people see the clown Boris and vote for him instead of the setting fire to a £50 note in front of a homeless person Boris.
Osborne is the sort of iteration who will happily bit be a major figure in the history books but will more than happily rule from the back seat, if bojo will guarantee him chancellor he will back bojo.

As I said, bojo has the popularity, he can easily win unless somebody exceptional comes up.

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United1892
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(Original post by Rakas21)
The first round should be pretty interesting because i think Corbyn and Kendall have the clearest zones of voters while Burnham and Cooper overlap. Where Kendall has the advantage is that all Blairites just about will have her as 1st or 2nd preference whereas Corbyn will get a lot of 1st but probably won't be able to last beyond a second round.

My prediction is that it goes to 3rd preferences so all the way..

R1: Corbyn and Kendall (who wins depends on how many Blairites vs Socialists are in the party)
R2: Kendall will lead here
R3: Burnham/Cooper win depending on which one survived R1



I stand by my prior beliefs. What England as a whole wants (in terms of 40%+) is a mildly anti-immigrant Blairite who doesn't go to war. I imagine a Kendall manifesto probably looks appealing.
Not sure Kendall will be ahead in round 2 both Corbyn and her could be equally as unpopular with Burnham and Cooper voters and there are more socialists than blairites in the party but the socialists are more likely to vote for someone who they think is more electable than Corbyn.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by RayApparently)
I think you've underestimated the electorate.
Apparently he's not popular in the parliamentary party and i suspect the older members won't like his pro-immigration, pro-gay marriage type views once a campaign starts.
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username878267
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Unless labour actually become a Labour Party rather than the Tory lite 'we need aspiration ' party they'll never get in again.

Whatever happens though labour has zero chance of winning 2020. Boris may as well move his stuff in.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Apparently he's not popular in the parliamentary party and i suspect the older members won't like his pro-immigration, pro-gay marriage type views once a campaign starts.
I think the real scrutiny that comes with leadership will crush him. He's a brilliant politician but I don't think very many people genuinely want him as their leader. Don't give the jester the clown.
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United1892
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Socially, it would have been hard for a PM not to go after terrorists.
Maybe he should have assessed things before launching us into an illegal war.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by Markt1998)
Maybe he should have assessed things before launching us into an illegal war.
I'll never understand the foreign policy of the left.. complain about removing a tyrant because a UNSC that includes Russia vetoed it.
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(Original post by Rakas21)
If we're talking economically then his first term was far more right wing than his second even with the minimum wage and other measures. Blairism is more about not moving much left (i.e. no taxing or nationalisation) than moving right.

Socially, it would have been hard for a PM not to go after terrorists.



Bojo would probably be popular enough to make gains but he's never demonstrated any real strategic thinking that would give him a landslide. It's a shame Osbourne has overseen divisive austerity because he's actually extremely strategic and if he had Cameron's softer image then he could be highly successful. He's the only leading Tory who seems to have a clue how to take Labour areas in the north en masse (should it pay off).

I myself intend to vote Gove should he stand however word is that he'll be Osbourne's chancellor. The main task is to keep a May-Hammond ticket out.
Liz Kendall v Theresa May, who would you (likely) vote for?
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KingStannis
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I'm predicting Corbyn will do well since all members can vote and most non politically minded labour supporters take the "**** Blair, new labour are basically Tories, Tories are evil, Labour need to go back to socialism" approach.
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KingStannis
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I'll never understand the foreign policy of the left.. complain about removing a tyrant because a UNSC that includes Russia vetoed it.
This.

The Iraqis are thankful to Blair, Kosonovians name their children after Blair, people are no longer killing each other in Ireland thanks to Blair. Lets get off his back about foreign policy and be level headed, factual historians about this.
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