The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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TeeEff
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#9401
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#9401
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
£25? There's a surprise

He might win the first round, but after that I would imagine transfers wouldn't favour him, and should he win he may get to experience the annual confidence votes and find himself out of a job should he perform as badly as I fear.
My Conservative Future membership is much cheaper at a fiver.

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Rakas21
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#9402
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#9402
Sadly it's age based rather than student, they got the full £25 out of me.

I'll probably go to conference next year since its in Leeds.
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Saracen's Fez
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#9403
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#9403
(Original post by Rakas21)
You say that, but most parents probably can't tell you exactly what it is they are supposed to dislike. With Corbyn, people know he's a radical.

I support Gove as the next leader as things stand.
He's of the far right and risks alienating the centre ground, i.e. the Blair voters who have switched to Cameron. Obviously this is dependent on the alternative wearing red, but Gove's views would clash with a lot of people's, even if the education system has forgiven him by then.
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Jammy Duel
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#9404
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Sadly it's age based rather than student, they got the full £25 out of me.

I'll probably go to conference next year since its in Leeds.
I thought it just alternated between Manchester and Birmingham.

Well, if I do a masters that will be rather convenient, being in York.

Alternatively, I might look to find work in leeds and then layer move down to London so I can keep playing polo with york while I build up some cash for some ponies and a residence in London, then look to getting transfered to London.

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Rakas21
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#9405
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#9405
(Original post by Saracen's Fez)
He's of the far right and risks alienating the centre ground, i.e. the Blair voters who have switched to Cameron. Obviously this is dependent on the alternative wearing red, but Gove's views would clash with a lot of people's, even if the education system has forgiven him by then.
I'm not sure where this impression has come from bar an article 15 years ago supporting the death penalty. Gove is an affirmed Cameroon, he's no more to the right than Osbourne or Boris. What Gove does have though is a vision of what he wants Britain to be and a willingness to push to through opposition to get there. He lacks tact, but i suspect that if he ran then people would warm up to him quite a lot.
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Rakas21
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#9406
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I thought it just alternated between Manchester and Birmingham.

Well, if I do a masters that will be rather convenient, being in York.

Alternatively, I might look to find work in leeds and then layer move down to London so I can keep playing polo with york while I build up some cash for some ponies and a residence in London, then look to getting transfered to London.

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Which job do you want?

Whatever i do, my preference is for Leeds, Manchester or Nottingham. Location and cost of living with decent number of jobs wins it for me. I'm sure London would be wonderful but you'd need the salary.
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Jammy Duel
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#9407
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#9407
(Original post by Rakas21)
Which job do you want?

Whatever i do, my preference is for Leeds, Manchester or Nottingham. Location and cost of living with decent number of jobs wins it for me. I'm sure London would be wonderful but you'd need the salary.
Banking, need a high income to support the lifestyle I've become accustomed to while at home, and then some more for polo, particularly given that as much as I like riding, I don't particularly like looking after the horses (given I helped my last girlfriend with hers) which really pushes up the costs.

As a not unrelated aside, feels really weird being back in my toe tectors, riding boots are so comfortable I'm half tempted to make them my general purpose footwear, especially now that the top is stretching enough I can get them properly done up.

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Green_Pink
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#9408
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#9408
(Original post by Rakas21)
You say that, but most parents probably can't tell you exactly what it is they are supposed to dislike. With Corbyn, people know he's a radical.

I support Gove as the next leader as things stand.
We'll yes, but that's hardly any different. They just have something to label him with, rather than the political knowledge to oppose his policies. Much like they might simply label Gove as a smug, stuck-up little ****.
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Green_Pink
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#9409
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#9409
It probably won't happen, but I would laugh for the rest of my life if Tory members helped elect Corbyn leader, and he then actually went and beat them.
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Jammy Duel
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
It probably won't happen, but I would laugh for the rest of my life if Tory members helped elect Corbyn leader, and he then actually went and beat them.
I would be a little surprised, would probably do something that cannot be mentioned on this site if he then won the election

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Green_Pink
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#9411
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
I would be a little surprised, would probably do something that cannot be mentioned on this site if he then won the election

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For a start, I think he'd be more competitive in Scotland and could move Labour back to a half-decent total there. He'd definitely kill off the Green vote quite dramatically, and I think he'd take chunks out of UKIP too, which'd give Labour a boost for the swing seats.

He is of course unlikely to convince too many of those who voted Tory - but they are only 24% of the population. The key to success for him would be boosting the Labour turnout. If he can give people something they actually admire to vote for - something that excites them and makes them think things will actually change, even if they don't agree with each and every policy - then you never know what might happen. We've seen in Scotland how a popular political movement can completely change the political landscape overnight, as voters are re-invigorated and their enthusiasm spreads: Corbyn's aim has to be to replicate that in England with a radical Labour offer. Of all the candidates, Corbyn would be the one who scared me if I were a Tory.
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Jammy Duel
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#9412
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
For a start, I think he'd be more competitive in Scotland and could move Labour back to a half-decent total there. He'd definitely kill off the Green vote quite dramatically, and I think he'd take chunks out of UKIP too, which'd give Labour a boost for the swing seats.

He is of course unlikely to convince too many of those who voted Tory - but they are only 24% of the population. The key to success for him would be boosting the Labour turnout. If he can give people something they actually admire to vote for - something that excites them and makes them think things will actually change, even if they don't agree with each and every policy - then you never know what might happen. We've seen in Scotland how a popular political movement can completely change the political landscape overnight, as voters are re-invigorated and their enthusiasm spreads: Corbyn's aim has to be to replicate that in England with a radical Labour offer. Of all the candidates, Corbyn would be the one who scared me if I were a Tory.
He might take Scotland and green, but beyond that would probably make Miliband look competent. It would be an incredibly easy win for the Tories on the basis of England being 85% of the population

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Green_Pink
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(Original post by Jammy Duel)
He might take Scotland and green, but beyond that would probably make Miliband look competent. It would be an incredibly easy win for the Tories on the basis of England being 85% of the population

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I just don't think he'll actually make many/any Miliband votes go Blue, and he might just surprise you in how many Purples and non-voters he can attract.
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Jammy Duel
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#9414
(Original post by Green_Pink)
I just don't think he'll actually make many/any Miliband votes go Blue, and he might just surprise you in how many Purples and non-voters he can attract.
According to analysis by one of the major pollsters labour is roughly half and half split between wanting a left and right shift. Somebody like Corbyn will probably lose enough of that right shift to other parties, whether it be UKIP, lib dem, or Tory to lose a lot of seats in the Midlands, hell, maybe a chunk from London and the north. And we won't need to argue the possibility of a labour SNP arrangement either, Labour alone would be bad enough.

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Green_Pink
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#9415
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#9415
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
According to analysis by one of the major pollsters labour is roughly half and half split between wanting a left and right shift. Somebody like Corbyn will probably lose enough of that right shift to other parties, whether it be UKIP, lib dem, or Tory to lose a lot of seats in the Midlands, hell, maybe a chunk from London and the north. And we won't need to argue the possibility of a labour SNP arrangement either, Labour alone would be bad enough.

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Thing is, I'd pay more attention to any polls of voters on Corbyn's actual policies rather than assume centrists will hate them all. I think in the middle ground there's popular support for nationalisations of key industries, booting the private companies out of the NHS, introducing a living wage, a more pacifist-leaning foreign policy, clampdowns on tax avoidance and scepticism on the EU. That's likely to be the bulk of a Corbyn manifesto - left-wing ideas that aren't too off-putting. At least unlike Miliband he'll be consistent, and I think that will win him not only respect but a good core base to build from.
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DaveSmith99
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#9416
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#9416
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
He might take Scotland and green, but beyond that would probably make Miliband look competent. It would be an incredibly easy win for the Tories on the basis of England being 85% of the population

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One-third of the population didn't vote, don't know why Labour seem to think it's easier to chase the soft tory vote when they've got 23 million non-voters they can appeal to instead.
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Rakas21
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#9417
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#9417
(Original post by Green_Pink)
For a start, I think he'd be more competitive in Scotland and could move Labour back to a half-decent total there. He'd definitely kill off the Green vote quite dramatically, and I think he'd take chunks out of UKIP too, which'd give Labour a boost for the swing seats.

He is of course unlikely to convince too many of those who voted Tory - but they are only 24% of the population. The key to success for him would be boosting the Labour turnout. If he can give people something they actually admire to vote for - something that excites them and makes them think things will actually change, even if they don't agree with each and every policy - then you never know what might happen. We've seen in Scotland how a popular political movement can completely change the political landscape overnight, as voters are re-invigorated and their enthusiasm spreads: Corbyn's aim has to be to replicate that in England with a radical Labour offer. Of all the candidates, Corbyn would be the one who scared me if I were a Tory.
Labour are likely to gain in Scotland regardless, simply from starting at such a low base. That being said i don't think Scotland is a left-right thing so bar a couple of seats he won't be getting a 10% swing or anything. The Green vote probably would fall but it's not that big. Because he's very pro-immigration, he'd only make limited gains from the Ukip protest vote. And i do think he'd be bleeding votes from Blairites (may not be many members, but there are a lot of voters). Your also making the mistake of assuming that people make rational weighed choices taking into account all policies (remember that people liked the energy freeze ect..), unfortunately electorates are less intelligent than that and so will base their vote on only 2 or 3 policies and i'd bet that if austerity is just about done with then the Tories will have whopping tax cuts or something as their counter-offer.

Nope, i'm fairly certain that Corbyn would lead them to a bigger loss than the others.
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TeeEff
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#9418
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#9418
(Original post by Green_Pink)
I think he'd take chunks out of UKIP too, which'd give Labour a boost for the swing seats.
Out of all the Labour candidates he's the least likely to get the kipper vote IMO. Just see their answers to the immigration question last night which is well regarded as the number one concern for UKIP voters.

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tehFrance
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#9419
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#9419
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Alternatively, I might look to find work in leeds and then layer move down to London so I can keep playing polo with york while I build up some cash for some ponies and a residence in London, then look to getting transfered to London.
You'll want to be in Ham if you're owning your own horses and Ham is costly, it's something like an aberage of £900,000-1,000,000 so good luck
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DaveSmith99
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#9420
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#9420
(Original post by The Financier)
Out of all the Labour candidates he's the least likely to get the kipper vote IMO. Just see their answers to the immigration question last night.

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None of them will pick up any votes from the actual anti-immigration, anti-EU vote, but a large portion of the UKIP vote was a protest vote. Look at how many votes they picked up from the Lib Dems. I think he's got the best chance of picking up some of those protest voters who are disillusioned with politics. Burnham's trying to present himself as this anti-Westminster figure just because he's got a northern accent. It won't work.
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