The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Tanqueray91
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#9421
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#9421
Well Physics was an absolute ****ing disaster.
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tehFrance
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#9422
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#9422
Two weeks... two beautiful weeks and I start my new job, one week from today I'll relocate and then bam! See you in hell
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Jammy Duel
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#9423
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#9423
(Original post by tehFrance)
You'll want to be in Ham if you're owning your own horses and Ham is costly, it's something like an aberage of £900,000-1,000,000 so good luck
Somebody yesterday who lives (some of the time) in London was saying about somewhere near London that's not too bad. Would need to do some research at the time.

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Tanqueray91
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#9424
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#9424
(Original post by tehFrance)
Two weeks... two beautiful weeks and I start my new job, one week from today I'll relocate and then bam! See you in hell
So jealous of you! Hope it all goes awesomely!
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KingStannis
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#9425
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#9425
****ing Ethics exaam. "Moral Judgements are unquestionably based on intuition-discus"-- how the **** are we supposed to tell if that's meta ethics or conscience?
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Green_Pink
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#9426
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#9426
(Original post by The Financier)
Out of all the Labour candidates he's the least likely to get the kipper vote IMO. Just see their answers to the immigration question last night which is well regarded as the number one concern for UKIP voters.

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I think the idea that UKIP voters are all primarily concerned about immigration is a fallacy. When we're talking about the working-class voters (I.E. the ones Labour could hope to win rather than the Tories-on-steroids camp) there seem to be two main concerns. One is that Farage is the only leader actually willing to speak his mind, stand up for them and offer change - Corbyn is Labour's answer to that. The second is that public services are under immense pressure, we have a housing crisis, and their simply aren't enough jobs - this base is likely to dwindle regardless as the economy recovers (although they will, regardless, never vote Tory) but what remains is more likely to be won by a left-wing, anti-austerity offer from Corbyn than some wishy-washy stuff Miliband-esque from the other candidates. As a very big bonus, I think the working-class UKIP voters have a lot in common with working-class non-voters: the same things can definitely appeal to both who, combined, are a very big chunk of the electorate.
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Tory101
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#9427
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#9427
(Original post by mobbsy91)
So jealous of you! Hope it all goes awesomely!
hello mobbsy
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Green_Pink
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#9428
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#9428
(Original post by DaveSmith99)
None of them will pick up any votes from the actual anti-immigration, anti-EU vote, but a large portion of the UKIP vote was a protest vote. Look at how many votes they picked up from the Lib Dems. I think he's got the best chance of picking up some of those protest voters who are disillusioned with politics. Burnham's trying to present himself as this anti-Westminster figure just because he's got a northern accent. It won't work.
Sorry, hadn't seen this on the next page before my reply but PRSOM - that's pretty much what I was trying to say but from someone who I assume is an actual Corbyn fan?
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Tory101
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#9429
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#9429
FTR, I'd like Liz to win. Basically a tory like myself. Corbyn's dangerous, some of you best not be so complacent, Green_Pink's right.
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tehFrance
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#9430
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#9430
(Original post by Green_Pink)
I think the idea that UKIP voters are all primarily concerned about immigration is a fallacy. When we're talking about the working-class voters (I.E. the ones Labour could hope to win rather than the Tories-on-steroids camp).
You're mixing up the underclass and working class, the Tories are the party of the working class. The underclass (benefits people) are associated more with Labour.

(Original post by mobbsy91)
So jealous of you! Hope it all goes awesomely!
It shall My big good bye shall come soon
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Somebody yesterday who lives (some of the time) in London was saying about somewhere near London that's not too bad. Would need to do some research at the time.
Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, that place where Reading is. Skip Kent at all costs. If you aim for within the M25, you'll be paying millions.
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Green_Pink
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#9431
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#9431
(Original post by tehFrance)
You're mixing up the underclass and working class, the Tories are the party of the working class. The underclass (benefits people) are associated more with Labour.


It shall My big good bye shall come soon

Surrey, Cambridgeshire, Oxfordshire, that place where Reading is. Skip Kent at all costs. If you aim for within the M25, you'll be paying millions.
Well, much as they're not to be greatly trusted, the people defined as "working class" by pollsters (C2DE I think is the official term) definitely voted for Labour over the Tories.
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tehFrance
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#9432
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#9432
(Original post by KingStannis)
****ing Ethics exaam. "Moral Judgements are unquestionably based on intuition-discus"-- how the **** are we supposed to tell if that's meta ethics or conscience?
It's quite clear that it's the latter rather than the former. Good day.
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KingStannis
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#9433
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#9433
We couldn't get elected when far left policies when they were actually relevant to the country. I don't see how paying lip service to dead ideologies will help us now.
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KingStannis
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#9434
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#9434
(Original post by tehFrance)
It's quite clear that it's the latter rather than the former. Good day.
No it's clearly meta ethics to some (like me), and obviously conscience to others. It's clearly asking, under mine and other's readings, whether ethical judgements are based on true intuitions, referring Moore's intuitionist theory.
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Green_Pink
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#9435
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#9435
Just to illustrate my point: the proportion of all eligible adults who voted Conservative this year was only a mere 2.5 percentage points higher than it was in 1997. This year they of course got a majority, rather than 97's Labour landslide. The media talk that the difference was the middle classes not trusting Labour and voting Tory instead is total nonsense - the "swing voter" we here so much of barely exists in reality, and the Tory vote in particular is pretty solid and rarely changes much. The difference between a Labour landslide and a total loss is primarily how many people who could support Labour they convince to a) get to the polling booth and b) support them rather than various other parties over the years - the SDP, Lib Dems, BNP, UKIP, Greens, SNP, various far-left entities, etc. That's why I think Corbyn would surprise people - he recognises the key isn't trying to steal the core vote from the Tories, it's getting the protest vote, the ambivalent, and the "all of you are just the same" vote to back him. And he can. Because unlike the other three, he's actually different, whether we happen to like him or not.
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KingStannis
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#9436
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#9436
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Just to illustrate my point: the proportion of all eligible adults who voted Conservative this year was only a mere 2.5 percentage points higher than it was in 1997. This year they of course got a majority, rather than 97's Labour landslide. The media talk that the difference was the middle classes not trusting Labour and voting Tory instead is total nonsense - the "swing voter" we here so much of barely exists in reality, and the Tory vote in particular is pretty solid and rarely changes much. The difference between a Labour landslide and a total loss is primarily how many people who could support Labour they convince to a) get to the polling booth and b) support them rather than various other parties over the years - the SDP, Lib Dems, BNP, UKIP, Greens, SNP, various far-left entities, etc. That's why I think Corbyn would surprise people - he recognises the key isn't trying to steal the core vote from the Tories, it's getting the protest vote, the ambivalent, and the "all of you are just the same" vote to back him. And he can. Because unlike the other three, he's actually different, whether we happen to like him or not.
The Greens only got a million votes and won't get near that again, shifting left for them is a mistake. I think you're underestimating the fact that those UKIP and protest voters are more likely to succumb to scare campaigns which the Tories are great at. And make no mistake, he's a terrifying prospect. I'm left wing and I'm scared ****less

Labour kept most of their core seats. We could win every one of them, and get where near our majority. We need to win back the South. Promise Scotland full fiscal responsibility too; once they get it and **** the economy up people will flood back to labour.
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DaveSmith99
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#9437
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#9437
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Sorry, hadn't seen this on the next page before my reply but PRSOM - that's pretty much what I was trying to say but from someone who I assume is an actual Corbyn fan?
Yeah I do like Corbyn, think I'm going to sign up as a supporter or whatever it is and vote for him.
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Rakas21
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#9438
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#9438
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Well, much as they're not to be greatly trusted, the people defined as "working class" by pollsters (C2DE I think is the official term) definitely voted for Labour over the Tories.
D/E voters voted Labour but the Tories shockingly only lost 1% of the vote (29%).

C2 voters voted Tory in both 2010 (39%) and 2015 (36%) so Labour made gains but still lost these people.
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Green_Pink
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#9439
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#9439
(Original post by KingStannis)
The Greens only got a million votes and won't get near that again, shifting left for them is a mistake. I think you're underestimating the fact that those UKIP and protest voters are more likely to succumb to scare campaigns which the Tories are great at. And make no mistake, he's a terrifying prospect. I'm left wing and I'm scared ****less

Labour kept most of their core seats. We could win every one of them, and get where near our majority. We need to win back the South. Promise Scotland full fiscal responsibility too; once they get it and **** the economy up people will flood back to labour.
A million votes is already half the difference between the Labour and Tory parties! And the mistake is thinking these people are all in Labour-held seats: just look at Nuneaton. The Tories won there by 10.6%. The Greens have 2.8%, UKIP have 14.4%, and this is on a turnout of just 67.2% in a key marginal. If you win back, say, 2.5% from the Greens, 7% from UKIP, and bring the turnout back to 1997 levels, it's in all likelihood a Labour gain even if they have no movement or a slight net loss in terms of Labour-Tory switchers.
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Rakas21
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#9440
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#9440
(Original post by KingStannis)
The Greens only got a million votes and won't get near that again, shifting left for them is a mistake. I think you're underestimating the fact that those UKIP and protest voters are more likely to succumb to scare campaigns which the Tories are great at. And make no mistake, he's a terrifying prospect. I'm left wing and I'm scared ****less

Labour kept most of their core seats. We could win every one of them, and get where near our majority. We need to win back the South. Promise Scotland full fiscal responsibility too; once they get it and **** the economy up people will flood back to labour.
As much as scare campaigns about the SNP sent Lib Dems to the Tories where they were pleased with the coalition, one forgets just how clever the Tories are at vote targeting. If you look at the election analysis then the 60+ and home owner vote (both mortgage and outright) actually swung to the Tories in solid landslide territory. These people weren't scared, but rather bought by successive pandering budgets (and a poor counter offer from Labour beyond one policy - the stamp duty proposal).

It's all well and good having broad appeal but in a FPTP system, vote targeting (especially if constituencies contain high amounts of your target demographic) can pay great dividends.
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