The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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KingStannis
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#9441
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#9441
(Original post by Green_Pink)
A million votes is already half the difference between the Labour and Tory parties! And the mistake is thinking these people are all in Labour-held seats: just look at Nuneaton. The Tories won there by 10.6%. The Greens have 2.8%, UKIP have 14.4%, and this is on a turnout of just 67.2% in a key marginal. If you win back, say, 2.5% from the Greens, 7% from UKIP, and bring the turnout back to 1997 levels, it's in all likelihood a Labour gain even if they have no movement or a slight net loss in terms of Labour-Tory switchers.
But FPTP renders it meaningless. I think we've moved away from the fallacy of UKIP only taking Tory votes to the assumption that they only take Labour votes. They're more of a threat to Labour in the North, where Labour will win regardless. Down south people are genuinely right of centre.

Again, I'm assuming a bleeding of votes away from the protest votes now that we've seen they can't win. People's natural reaction will be to go back to what they know. Either the Tories or Labour or both will increase their seats in five years, quote me if I'm wrong.
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KingStannis
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#9442
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#9442
(Original post by Rakas21)
As much as scare campaigns about the SNP sent Lib Dems to the Tories where they were pleased with the coalition, one forgets just how clever the Tories are at vote targeting. If you look at the election analysis then the 60+ and home owner vote (both mortgage and outright) actually swung to the Tories in solid landslide territory. These people weren't scared, but rather bought by successive pandering budgets (and a poor counter offer from Labour beyond one policy - the stamp duty proposal).

It's all well and good having broad appeal but in a FPTP system, vote targeting (especially if constituencies contain high amounts of your target demographic) can pay great dividends.
Good point but labour can't compete with the Tories in core vote vs core vote **** waving battles.
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Saracen's Fez
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#9443
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#9443
Julia Gillard on Jeremy Vine today, talking about that famous anti-misogyny speech. Now if she were to run as Labour leader here I'd support her.
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Tanqueray91
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#9444
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#9444
(Original post by Tory101)
hello mobbsy
Hello! How you doing? (I feel honoured that you've said hi to me!)
(Original post by tehFrance)
It shall My big good bye shall come soon
I most certainly look forward to it
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RayApparently
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#9445
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#9445
Only just watched the Labour leadership debate. Very good show, I don't think Burnham did as badly as people have said but he wasn't especially inspiring. Corbyn pretty much convinced me. Of the 4 he and Kendall had the clearest message, I just happen to disagree with Kendall's profusely. Cooper seems nice and I think she'd be a competent leader but in all honesty I think Corbyn's more likely to win 2020 lol Cooper (and this problem might extend to Burnham) seems unlikely to shift voters to Labour. Our party needs a massive shake up wether its to the left or the right. Luke warm isn't good enough anymore.
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username456717
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#9446
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#9446
I really do hope that Suzanne Evans hasn't been sacked.
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Jammy Duel
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#9447
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#9447
(Original post by RayApparently)
Only just watched the Labour leadership debate. Very good show, I don't think Burnham did as badly as people have said but he wasn't especially inspiring. Corbyn pretty much convinced me. Of the 4 he and Kendall had the clearest message, I just happen to disagree with Kendall's profusely. Cooper seems nice and I think she'd be a competent leader but in all honesty I think Corbyn's more likely to win 2020 lol Cooper (and this problem might extend to Burnham) seems unlikely to shift voters to Labour. Our party needs a massive shake up wether its to the left or the right. Luke warm isn't good enough anymore.
If Corbyn is more likely to win 2020 than Copper I do wonder how she isn't divorced from balls yet.

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Rakas21
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#9448
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#9448
She's said nothing wrong, Farage can't lead the Out campaign.
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username878267
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#9449
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#9449
(Original post by Rakas21)
She's said nothing wrong, Farage can't lead the Out campaign.
My default position is ever so slightly in favour of staying in.
I could be persuaded to vote to leave by a strong argument not based on immigration and the scaremongering around it.
The problem is it will be UKIP and the right of the tory party leading the out campaign, two terrible factions whom I am uncomfortable sharing any platform with whatsoever.

I'm hugely against TTIP and the EU's horrible treatment of Greece but at the same time i'm massively in favour of free movement of people.

If the out campaign wants my vote and if they get that, a fair chunk on the left, then they'll need to give an inclusive campaign not based on exploiting the issue of immigration.
I'm open minded and will listen to most arguments but not one based on sensationalism and xenophobia.
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Rakas21
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#9450
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(Original post by Bornblue)
My default position is ever so slightly in favour of staying in.
I could be persuaded to vote to leave by a strong argument not based on immigration and the scaremongering around it.
The problem is it will be UKIP and the right of the tory party leading the out campaign, two terrible factions whom I am uncomfortable sharing any platform with whatsoever.

I'm hugely against TTIP and the EU's horrible treatment of Greece but at the same time i'm massively in favour of free movement of people.

If the out campaign wants my vote and if they get that, a fair chunk on the left, then they'll need to give a campaign not based on exploiting the issue of immigration.
I'm open minded and will listen to any argument but not one based on sensationalism and xenophobia.
I suspect any Out campaign would include immigration however I somewhat agree. The best chance of the Out campaign winning is to get somebody from the soft right who can appeal somewhat to the left of the Tories and right of Labour. Somebody like Zac Goldsmith (young, relatively liberal, but able to make the skeptic market arguments without sounding like a Nutter).
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I suspect any Out campaign would include immigration however I somewhat agree. The best chance of the Out campaign winning is to get somebody from the soft right who can appeal somewhat to the left of the Tories and right of Labour. Somebody like Zac Goldsmith (young, relatively liberal, but able to make the skeptic market arguments without sounding like a Nutter).
I could be persuaded and i'm left of Labour..
I'm not quite sure why Labour has jumped into such a pro-eu stance. It seems they saw a vaccuum there and decided to take that space of being the pro europe party.

As I said there are many nasty free market capitalist things about the EU such as TTIP and other agreements which would appeal to those on the left as reasons for leaving.
Not to mention their treatment of Greece, sucking all their money out the country and forcing them to sell off their assets.
I'm certainly not going to be won over by Nigel Farage though. In fact Farage is likely to do ten times the harm then good to the out campaign.

I don't hate Zac Goldsmith though so he may be a better bet.
I do want to see alongside him a left wing voice of opposition.

I doubt it though and will reluctantly probably vote to stay in, mainly down to the personnel and reasoning of those likely to represent the out-campaign.
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Rakas21
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#9452
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#9452
Andrew Neil just raised a good point, the last time somebody as left as Corbyn won a majority more than 3 was 1966. A hell of a long time.
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Rakas21
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#9453
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Interesting polling...

Firstly, 24% of Labour supporters don't know who they want as leader (more among the general population)..



Secondly, it does seem that people want Blair 2.0 over Milipede 1.1 (implies perhaps that the DK could break towards Kendall possibly if she sticks to her views)..

----------- Keeps loading the first image but Blair is a mile ahead in what the public and labour supporters want the next leader to be like.

And finally, people seem happy with how they voted in May to date because the Tory lead has increased..

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Actaeon
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#9454
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#9454
(Original post by nebelbon)
I really do hope that Suzanne Evans hasn't been sacked.
As do I. I know the media have been less than impartial towards UKIP, but having read the leaked email, I'm beginning to wonder if they don't have a point about the 'thin-skinned' jibe. It reads like an autocrat and his cronies stamping out any internal criticism of any kind, in order to maintain the 'perfectly united' image.
Also, am I alone in finding it a little creepy how Farage is constantly referred to as just 'Nigel'?
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KingStannis
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#9455
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#9455
**** sake. it can't be normal get onto ****ed up videos on youtube.
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Tanqueray91
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#9456
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(Original post by Rakas21)
snip
The poll about the Labour leader certainly is interesting...
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KingStannis
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#9457
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#9457
I spent all morning watching videos on summoning lucifer and interviews wtih real grey aliens
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Rakas21
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#9458
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#9458
(Original post by Actaeon)
As do I. I know the media have been less than impartial towards UKIP, but having read the leaked email, I'm beginning to wonder if they don't have a point about the 'thin-skinned' jibe. It reads like an autocrat and his cronies stamping out any internal criticism of any kind, in order to maintain the 'perfectly united' image.
Also, am I alone in finding it a little creepy how Farage is constantly referred to as just 'Nigel'?
They've already lost ~20% of their MEP's in 1 year and lost about 50% last term.. it's a bit like amateur hour when it comes to party management.
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Green_Pink
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#9459
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#9459
Are 6% of Labour members really so stupid that they say they would vote for a non-existent leadership candidate? Deary me that's actually legitimately scary.
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RayApparently
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#9460
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(Original post by Bornblue)
I could be persuaded and i'm left of Labour..
Your username always makes me think you're a Tory.
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