The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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RayApparently
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#9501
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#9501
(Original post by James Milibanter)
I mean, think about ALL the people who don't vote because "labour have changed" or "there's no passion in politics", ALL THOSE PEOPLE who don't vote now have someone to vote for, the conservatives are stupid because these people who don't vote are people who would NEVER vote conservative, and yet they're now giving the power to Corbyn, the ONLY candidate capable of enfranchising the disenfranchised.
Well put but keep it quiet! We wouldn't want the tories to catch on.
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by RayApparently)
Well put but keep it quiet! We wouldn't want the tories to catch on.
They wont listen, check every poll, Corbyn's got the favour of the people. He may not win, it's likely that he wont. But let me put this to you, Labour are screwed if he doesn't win, because the people want him.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by James Milibanter)
They wont listen, check every poll, Corbyn's got the favour of the people. He may not win, it's likely that he wont. But let me put this to you, Labour are screwed if he doesn't win, because the people want him.
I agree. Kendall destroys the party and I doubt Burnham and Cooper can do much better than Miliband.
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by RayApparently)
I agree. Kendall destroys the party and I doubt Burnham and Cooper can do much better than Miliband.
Kendall's a tory in a red tie at the end if the day, and conservative voters would rather a tory in a blue tie, she wont win that many votes. Burnham and Cooper don't have the electability that Blair, or even Corbyn has, maybe not even as much as Miliband had, which really goes to show something.
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RayApparently
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(Original post by James Milibanter)
Kendall's a tory in a red tie at the end if the day, and conservative voters would rather a tory in a blue tie, she wont win that many votes. Burnham and Cooper don't have the electability that Blair, or even Corbyn has, maybe not even as much as Miliband had, which really goes to show something.
You're hitting the nail on the head. Kendall won't shift that blue vote. In fact I think Corbyn could get us some of Scotland back.
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by RayApparently)
You're hitting the nail on the head. Kendall won't shift that blue vote. In fact I think Corbyn could get us some of Scotland back.
Exactly, they want to leave because they're tired of having a right wing government that they didn't vote for, the irony is that if they were going to continue voting labour then the Tories wouldn't have been able to play scaremongerers by putting Labour and the SNP in the same boat, and labour might have actually had a shot in england.
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Green_Pink
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(Original post by RayApparently)
You're hitting the nail on the head. Kendall won't shift that blue vote. In fact I think Corbyn could get us some of Scotland back.
Not only that, but I think Corbyn would a) Have a much better chance of negotiating a deal with the SNP should Labour be short of a majority and b) Would be more effective at combating the anti-SNP tendencies in England, and convincing people that they could work together on the economy. The Tories would have no choice but to attack Corbyn directly rather than build up a fear of the SNP and that might actually work in his favour.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by RayApparently)
He's got my vote then.
I thought you more of a Miliband/Burnham type.
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Green_Pink
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(Original post by Rakas21)
I thought you more of a Miliband/Burnham type.
Personally Ray has always struck me as someone who definitely isn't a Blairite, but beyond that would make any pragmatic choices necessary to try and achieve a Labour Government.

(Forgive me if I'm wrong there RayApparently )
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Rakas21
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(Original post by RayApparently)
You're hitting the nail on the head. Kendall won't shift that blue vote. In fact I think Corbyn could get us some of Scotland back.
My take having read accounts from both sides for days is that i'm still relatively confident that the Tories can make progress in England (and Wales if they are smart - 7 juicy targets, 5 in the north east) with Corbyn as leader. While i'm open to the idea that he may swing a handful of Scottish seats (though i still think anybody who views Scotland as a left-right issue is an idiot) and get say half the Green vote i don't think it will make a massive difference and i find the non-voter and Ukip stuff to be hopecasting (especially Ukip Labour voters where i think you lot really underestimate the importance of immigration), i've not seen anything to change my opinion. At best then he increases the vote without ever threatening the Tories (and indeed i suspect that even if Corbyn can get to 35% from Scotland and the Greens, he'd probably have lost 2-3% to the Tories).

With Kendall i think it's much more cut and dry. Kendall will get a few percent of people who basically want a kinder Tory government although probably no net gain since the Greens will pick up some leakage from people who don't like her. She has a much better chance of wooing Tory voters and Lib Dem-Tory voters though, especially if the Tories go whacky during the referendum or the economy slows significantly.

Neither is likely to win purely due to the fact that you need 99 seats (4th largest seat swing since 1945) however Corbyn has a ceiling between 30-35% regardless of how badly the Tories do purely because he's an actual lefty while Kendall can better capitalise on Tory mistakes even if the Tories performing perfectly probably renders her on the same level as Corbyn in 2020. More importantly though, Corbyn even with a high percentage will be up against the Tories on a high percentage while Kendal even on 35% will have dragged the Tories to about the same level.

..

One thing i will say is that you should not discount the Tories increasing their majority even if it's never been done twice in a row (since the war anyway). Some 40% of the Ukip vote was Tory in 2010 (so about 4-5% of the electorate) and while some will stay devout to Ukip, there's a couple of percent who will probably come back.

...

Hence my summary is that the odds are the Tories will be close to a majority in 2020 either way but the odds are better if Corbyn is Labour leader.
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username878267
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(Original post by Rakas21)
My take having read accounts from both sides for days is that i'm still relatively confident that the Tories can make progress in England (and Wales if they are smart - 7 juicy targets, 5 in the north east) with Corbyn as leader. While i'm open to the idea that he may swing a handful of Scottish seats (though i still think anybody who views Scotland as a left-right issue is an idiot) and get say half the Green vote i don't think it will make a massive difference and i find the non-voter and Ukip stuff to be hopecasting (especially Ukip Labour voters where i think you lot really underestimate the importance of immigration), i've not seen anything to change my opinion. At best then he increases the vote without ever threatening the Tories (and indeed i suspect that even if Corbyn can get to 35% from Scotland and the Greens, he'd probably have lost 2-3% to the Tories).

With Kendall i think it's much more cut and dry. Kendall will get a few percent of people who basically want a kinder Tory government although probably no net gain since the Greens will pick up some leakage from people who don't like her. She has a much better chance of wooing Tory voters and Lib Dem-Tory voters though, especially if the Tories go whacky during the referendum or the economy slows significantly.

Neither is likely to win purely due to the fact that you need 99 seats (4th largest seat swing since 1945) however Corbyn has a ceiling between 30-35% regardless of how badly the Tories do purely because he's an actual lefty while Kendall can better capitalise on Tory mistakes even if the Tories performing perfectly probably renders her on the same level as Corbyn in 2020. More importantly though, Corbyn even with a high percentage will be up against the Tories on a high percentage while Kendal even on 35% will have dragged the Tories to about the same level.

..

One thing i will say is that you should not discount the Tories increasing their majority even if it's never been done twice in a row (since the war anyway). Some 40% of the Ukip vote was Tory in 2010 (so about 4-5% of the electorate) and while some will stay devout to Ukip, there's a couple of percent who will probably come back.

...

Hence my summary is that the odds are the Tories will be close to a majority in 2020 either way but the odds are better if Corbyn is Labour leader.
Can't really disagree with much of that.
If Corbyn was elected his main hope and chance would be to get some of the 33% apathetic section to vote.
Even getting 10% of that would be a comfortable Labour
u majority. Out of all the candidates he would be most likely to enfranchise the disenfranchised.
Whether he would or not, I don't know but all those who don't vote are certainly not going to be inspired by Burnham, Kendall or Cooper.
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username878267
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It speaks volumes that Corbyn is regarded as an extremist for wanting workers to have rights and be paid a wage that they can live on rather than supporting ideological cuts and austerity and selling off our assets.


Apparently wanting everyone to have food and shelter makes you an extremist and far left.
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by Bornblue)
It speaks volumes that Corbyn is regarded as an extremist for wanting workers to have rights and be paid a wage that they can live on rather than supporting ideological cuts and austerity and selling off our assets.


Apparently wanting everyone to have food and shelter makes you an extremist and far left.
Couldn't put it better myself.
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username878267
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(Original post by James Milibanter)
Couldn't put it better myself.
But it's not 'aspirational' or 'efficient' or not in the 'national interest' or it goes against 'British values' and 'hard-working families' or whatever meaningless political buzzwords that the tories and New Labour deal in nowadays to mask their nasty policies.
Because that's what capitalism is, take a nasty concept, sugar coat it by giving it a nice fluffy name and then sell it to the consumer.
Ie making something more 'efficient' sounds good but what that means is making staff work longer and harder for less pay and we're all supposed to go 'yay efficiency!'.

The idea that wanting everyone to be able to afford to eat and employers to pay their workers a wage that they can actually live on makes you an extremist commie or something..
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jenhasdreams
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Heard Jeremy Corbyn speak at the anti austerity rally today and was very impressed. I am tempted to become a Labour "supporter" for £3 to be able to vote for him. You have to agree that you're not a member of an "opposing organisation" though. I don't know if Greens count as opposing as they contest the same seats.
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by Bornblue)
But it's not 'aspirational' or 'efficient' or not in the 'national interest' or it goes against 'British values' and 'hard-working families' or whatever meaningless political buzzwords that the tories and New Labour deal in nowadays.

The idea that wanting everyone to be able to afford to eat and employers to pay their workers a wage that they can actually live on makes you an extremist commie or something..
All he needs is the platform, once he gets that people will listen. There's one third of the population that doesn't vote, so we'll see what happens if he wins.
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Green_Pink
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(Original post by jenhasdreams)
Heard Jeremy Corbyn speak at the anti austerity rally today and was very impressed. I am tempted to become a Labour "supporter" for £3 to be able to vote for him. You have to agree that you're not a member of an "opposing organisation" though. I don't know if Greens count as opposing as they contest the same seats.
Not like they can easily enforce that anyway. I'd just do it based on your moral conscience - if you genuinely believe that you'd support a Corbyn-led Labour Party I don't see the issue with you voting for him!
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James Milibanter
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
Not like they can easily enforce that anyway. I'd just do it based on your moral conscience - if you genuinely believe that you'd support a Corbyn-led Labour Party I don't see the issue with you voting for him!
I don't see how a Green could not support a corbyn led labour party, that should be an extra 1,000,000 votes for Labour right there easily.
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jenhasdreams
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(Original post by Green_Pink)
Not like they can easily enforce that anyway. I'd just do it based on your moral conscience - if you genuinely believe that you'd support a Corbyn-led Labour Party I don't see the issue with you voting for him!
Well political party membership lists are available aren't they? I don't want to risk my membership!
I would still stay a Green Party member and I would still vote Green locally (Caroline Lucas is my MP) not the local Labour candidate. But, I would support a Labour government with him as leader and I know Caroline is a supporter of his and of more unity between left wing groups.
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KingStannis
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(Original post by James Milibanter)
I don't see how a Green could not support a corbyn led labour party, that should be an extra 1,000,000 votes for Labour right there easily.
This assumes 1. That all Green voters vote rationally and 2. That all Green voters vote for the Greens solely on the basis Labour aren't left enough.
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