The Commons Bar Mk IX - MHoC Chat Thread Watch

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Green_Pink
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#9521
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#9521
(Original post by jenhasdreams)
Well political party membership lists are available aren't they? I don't want to risk my membership!
I would still stay a Green Party member and I would still vote Green locally (Caroline Lucas is my MP) not the local Labour candidate. But, I would support a Labour government with him as leader and I know Caroline is a supporter of his and of more unity between left wing groups.
Are they? Google doesn't show everything anyway and I massively doubt the Greens would bother trying to figure out if anyone had voted in the Labour Party. Only thing to check is if Labour publish a list of their "supporters" or not but I'd be very surprised if they did.
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James Milibanter
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#9522
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#9522
(Original post by KingStannis)
This assumes 1. That all Green voters vote rationally and 2. That all Green voters vote for the Greens solely on the basis Labour aren't left enough.
Most people vote green because they want action on climate change, action on poverty and action on nuclear weapons. It's not that they want labour more left wing, but if their leader wants the same things that us Greens do, we'd be doing ourselves a disservice by not voting for him in the leadership elections, and then (granted he wins (unlikely i know)) voting for Labour in the next General Election.
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James Milibanter
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#9523
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#9523
jenhasdreams, I'm a RL Green Member and from what I know, most greens have been voting Corbyn, I certainly know that in our faction we've all done it.
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RayApparently
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#9524
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#9524
(Original post by Rakas21)
I thought you more of a Miliband/Burnham type.
I like Miliband (and in the internal Labour ideology poll I voted for him as the leader that best defines my beliefs) and was going to support Burnham until quite recently. But hearing Corbyn speak made me realise that our best chance is not a second Miliband and certainly isn't a pretender like Kendall. Its something radically different to tap into the disillusioned, Green and SNP vote.
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RayApparently
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#9525
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#9525
(Original post by Green_Pink)
Personally Ray has always struck me as someone who definitely isn't a Blairite, but beyond that would make any pragmatic choices necessary to try and achieve a Labour Government.

(Forgive me if I'm wrong there RayApparently )
This sounds about right.
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RayApparently
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#9526
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#9526
(Original post by Rakas21)
My take having read accounts from both sides for days is that i'm still relatively confident that the Tories can make progress in England (and Wales if they are smart - 7 juicy targets, 5 in the north east) with Corbyn as leader. While i'm open to the idea that he may swing a handful of Scottish seats (though i still think anybody who views Scotland as a left-right issue is an idiot) and get say half the Green vote i don't think it will make a massive difference and i find the non-voter and Ukip stuff to be hopecasting (especially Ukip Labour voters where i think you lot really underestimate the importance of immigration), i've not seen anything to change my opinion. At best then he increases the vote without ever threatening the Tories (and indeed i suspect that even if Corbyn can get to 35% from Scotland and the Greens, he'd probably have lost 2-3% to the Tories).

With Kendall i think it's much more cut and dry. Kendall will get a few percent of people who basically want a kinder Tory government although probably no net gain since the Greens will pick up some leakage from people who don't like her. She has a much better chance of wooing Tory voters and Lib Dem-Tory voters though, especially if the Tories go whacky during the referendum or the economy slows significantly.

Neither is likely to win purely due to the fact that you need 99 seats (4th largest seat swing since 1945) however Corbyn has a ceiling between 30-35% regardless of how badly the Tories do purely because he's an actual lefty while Kendall can better capitalise on Tory mistakes even if the Tories performing perfectly probably renders her on the same level as Corbyn in 2020. More importantly though, Corbyn even with a high percentage will be up against the Tories on a high percentage while Kendal even on 35% will have dragged the Tories to about the same level.

..

One thing i will say is that you should not discount the Tories increasing their majority even if it's never been done twice in a row (since the war anyway). Some 40% of the Ukip vote was Tory in 2010 (so about 4-5% of the electorate) and while some will stay devout to Ukip, there's a couple of percent who will probably come back.

...

Hence my summary is that the odds are the Tories will be close to a majority in 2020 either way but the odds are better if Corbyn is Labour leader.
Immigration is just another argument to be won. And some of UKIP's vote are protest voters anyway who'd vote for a non-establishment candidate like Corbyn.

The issue with the SNP is to expose the lie that they want a Labour government in Westminster. They want a Tory government (or a truly incompetent Labour government) to add credence to their demands to leave the Union.

Kendall spells the death of the party (and probably of the FPTP system respective parties benefit so much from) because if she wins there really will be no difference between the Labs and the Cons. She can't be Leader of the Opposition because she doesn't oppose the Tories on anything meaningful. At best she wants to do what Cameron's doing more efficiently(?).

The Labour Party which became something of a 'at-least-they're-not-the-Tories' luke-warm alternative in 2015 will be seen as 'basically-the-Tories' in 2020 and that's very, very bad for adversarial politics.

I also think you're underestimating those who don't vote (in fairness the Greens seem to overestimate their potential), and what they might do come 2020 if only they believe their vote would actually make a difference.
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username456717
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#9527
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#9527
How many MPs do I need to back a bill I have written?

I can't remember.
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Aph
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#9528
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#9528
(Original post by nebelbon)
How many MPs do I need to back a bill I have written?

I can't remember.
1

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username456717
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#9529
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#9529
(Original post by Aph)
1

Thanks
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James Milibanter
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#9530
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#9530
(Original post by RayApparently)

I also think you're underestimating those who don't vote (in fairness the Greens seem to overestimate their potential), and what they might do come 2020 if only they believe their vote would actually make a difference.
1 third of the population don't vote, it takes 1 third of the population to win an election, go figure.
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PetrosAC
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#9531
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#9531
How is everyone this evening?
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Jammy Duel
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#9532
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#9532
(Original post by PetrosAC)
How is everyone this evening?
Potentially in breach of the rules

Posted from TSR Mobile
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PetrosAC
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#9533
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#9533
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
Potentially in breach of the rules

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What did you do?
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Jammy Duel
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#9534
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#9534
(Original post by PetrosAC)
What did you do?
It's not what I have done

I know that for at least some threads my mindset is illicit

Definitely I'm breach of university and college rules

Posted from TSR Mobile
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PetrosAC
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#9535
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#9535
(Original post by Jammy Duel)
It's not what I have done

I know that for at least some threads my mindset is illicit

Definitely I'm breach of university and college rules

Posted from TSR Mobile
In that case, I hope you can refrain from posting anything too illicit
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Tanqueray91
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#9536
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#9536
(Original post by PetrosAC)
How is everyone this evening?
Not too bad, just absolutely knackered... Glad exams are all over though!!
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PetrosAC
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#9537
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#9537
(Original post by mobbsy91)
Not too bad, just absolutely knackered... Glad exams are all over though!!
Aye, the same! Though I've had two weeks of no exams
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Tanqueray91
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#9538
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#9538
(Original post by PetrosAC)
Aye, the same! Though I've had two weeks of no exams
Haha, lucky bugger Just so glad to be done with school to be honest with you...
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PetrosAC
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#9539
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#9539
(Original post by mobbsy91)
Haha, lucky bugger Just so glad to be done with school to be honest with you...
Hahaha I'm glad I've got my two months of sleep to look forward too, but then another year of college...
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Tanqueray91
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#9540
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#9540
(Original post by PetrosAC)
Hahaha I'm glad I've got my two months of sleep to look forward too, but then another year of college...
Hahaha, that sucks

Got Magaluf in a week or so actually but yeh, lots of rest, and then uni!!!
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