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EU referendum: Where does your vote lie? watch

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    (Original post by Observatory)
    It might surprise you to learn that Deutsche Bank is based in Germany, not the UK.
    I'm not sure the 9000 people that Deutsche Bank employ in the UK care particularly where the bank is officially based, so long as their jobs remain in Britain. The point of today's news story was to indicate that the bank is considering whether to move a number of those jobs back to Germany if Britain left the UK.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Why would they care when they know that Business will move to the EU in the long term? It is a competition.

    At the end of the day, Business will move to single market if there is more money for them.
    But is there more money for them?

    They just need to hop across the border to Ireland with a 14% Corp Tax and an excellent infrastructure.
    Why haven't they done this already then?

    The EU understand that access to several Hundred million people will entice business more than 60 million. Especially when Britain is unlikely to impose significant tariffs on imports.
    Pray tell why the EU would impose significant tariffs and we won't?

    There is also a thread I made a bit back basically asking people to defend this whole argument, nobody seemed willing to step up to the plate.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Yes, they will punish Britain.
    How do you believe they will do this?

    Be careful how you answer. If you believe that Britain loses from importing and wins from exporting, then for the EU to punish Britain they would have to hurt themselves far more than they would hurt us, since we import much more from them than they import from us. Fine, but that would suggest that their economies will shrink more than ours will due to any Brexit, whereas you have been predicting the opposite. On the other hand, if you believe Britain wins from importing and loses from exporting, why should we care that export industries like Mini might leave?

    They also understand that in the long term and short term that Businesses will just move or set up in the single market than in Britain. So, I don't think they would really care too much.


    Try being sensible. If you want to compare access to Europe being akin to having access to Nigeria then you are trying to be dishonest.
    The point you are missing is that empirically the prosperity of countries is determined almost entirely by own institutions, not trade arrangements. When Singapore began its growth it was a tiny market - smaller than Wales in every dimension - but today it is more productive than any state in Europe.

    Should this surprise us? No. Suppose that every country in the world refused to trade with us, regardless how good a deal we are offering. That is the worst case scenario. In that case, the result would not be that we do and make nothing, but rather that we try to do and make everything internally. How effective we are at that depends on our own institutions. So trade is just a small perturbative effect, even for small countries, and in reality it's attenuated even further, because the vast majority of countries will accept any good deal they're offered.

    It makes even less sense to make a Free Trade deal with Britain. It leaves no incentive for the major countries such as France and Germany to stay within the EU.
    This is the unique and insular perspective of the British europhile. The French and Germans do not consider integration to be some kind of cost they are paying in exchange for various trade benefits. They consider European integration an end in and of itself and are generally ambivalent at best to trade liberalisation.


    Second, you cut out the most important part of my post:

    However what L i b said was not an argument from specific circumstances. He said that a free trade agreement intrinsically requires a submission of sovereignty on par with that required by the EU, and so no better arrangement was possible even principle. I said that the example of South Korea shows that that is, to put it mildly, dramatically overstated.
    It seems you are not defending L i b's point, just inserting yourself into our discussion to make an (unsolicited) point of your own.
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    (Original post by Actaeon)
    I'm not sure the 9000 people that Deutsche Bank employ in the UK care particularly where the bank is officially based, so long as their jobs remain in Britain. The point of today's news story was to indicate that the bank is considering whether to move a number of those jobs back to Germany if Britain left the UK.
    So Deutsche Bank's threat is to fire 9,000 people, 0.03% of the British workforce.

    How much are they going to pay those guys to live in Frankfurt instead of Belgravia?
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    (Original post by TheTechN1304)
    We don't need the EU to be a successful country. Take a look at Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and use those as examples.
    All are difficult to compare to the UK, economically speaking.

    Also, I wouldn't call Iceland 'successful' - they developed a finance sector which bankrupted them in the course of about a decade.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    So Deutsche Bank's threat is to fire 9,000 people, 0.03% of the British workforce.

    How much are they going to pay those guys to live in Frankfurt instead of Belgravia?
    No, they're probably not going to fire their entire British workforce. At the moment they're just looking into whether they should move some of those jobs to Germany, the total number could be anything really.
    The question is whether other major financial institutions would follow suit, which could lead to thousands of job losses, which is certainly not insignificant given how much we're dependent on the financial sector.
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    Undecided at this stage but will likely vote out. As others have stated, the majority of benefits from the EU we can have without actually being a part of it. There is no real reason why we need to be part of a political union. As the EU further pursues it's obsessive goal of integration at all costs, I think the UK is too different historically, economically, socially and culturally for it to work.

    After all, who wants to be part of the world's fastest shrinking/collapsing trading bloc anyway. The money is in the emerging markets and the way to get optimal free trade deals for the UK with those nations is not through a collapsing trading bloc and epically failing political union that ruins individual countries by applying consistent monetary policy across countries which are not suited to it with record levels of unemployment. No thanks.

    You have to ask yourself: if the EU was proposed to you today as a fresh, brand new idea - would you accept it? I suspect not.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    But is there more money for them?
    Why wouldn't there be more money for them if Businesses set up within the EU?

    That means more tax, more jobs and etc


    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Why haven't they done this already then?.
    Because the Britain is more economically and politically powerful than Ireland. There is also better infrastructure here. However, I doubt that makes much of a difference if they are outside of the EU.

    There is a reason why Osbourne wants to lower the Corp tax. It isn't that competitive as it stands anyway.


    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Pray tell why the EU would impose significant tariffs and we won't?

    There is also a thread I made a bit back basically asking people to defend this whole argument, nobody seemed willing to step up to the plate.
    We might do. It just means higher consumer goods prices.
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    (Original post by TurboCretin)
    All are difficult to compare to the UK, economically speaking.

    Also, I wouldn't call Iceland 'successful' - they developed a finance sector which bankrupted them in the course of about a decade.
    Iceland is an underrated success story. Their recession bit very deep, but didn't last long, and they bounced back stronger than anyone else.

    Most of the Eurozone would do just about anything to have $45k GDPPC, 4% unemployment, and 2% growth, like Iceland. They're doing better even than Germany.
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    (Original post by Actaeon)
    No, they're probably not going to fire their entire British workforce. At the moment they're just looking into whether they should move some of those jobs to Germany, the total number could be anything really.
    The question is whether other major financial institutions would follow suit, which could lead to thousands of job losses, which is certainly not insignificant given how much we're dependent on the financial sector.
    Right, so "Banks will all quit, leaving us bankrupt !!" turns quickly into, "Foreign-domiciled bank might launch internal review into long term staffing distribution between offices.".

    Snore.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    How do you believe they will do this?

    Be careful how you answer. If you believe that Britain loses from importing and wins from exporting, then for the EU to punish Britain they would have to hurt themselves far more than they would hurt us, since we import much more from them than they import from us. Fine, but that would suggest that their economies will shrink more than ours will due to any Brexit, whereas you have been predicting the opposite. On the other hand, if you believe Britain wins from importing and loses from exporting, why should we care that export industries like Mini might leave?
    If you don't understand why it is important to keep industries such as Car Manufactures and etc then maybe you shouldn't bother with this discussion.

    As I stated before, Businesses will move to the EU and some are already planning to do. So the short term of loss of the trade imbalance will eventually be offset.


    (Original post by Observatory)
    The point you are missing is that empirically the prosperity of countries is determined almost entirely by own institutions, not trade arrangements. When Singapore began its growth it was a tiny market - smaller than Wales in every dimension - but today it is more productive than any state in Europe.
    Not really. Singapore is a tiny city state based around Finance. That is it. Britain will never be like that.


    (Original post by Observatory)
    This is the unique and insular perspective of the British europhile. The French and Germans do not consider integration to be some kind of cost they are paying in exchange for various trade benefits. They consider European integration an end in and of itself and are generally ambivalent at best to trade liberalisation.
    .
    Ok, even if your oversimplification of the German/French position was correct, then change the country to Italy or Spain or whatever. It makes no difference.




    (Original post by Observatory)
    It seems you are not defending L i b's point, just inserting yourself into our discussion to make an (unsolicited) point of your own.
    No. I was saying the comparison to a Free Trade deal with S.Korea was stupid because it will never happen here.

    If you think that it is unsolicited then don't answer it.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Right, so "Banks will all quit, leaving us bankrupt !!" turns quickly into, "Foreign-domiciled bank might launch internal review into long term staffing distribution between offices.".

    Snore.
    Exactly! No-one was suggesting that the "Banks will all quit", but a lot of people are talking about the potential of the sector being downsized to some degree. Whether or not that will happen, and to what extent, I wouldn't know.
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    (Original post by will2348)
    Undecided at this stage but will likely vote out. As others have stated, the majority of benefits from the EU we can have without actually being a part of it. There is no real reason why we need to be part of a political union. As the EU further pursues it's obsessive goal of integration at all costs, I think the UK is too different historically, economically, socially and culturally for it to work.

    After all, who wants to be part of the world's fastest shrinking/collapsing trading bloc anyway. The money is in the emerging markets and the way to get optimal free trade deals for the UK with those nations is not through a collapsing trading bloc and epically failing political union that ruins individual countries by applying consistent monetary policy across countries which are not suited to it with record levels of unemployment. No thanks.

    You have to ask yourself: if the EU was proposed to you today as a fresh, brand new idea - would you accept it? I suspect not.

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    Who wants to be part of the World's largest and richest Single Market?

    Our exports of services have more than doubled to the EU over the past Ten years despite a major recession.

    Emerging markets are not going to replace the EU anytime soon for Britain.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Why wouldn't there be more money for them if Businesses set up within the EU?

    That means more tax, more jobs and etc
    You didn't answer the question.




    Because the Britain is more economically and politically powerful than Ireland. There is also better infrastructure here. However, I doubt that makes much of a difference if they are outside of the EU.

    There is a reason why Osbourne wants to lower the Corp tax. It isn't that competitive as it stands anyway.
    So suddenly by leaving the EU Ireland will be more powerful politically and economically? What a joke.

    And no, it's not that competitive, but at the same time we don't need to be as competitive because of other perks to bring in the UK. Need to check the source and what our actually means, but locally we have one of the lowest rates of competition in the world.



    We might do. It just means higher consumer goods prices.
    And a mix of three things: lower taxes, higher public spending and a smaller deficit/larger surplus


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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You didn't answer the question.
    I did.... more taxes, more jobs, and etc for EU Countries as businesses move into the EU for the lower tariffs and larger market.

    That equals more money.


    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So suddenly by leaving the EU Ireland will be more powerful politically and economically? What a joke.
    I didn't say that. So don't make things up.

    You asked why they haven't moved at the moment and I gave that answer.

    Once, you are outside of the EU and the tariffs are up then Ireland is an easy option to avoid that. France is another. Germany is another and etc.

    That doesn't mean that Ireland becomes more powerful.



    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And a mix of three things: lower taxes, higher public spending and a smaller deficit/larger surplus


    Posted from TSR Mobile
    I am not quite sure how you reached that conclusion. I could quite easily say the opposite.
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    I am undecided I would like to say 'out' because of the cost to our country and all the laws we have forced upon us. But the ease of not needing visa get into different member countries etc which is good. Without having all of the pros and cons of staying and leaving which are truthful not just exaggerated/made up then people would be able to make a much more informed and better choice
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    (Original post by scorpion95)
    I am undecided I would like to say 'out' because of the cost to our country and all the laws we have forced upon us. But the ease of not needing visa get into different member countries etc which is good. Without having all of the pros and cons of staying and leaving which are truthful not just exaggerated/made up then people would be able to make a much more informed and better choice
    You most probably wouldn't need visas anyway

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    (Original post by Observatory)
    That is an argument from specific circumstances. It might be that the EU decides to punish Britain; on the other hand, Britain has a large net trade deficit with the EU, so if you believe protectionists the EU would be mainly hurting itself and benefiting us by doing so.

    However what L i b said was not an argument from specific circumstances. He said that a free trade agreement intrinsically requires a submission of sovereignty on par with that required by the EU, and so no better arrangement was possible even principle. I said that the example of South Korea shows that that is, to put it mildly, dramatically overstated.
    I suspect that rather than punishing us, the decider will be whether the pro-capitalism block (Germany, Netherlands ect..) is able to persuade the 'satisfied with protectionism' block containing the likes of France, Italy and after the Spanish elections, Spain.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Iceland is an underrated success story. Their recession bit very deep, but didn't last long, and they bounced back stronger than anyone else.

    Most of the Eurozone would do just about anything to have $45k GDPPC, 4% unemployment, and 2% growth, like Iceland. They're doing better even than Germany.
    I think it's important to qualify that Iceland defaulted and avoided severe austerity as a result. That's not an option for larger economies given how much of each others debt we all own.

    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You most probably wouldn't need visas anyway

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    While i'd like us to keep free movement from current EU members, it's highly likely that an out vote would mean a victory for the low immigration lobby and that would likely mean visas in Europe.
 
 
 

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