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    (Original post by Codetto)
    You don't even need to go into that depth of analysis. Doctors use science and therefore are able to diagnose illness with a lot greater accuracy than economists which try and extrapolate current data using simplistic models and theory which try to (and more often than not incorrectly) predict future outcome.
    Sure.

    (I'm aware my post had little or no merit and was unfair to doctors but I'm hot headed at times )
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Lots of warnings coming through now about the economy. The Bank of England is widely forecast to be cutting rates shortly, from the already-low 0.5% (once they've done this cut, that method of stimulating the economy will be fully exhausted) - the all-important Service PMI (which predicts what services are going to buy) is sharply down and many economists are predicting a recession.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-faces-higher/

    So much for all the lies from the Brexiteers about everything looking much better than Remainers said it would. In fact, if anything, it's looking worse.
    that good for me gold will go sky high and everyone will flood the market emptying family heirlooms and unworn piece into my furnace
    spread this more and I'll have a couple more watches before this year ends maybe my Aston too
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    If the economy was performing at a state similar to the late 1950s or the great depression then I'd be worried, but really all you're saying here is that we might get a recession that would be the worst since the last recession we had. When we were in the EU.
    That's great for the millions on the breadline for who a recession would be devastating. An unnecessary recession could cause a lot of damage.
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    That's great for the millions on the breadline for who a recession would be devastating. An unnecessary recession could cause a lot of damage.
    Of course a recession would be devasting to the very poorest. That's not really the point. I was just pointing out what you said is like saying 'it was England's worst loss since the last time they lost.'
    And how is it unnecessary? I know Remain like to condescendingly imagine all Leave voters are gullible idiots, but the reality is the majority of us understood there would be short term financial instability but voted Leave anyway, believing it to be worth it. It's arguably self-inflicted but it's not unnecessary if it's a required part of an intended process.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    Of course a recession would be devasting to the very poorest. That's not really the point. I was just pointing out what you said is like saying 'it was England's worst loss since the last time they lost.'
    And how is it unnecessary? I know Remain like to condescendingly imagine all Leave voters are gullible idiots, but the reality is the majority of us understood there would be short term financial instability but voted Leave anyway, believing it to be worth it. It's arguably self-inflicted but it's not unnecessary if it's a required part of an intended process.
    It's unnecessary as in we were doing fine while in the EU. Maybe we will be better off in 10 years who knows.

    You say a recession is devastating but you then compare it losing a football match? I'm not really sure you understand what happens during recessions. Especially for younger people, those well off can manage it but evidence shows that when you suffer it when young the consequences stay for a very long time in loss of earnings, productivity and self worth.
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    I think Britain is going to enter a recession, not to mention the Brexiteers have kinda overlooked a lot:

    1. There's increased immigration now, since people are coming to claim citizenship while they still can, since there's a possibility they can't in future.

    2. Britain sorely needs the immigrants for them to pour cash into the economy, as well as help run and start businesses.

    For example, as a Canadian, Brexit is great for me since my savings are now worth so much more here. Britain wants my money.

    But in all seriousness Britain won't leave the EU, and instead "leave" the political union, and join the trade union, which has to pay membership fees and have free movement of people, without any political representation in the EU parliament.

    GG Britain.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    Of course a recession would be devasting to the very poorest. That's not really the point. I was just pointing out what you said is like saying 'it was England's worst loss since the last time they lost.'
    And how is it unnecessary? I know Remain like to condescendingly imagine all Leave voters are gullible idiots, but the reality is the majority of us understood there would be short term financial instability but voted Leave anyway, believing it to be worth it. It's arguably self-inflicted but it's not unnecessary if it's a required part of an intended process.
    It isn't just the very poorest who suffer in recessions. Deep recessions can cause big spikes in unemployment, pushing a lot of paid people below the poverty line. This was moderated since 2008, but only by knocking 10% off general real incomes for large groups of paid workers.

    For sure not all Leave voters were gullible idiots, but enough must have been for the reactionary elements in the hedge funds and offshored oligarchs who were the main backers of Leave to cynically conclude that they could fool them into supporting their agenda, which has precious little to do with the wellbeing of the majority.
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    (Original post by skeptical_john)
    It's unnecessary as in we were doing fine while in the EU. Maybe we will be better off in 10 years who knows.

    You say a recession is devastating but you then compare it losing a football match? I'm not really sure you understand what happens during recessions. Especially for younger people, those well off can manage it but evidence shows that when you suffer it when young the consequences stay for a very long time in loss of earnings, productivity and self worth.
    We were doing fine in spite of being in the EU, there's a big difference.

    Stop being so delicate and going out of your way to find things to get offended by. I was pointing out that saying an event is the worst one to happen since the last time the event happened gives no actual indication as to how bad it is in the relative scheme of things. Another analogy- 'this is the worst storm since the last time there was a storm.'
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    (Original post by moggis)
    So far as the comment in the last box is concerned there really is some truth in it.edit well obviously experts do know a lot of things. But all those things they know often leads them to believe they are infallible and other problems that seeing things from up close can bring.

    Whenever the predictions of so called 'experts' in certain fields have been scrutinised it's often been found that a troop of monkeys could have come up with similar results by 'guessing'.

    Expert opinions in general really are held in too high esteem I and others believe.

    How would you or anyone like it if your child died in their sleep and some ******* expert in court said you must have killed it?

    That actually happened.And the poor woman went to prison.

    In the case of doctors ,don't make me laugh. Read the book,Bodies by Jed Mercurio.Ok that's fiction but there's some truth in much fiction and I understand this book has some truth in it.

    Doctors make many many mistakes. But guess what? A) One of the reasons they make mistakes is because lesser staff are scared to question the expert doctor.
    B) Experts are often arrogant and are loathe to admit mistakes
    C) There's almost certainly a c

    I don't wish to offend anyone but I'm passionate about the subject of experts.

    The politest thing I can say I think is that I definitely knock a few % points off my estimation of the IQ of someone who is otherwise intelligent but who blindly follows the advice of experts .
    It's a cartoon!
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    It isn't just the very poorest who suffer in recessions. Deep recessions can cause big spikes in unemployment, pushing a lot of paid people below the poverty line. This was moderated since 2008, but only by knocking 10% off general real incomes for large groups of paid workers.

    For sure not all Leave voters were gullible idiots, but enough must have been for the reactionary elements in the hedge funds and offshored oligarchs who were the main backers of Leave to cynically conclude that they could fool them into supporting their agenda, which has precious little to do with the wellbeing of the majority.
    I was using very poorest vaguely but yes I agree with your first point.
    Not so much with the second however. The VAST majority of financial institutions, including hedge funds supported Remain. The rich power brokers and 'offshore oligarchs' supported Remain. The 'establishment' of shady powerful people that you often rant about oppressing us plebs all supported Remain. You can't label people, in this case Leave voters, who refused to be swayed by outside propaganda and pressure as being gullible. Stubborn, yes, but not gullible. Remain certainly fits that bill though.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    I was using very poorest vaguely but yes I agree with your first point.
    Not so much with the second however. The VAST majority of financial institutions, including hedge funds supported Remain. The rich power brokers and 'offshore oligarchs' supported Remain. The 'establishment' of shady powerful people that you often rant about oppressing us plebs all supported Remain. You can't label people, in this case Leave voters, who refused to be swayed by outside propaganda and pressure as being gullible. Stubborn, yes, but not gullible. Remain certainly fits that bill though.
    I suppose Rupert Murdoch, the Barclays and Lord Dacre are too minor to appear in your list of offshored oligarchs who supported Leave? :holmes:

    Then we come to the hedge funds - what was it that billionaire bankroller of Leave said just before the result? "We want there to be chaos" - something like that?

    We won't even get started on Farage, running it from his luxury pad outside Brussels and keeping his MEP job going indefinitely after the fact.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I suppose Rupert Murdoch, the Barclays and Lord Dacre are too minor to appear in your list of offshored oligarchs who supported Leave? :holmes:

    Then we come to the hedge funds - what was it that billionaire bankroller of Leave said just before the result? "We want there to be chaos" - something like that?

    We won't even get started on Farage, running it from his luxury pad outside Brussels and keeping his MEP job going indefinitely after the fact.
    I seriously hope someone as intelligent as you isn't actually suggesting that these four cherry-picked examples somehow proves your point. If you want to have a name dropping exercise of the rich and powerful I can guarantee you my list will be a lot, lot longer.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to prove with Farage is either. I don't believe anyone ever suggested or believed that if Leave won the referendum all UKIP MEPs would resign the next day or just stop doing their jobs.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    I seriously hope someone as intelligent as you isn't actually suggesting that these four cherry-picked examples somehow proves your point. If you want to have a name dropping exercise of the rich and powerful I can guarantee you my list will be a lot, lot longer.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to prove with Farage is either. I don't believe anyone ever suggested or believed that if Leave won the referendum all UKIP MEPs would resign the next day or just stop doing their jobs.
    Yes, it's just a total absurdity of mine to pick the oligarchs who run about 2/3 of Britain's mass media. Silly me.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    all-important Service PMI .
    A poor predictor at the best of times, even worse when those who take the survey are currently throwing their toys out of the pram, the data really is absurd as it suggested a 4% contraction in GDP in less than a month.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    A poor predictor at the best of times, even worse when those who take the survey are currently throwing their toys out of the pram, the data really is absurd as it suggested a 4% contraction in GDP in less than a month.
    bro, you can't say that... It's against remain agenda and therefore must be discarded immediately.
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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    I seriously hope someone as intelligent as you isn't actually suggesting that these four cherry-picked examples somehow proves your point. If you want to have a name dropping exercise of the rich and powerful I can guarantee you my list will be a lot, lot longer.
    I'm not sure what point you're trying to prove with Farage is either. I don't believe anyone ever suggested or believed that if Leave won the referendum all UKIP MEPs would resign the next day or just stop doing their jobs.
    I think the point is that the leave campaign tried to make out they were this anti establishment movement despite being full of and led by establishment figures.

    A movement spearheaded by the former Etonian Mayor of London, the Lord Chancellor and the owners of Britain's largest papers can hardly be described as anti establishment.

    I don't like how the leave camp played the 'little guy' card.

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    (Original post by pol pot noodles)
    It is looking much better.
    Remainers were predicting the apocalypse. Every major multinational corporation was to have relocated elsewhere, the banks were going to move to Frankfurt, the rest of the world was going to shun us, no one would trade with us, the union would disintegrate and the economy was going to implode.
    Short term financial instability was entirely expected, so frankly this is both in line with general Leave predictions and still much better than what Remainers said would happen. If the economy stagnates or declines over the next five-ten years then you'd have an argument.
    To be fair, that's exactly the argument that a lot of conservative and UKIP voters make if someone suggests raising taxes, the minimum wage or clamping down on tax avoidance.

    'if we do that every business will flock overnight' etc

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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    To be fair, that's exactly the argument that a lot of conservative and UKIP voters make if someone suggests raising taxes, the minimum wage or clamping down on tax avoidance.

    'if we do that every business will flock overnight' etc

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    I mean, it's not like there is empirical evidence that increasing taxes doesn't help or anything...

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I mean, it's not like there is empirical evidence that increasing taxes doesn't help or anything...

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    If you ideologically want lower taxes fair enough but let's not pretend that having.increidbly low tax rates raises more money than having medium tax rates.


    Before Blair brought in the minimum wage there was huge scaremongering from the tories about how businesses would relocate. It didn't happen and now the tories have increased it too.

    Before Osborne increased it there was scarmeongering yet again fears were unfounded.


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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    If you ideologically want lower taxes fair enough but let's not pretend that having.increidbly low tax rates raises more money than having medium tax rates.


    Before Blair brought in the minimum wage there was huge scaremongering from the tories about how businesses would relocate. It didn't happen and now the tories have increased it too.

    Before Osborne increased it there was scarmeongering yet again fears were unfounded.


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    There is empirical evidence that the minimum wage harms jobs, even the government admits it.

    Pretty much every country has a peak tax revenue, for the the UK it's in the high 30s for percentage of GDP, in the US it's about 19% federally and I imagine similar again state. It doesn't matter whether you set taxes super high or just high enough to hit that limit, it is still there. The thing is just high enough will be better for the economy.

    Fact of the matter is the 35% federal corporation tax in the US is making so many businesses want to leave.

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