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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    The nobel prize for economics was created in 1969 and has been awarded every year since.... They are hardly going to stop doing it. There has however been a lot of criticism of awarding nobel prizes in economics. You can find a professional forecaster to back up almost any forecast on the economy, the fact that there is no universal agreement means economics is no more a science than any of the arts subjects like sociology.

    So, are you actually going to provide any evidence that economists have greater accuracy than non-professional forcasters? This is your last chance. You can use any sources you please, but if you fail to reply with an actually respected book or paper then I will assume you know you are defending economics purely out of personal bias and denying my argument because of cognitive dissonance. Good luck.
    No I'm on your side, I think it's a conspiracy by the MAN, trying to keep us quiet.

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    (Original post by chefdave)
    He's being a tad optimistic, all countries within the Eurozone are now at serious risk of default because the EU is intent on socialising sovereign debt. Not only have they been stuffing more money into the pockets of the hapless Greeks they're also coercing the German's into acting as their unofficial guarantor, something that hasn't exactly gone down well with the German people, especially as the Greeks don't want to pay any tax.

    Imo the Euro could have been saved if they just allowed the heavily indebted nations to go bust, Greece et al could have remained in the Euro but the people who lent them money would have lost out. Tough cookies. But the European Commission are so vain and self serving they'd rather keep bailing, jeopardising the fate of the entire Eurozone just so they can save a bit of face and pretend they were right all along.

    You only have to briefly listen to Barroso to realise that he's a power crazed nut.
    I disagree with the optimism. The problem is that there are many tiers to the Euro with default prompting a bottom up explosion. In that reagrd, provided that Greece and Portugal are good, Italy and Spain will be good.

    Right now i would say that there is less than a 50% chance of Portugal and Greece defaulting because Germany has made it clear that it will prop them up as long as it takes.

    As for your second point, it is all about political manouvering. The Eurozone has always been the stepping stone to a political union and as a result it is hardly suprising that greater intergration is now on the cards.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I disagree with the optimism. The problem is that there are many tiers to the Euro with default prompting a bottom up explosion. In that reagrd, provided that Greece and Portugal are good, Italy and Spain will be good.

    Right now i would say that there is less than a 50% chance of Portugal and Greece defaulting because Germany has made it clear that it will prop them up as long as it takes.

    As for your second point, it is all about political manouvering. The Eurozone has always been the stepping stone to a political union and as a result it is hardly suprising that greater intergration is now on the cards.
    No.

    The EU Bailout fund is now 590 billion and germany said it won`t contribute any more after the recent tranche than 211 billion.
    The markets want to see the bailout fund raised to 1500 billion, btw
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I disagree with the optimism. The problem is that there are many tiers to the Euro with default prompting a bottom up explosion. In that reagrd, provided that Greece and Portugal are good, Italy and Spain will be good.

    Right now i would say that there is less than a 50% chance of Portugal and Greece defaulting because Germany has made it clear that it will prop them up as long as it takes.

    As for your second point, it is all about political manouvering. The Eurozone has always been the stepping stone to a political union and as a result it is hardly suprising that greater intergration is now on the cards.

    Well only last week the professionals were pricing in Greece's chance of default at 100%, and these guys are trading European bonds day in, day out. The main problem is that the only tool the ECB/EU/IMF have at their disposal is the ability to lend Greece more money, this pushes up total interest payments and backs the Greek government into an ever tighter corner.

    There's no way back now anyway as the mask has slipped. The EU has exposed itself as an anti-democratic organisation intent on empire building and the European people simply won't accept it for much longer. Even it's traditional supporters on the left are slowly waking up to the fact that it's an expensive and pointless waste of money.

    It can't be long now.
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    (Original post by chefdave)
    Well only last week the professionals were pricing in Greece's chance of default at 100%, and these guys are trading European bonds day in, day out. The main problem is that the only tool the ECB/EU/IMF have at their disposal is the ability to lend Greece more money, this pushes up total interest payments and backs the Greek government into an ever tighter corner.

    There's no way back now anyway as the mask has slipped. The EU has exposed itself as an anti-democratic organisation intent on empire building and the European people simply won't accept it for much longer. Even it's traditional supporters on the left are slowly waking up to the fact that it's an expensive and pointless waste of money.

    It can't be long now.
    Let's keep the euro alive!
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    (Original post by yoyo462001)
    No I'm on your side, I think it's a conspiracy by the MAN, trying to keep us quiet.

    Haha, why not just admit you lost? You studied, and currently work in, a completely false and redundant 'science'. I'm glad you didn't accept the gauntlet thrown down by me - prove using statistical evidence that economists are capable of predicting future events, because it proves you can't

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    (Original post by DYKWIA)
    If europe takes the US down with it, I'm gonna be mad...

    Europe, in future please spend your money more wisely.
    All I have to say to that is:

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA


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    Wouldn't be surprised at all if that happened. Just look at Greece and Ireland.

    Very interesting, and if you understand it, humorous:
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    (Original post by Miss_Scarlett)
    All I have to say to that is:

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHA


    Europe's addiction to spending, yet not producing has dragged our economy under. It's not funny, it's irritating.
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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    Haha, why not just admit you lost? You studied, and currently work in, a completely false and redundant 'science'. I'm glad you didn't accept the gauntlet thrown down by me - prove using statistical evidence that economists are capable of predicting future events, because it proves you can't

    I don't think you understand, we've just uncovered a conspiracy of a generation, I'm on hold with the president as we speak!

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    Just print more money innit :teeth:
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    (Original post by jermaindefoe)
    Just print more money innit :teeth:
    Thats the plan, looks like it'll start again before the year is out.
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    (Original post by yoyo462001)
    I don't think you understand, we've just uncovered a conspiracy of a generation, I'm on hold with the president as we speak!

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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    The president wants to know whether you want your reward in rubels or dollars
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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    Haha, why not just admit you lost? You studied, and currently work in, a completely false and redundant 'science'. I'm glad you didn't accept the gauntlet thrown down by me - prove using statistical evidence that economists are capable of predicting future events, because it proves you can't

    I offered you evidence a couple of posts back!

    I sort of agree though, the majority of economists are effing useless. Their gameplan seems to be to promote junk science and when it goes wrong tap the gov't up for more cash so they can continue their research. It's a great wheeze.

    Even Alan Greenspan - formerly the world's most powerful banker and economist admitted in his autobiography that his "models" were wrong. In other words conventional economic theory is unable to help forecast the business cycle.
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    (Original post by chefdave)
    I offered you evidence a couple of posts back!

    I sort of agree though, the majority of economists are effing useless. Their gameplan seems to be to promote junk science and when it goes wrong tap the gov't up for more cash so they can continue their research. It's a great wheeze.

    Even Alan Greenspan - formerly the world's most powerful banker and economist admitted in his autobiography that his "models" were wrong. In other words conventional economic theory is unable to help forecast the business cycle.
    Sorry I didn't see it, can you point me towards it please? Unlike yoyo I am more than happy to change or modify my opinion in the light of evidence. I am in agreement with pretty much everything you've said here.
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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    Sorry I didn't see it, can you point me towards it please? Unlike yoyo I am more than happy to change or modify my opinion in the light of evidence. I am in agreement with pretty much everything you've said here.
    No problem, here's the link again;

    http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...oom---but-when

    He also sent a paper to the incoming gov't in 97 telling them what was going to happen and when, the website has been changed though recently so might need a bit of digging out.
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    (Original post by chefdave)
    No problem, here's the link again;

    http://www.moneyweek.com/investments...oom---but-when

    He also sent a paper to the incoming gov't in 97 telling them what was going to happen and when, the website has been changed though recently so might need a bit of digging out.
    O I see. Are you trying to say that because some economists manage to accurately predict timelines or events there is some merit to their activities? It seems to me that if there are hundreds of thousands of economists out there churning out predictions on a daily basis, some will always be right. However, they are not right in large enough numbers - especially to benefit us or businesses.
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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    O I see. Are you trying to say that because some economists manage to accurately predict timelines or events there is some merit to their activities? It seems to me that if there are hundreds of thousands of economists out there churning out predictions on a daily basis, some will always be right. However, they are not right in large enough numbers - especially to benefit us or businesses.
    Yes that's exactly what I'm saying, if some economists have a history of making very accurate predictions years in advance they must know something that others are unaware of. Fred Harrison would have made anyone that listened to him a fortune between 1997 and now if they followed his advice and invested in the housing market before selling up and buying gold with the proceeds in around 2006/7.

    His prediction wasn't a lucky guess, there are basic economic principles at work that most economists do their damned best to hide from the public. It's not rocket science though, these principles are so simple that even your average uni graduate should be able to make sense of them!
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    (Original post by chefdave)
    Yes that's exactly what I'm saying, if some economists have a history of making very accurate predictions years in advance they must know something that others are unaware of. Fred Harrison would have made anyone that listened to him a fortune between 1997 and now if they followed his advice and invested in the housing market before selling up and buying gold with the proceeds in around 2006/7.

    His prediction wasn't a lucky guess, there are basic economic principles at work that most economists do their damned best to hide from the public. It's not rocket science though, these principles are so simple that even your average uni graduate should be able to make sense of them!
    Not really though... if you had 100,000 people flipping a coin constantly all year one of them is eventually going to get streaks of heads or streaks of tails. If there were sound and easy to follow principles underpinning the randomness of the economy do you not think that at least 10% of economists would be Tony Harrison?
 
 
 
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