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Are Remainers too cocky and what do you think the result will be? Watch

  • View Poll Results: What will be the likely % vote share of Leave?
    Under 25
    6
    3.85%
    25 - 30
    3
    1.92%
    31 - 35
    6
    3.85%
    36 - 40
    10
    6.41%
    41 - 45
    35
    22.44%
    46 - 50
    48
    30.77%
    51 - 55
    39
    25.00%
    56 - 60
    5
    3.21%
    61 - 65
    0
    0%
    Over 65
    4
    2.56%

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    If we leave I expect an improvement to the UK and I don't want to be let down by vote leave for promising things that we might not get.
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    (Original post by AxSirlotl)
    If we leave I expect an improvement to the UK and I don't want to be let down by vote leave for promising things that we might not get.
    Like what?
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Nope, except where there is an error, it's the GE rules so Irish, British, or Commonwealth.
    With one exception. British citizens resident in Gibraltar can vote in the referendum even if they haven't previously been resident in the UK within the last 15 years.

    I've just thought of another exception. Peers who are members of the House of Lords get a vote as they do in local and EU elections by not Parliamentary elections.
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    (Original post by Millie-3)
    You lot seem pretty educated on this stuff so tell me, how true is it that if we remain, the EU will force all member nations' armed forces to join together in a super-army? And that the EU would only tell us of this after the referendum?

    I've heard both sides, that it is imminent for the EU to pull this evil dictator move, but also that this is just scaremongering to frighten Brits into leaving. Which is it??
    More of the usual lies and scare mongering. We alone could block it if it were attempted, and there would automatically be a referendum on it.

    So there's 0% chance of it happening until we explicitly vote for it to happen.

    That said, I don't see why people are pretending this is some fascist move and the EU is trying to take over the world. We're already a member of NATO, which is pretty much exactly the same thing.
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    (Original post by Millie-3)
    You lot seem pretty educated on this stuff so tell me, how true is it that if we remain, the EU will force all member nations' armed forces to join together in a super-army? And that the EU would only tell us of this after the referendum?

    I've heard both sides, that it is imminent for the EU to pull this evil dictator move, but also that this is just scaremongering to frighten Brits into leaving. Which is it??
    There is no compulsion on a Euro-army. One may be created amongst willing states but it is very unlikely that the Commission ie the Eurocrats rather than the Council ie the PMs/Defence Ministers of the member states will get control of it. The existing Eurocorps (of which we are not a part) and the EU Battlegroup (of which we are) are not under the command of the Commission.

    The idea that this and other things will only be revealed after a referendum is a classic conspiracy theory. It means that Leave campaigners can make up anything and when asked for evidence, say that it will only be revealed after the referendum.
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    (Original post by JordanL_)
    We're already a member of NATO, which is pretty much exactly the same thing.
    If it was pretty much exactly the same thing it wouldn't be on the table at all.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Like what?
    A noticeable improvement to our NHS considering that around £13 billion goes to the EU each year. More availability to jobs since immigration would be reduced as we're 'taking control'. Maintaining protection of groups such as workers and maternity leave and just a general improvement to the British economy as Vote Leave is promising. I would vote leave if I was over 18 and if I knew that what they were promising would happen (I suppose that's the same with every political decision).
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    (Original post by AxSirlotl)
    A noticeable improvement to our NHS considering that around £13 billion goes to the EU each year. More availability to jobs since immigration would be reduced as we're 'taking control'. Maintaining protection of groups such as workers and maternity leave and just a general improvement to the British economy as Vote Leave is promising. I would vote leave if I was over 18 and if I knew that what they were promising would happen (I suppose that's the same with every political decision).
    Lol. It isn't 13 billion. It is barely half of that.

    Record low employment. Doesn't look like we need any help lowering employment. Companies will leave the UK leading to an increase in unemployment.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Lol. It isn't 13 billion. It is barely half of that.

    Record low employment. Doesn't look like we need any help lowering employment. Companies will leave the UK leading to an increase in unemployment.
    I know that we get a lot of that back, just the leave campaign makes it sound like life will be so much better outside of the EU, and should we take this chance or not? I don't know.
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    Considering polls and betting odds, I would guess between 54-56 percent of votes are to stay(so 46-48 leave).
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    (Original post by AxSirlotl)
    I know that we get a lot of that back, just the leave campaign makes it sound like life will be so much better outside of the EU, and should we take this chance or not? I don't know.
    If you don't know whether you should take the chance and gamble, It's generally not worth doing so
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    (Original post by AxSirlotl)
    I know that we get a lot of that back, just the leave campaign makes it sound like life will be so much better outside of the EU, and should we take this chance or not? I don't know.
    Well, they don't know either. They know the short term effects will be bad. That means significant jobs lost. That is why all of the Brexit posters will talk about the long term without any specifics. That is the reason why the pound is crashing.

    The question is whether you hate immigration enough to leave the EU and when then the leave campaign cannot guarantee lower immigration levels with an Australian style system.

    There are serious questions about the EU with regards to CAP and the Fisheries. However, that isn't going to change by leaving.
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    (Original post by Aydin7)
    If you don't know whether you should take the chance and gamble, It's generally not worth doing so
    That is like saying you should Bet on a random Football match when you have no clue about either team. That is the insanity of the Brexit proposition.
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    (Original post by FredOrJohn)
    The bookies have it as about 70% chance of YES winning..
    These odds are pretty much based on what working class people up north place their bets on.
    So you know what they are going to vote already.
    I hope so.

    (Or they could be very pessimistic leavers)
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    That is like saying you should Bet on a random Football match when you have no clue about either team. That is the insanity of the Brexit proposition.
    To be clear, and I am in no way supporting leave (or remain), a remain vote is just as much of an unknown gamble, it just does not appear to be such because by voting remain the subconscious tells one that you are not making a real decision, you are merely running the status quo.

    If it is thought of more as someone standing in either lane in the road and a vehicle is approaching, but you are not sure which lane it will use, standing where you are and not moving has the same probability of being hit as moving to the other lane.

    So, either choice has a risk and frankly neither side has been convincing, I rate it as playing pontoon holding 15, there are six possible cards if I twist (leave) there are seven possible cards if I stick(remain), the tricky bit is I am unsure if the odds have been shaded by the cards already played and I have not got a clue what the dealer holds.
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    To be clear, and I am in no way supporting leave (or remain), a remain vote is just as much of an unknown gamble, it just does not appear to be such because by voting remain the subconscious tells one that you are not making a real decision, you are merely running the status quo.

    .
    Well, I don't see how you can reasonably call remain just as much of an unknown gamble. We have been part of the EU for 30 + years now. We can reasonably estimate what growth. immigration and employment barring a significant event.

    No country has ever left the EU, so what exactly happens outside is unknown. The only things that we can guarantee is a crash in the value of the pound and rise in unemployment. The good long term is simply a guess work on the basis of guessing that certain things will happen that no other country has ever managed to achieve before.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, I don't see how you can reasonably call remain just as much of an unknown gamble. We have been part of the EU for 30 + years now. We can reasonably estimate what growth. immigration and employment barring a significant event.

    No country has ever left the EU, so what exactly happens outside is unknown. The only things that we can guarantee is a crash in the value of the pound and rise in unemployment. The good long term is simply a guess work on the basis of guessing that certain things will happen that no other country has ever managed to achieve before.
    It is unknown as you cannot calculate the opportunity cost, remain keeps you to a degree as you are, but even that is ever changing and has risks. Leave may, or may not, open opportunities of which you are not aware.

    In any risk analysis re investment decisions you evaluate the outcomes top, bottom and middle and their probabilities, you resolve to calculate optimum result, if remain is more predictable its outcome range is possibly narrower, leave may be more volatile but possibly has a higher top outcome, we just do not know.

    Risk is not just preventing a drop in living standards risk is foregoing an increase, but humans always look to the downside, we more fear losing what we have than not gaining what we might.

    We have no range of outcomes for either, no probablities re outcomes for either, so we cannot really evaluate risk.

    Glad you can evaluate European growth, I cannot, I sit with some European investment trusts in my pension that have given little return so hope you are correct.

    There are lots of unknowns in Europe (as there are outwith) but familiarity with Europe makes people not see the remain risks, they blend into the comfortable background and stop being apparent and obvious so human nature discounts them, leave is fresh and new so our senses are more attuned to detect/consider risk.

    (I am still an undecided)
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    (Original post by DJKL)
    It is unknown as you cannot calculate the opportunity cost, remain keeps you to a degree as you are, but even that is ever changing and has risks. Leave may, or may not, open opportunities of which you are not aware.
    Lol. Quoting Yoda?

    (Original post by DJKL)
    In any risk analysis re investment decisions you evaluate the outcomes top, bottom and middle and their probabilities, you resolve to calculate optimum result, if remain is more predictable its outcome range is possibly narrower, leave may be more volatile but possibly has a higher top outcome, we just do not know.

    Risk is not just preventing a drop in living standards risk is foregoing an increase, but humans always look to the downside, we more fear losing what we have than not gaining what we might.

    We have no range of outcomes for either, no probablities re outcomes for either, so we cannot really evaluate risk.

    Glad you can evaluate European growth, I cannot, I sit with some European investment trusts in my pension that have given little return so hope you are correct.

    There are lots of unknowns in Europe (as there are outwith) but familiarity with Europe makes people not see the remain risks, they blend into the comfortable background and stop being apparent and obvious so human nature discounts them, leave is fresh and new so our senses are more attuned to detect/consider risk.

    (I am still an undecided)
    Well, the risks of Europe will always affect us whether we are inside or outside of the EU. Leaving the EU isn't going to significant diminish the effects of a European economic crisis and et
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    It seems that time and time again Bremainers are very certain that they will win by huge margins. Even with a sweep-stake in my workplace, some of the Bremainers seem to think Leave will struggle to get even 35%. Surely this must be overconfidence? If support was that low then why do poll and after poll show a very tight race (yes they may not be that accurate but surely not by as much as 15%). Also by taking into consideration leavers are more likely to vote is this overconfidence just cockiness or even ignorance to the real world? Could this cockiness even put bremainers off voting literally handing leavers the win?

    Also what do you think the result will actually be?
    You seem to be basing this judgement on a stereotypical image of Remainers. Are there not cocky people in the Brexit camp also? Well obviously some of them act like they will win by huge margins in public as it would not be good publicity for either side to say "yea, we won't win but vote for our side anyway." I think the vote will be in favour of remaining but it'll be tight - 54-55% in favour.
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    (Original post by DorianGrayism)
    Well, they don't know either. They know the short term effects will be bad. That means significant jobs lost. That is why all of the Brexit posters will talk about the long term without any specifics. That is the reason why the pound is crashing.

    The question is whether you hate immigration enough to leave the EU and when then the leave campaign cannot guarantee lower immigration levels with an Australian style system.

    There are serious questions about the EU with regards to CAP and the Fisheries. However, that isn't going to change by leaving.
    GBP/USD chart from exactly 5 years ago until today

 
 
 
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