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If the result is Leave, will we leave? watch

  • View Poll Results: After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...
    End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change
    37
    21.02%
    End up remaining but with some meaningful changes
    17
    9.66%
    Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change
    72
    40.91%
    Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically
    50
    28.41%

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You're making Cameron sound sensible

    Are you seriously saying the recession will be worse than in 2008 (about 10pc) or 1930s (20+PC)? Even the professional fear mongers put it at incredibly mild at worse. As for AAA being the only thing preventing bankruptcy, how about you talk to the Americans, or Chinese, or most of confidential Europe and see how they're getting on without their AAA rating, or even the likes of India on BBB.

    When it comes to saying integration will now stop, The blocking of the European Constitution, far more significant than this referendum, did nothing to slow it, other than a small setback, and you clearly don't understand the mindset of the Eurocrat.

    I'm also not quite sure you realise what this EU protectionism means. Protectionist policies are generally bad, and not only keep an uncompetitive industry uncompetitive, but also push those further down the supply chain to be uncompetitive, the end effect is a few job losses in a lot of sectors rather than a lot in one or two, you further get that the biggest burden is placed on the consumer.

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    Are you seriously questioning the possibility of such a bad recession? Dont be ridiculous, many economists have said its possible, An economist from LSE even said its possible. I think i'd take their word over yours. If we can't negotiate a deal, our trade costs will go very high which affects investment, all sorts of things. If we lose the AAA rating, they can easily ask for our debt to be returned, which in proportion is higher. I dont think you understand the importance of the rating.

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf - Pretty much debunks your entire argument.


    If you think the EU wont reform and this isnt a waking up call then that's just your own pessimism. I cant help you with that. the mindset of a eurocrat is irrelevant.

    No, clearly you dont understand the EU protectionism. Protectionism is bad? Tell that to America in the 1920s who had a far more aggressive policy and still succeeded. This comment is very generic tbh, its the same case with all trade blocs. It doesnt make it uncompetitive, it depends on the perspective. When businesses openly say the reason why they invest in the UK is access to the EU, i think that makes your argument pretty weak. Again, refer to the link.

    Oh, and cut the silly condescending tone, it's just obscuring your hollow argument.
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    (Original post by drogon)
    Are you seriously questioning the possibility of such a bad recession? Dont be ridiculous, many economists have said its possible, An economist from LSE even said its possible. I think i'd take their word over yours. If we can't negotiate a deal, our trade costs will go very high which affects investment, all sorts of things. If we lose the AAA rating, they can easily ask for our debt to be returned, which in proportion is higher. I dont think you understand the importance of the rating.

    http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/EA022.pdf - Pretty much debunks your entire argument.


    If you think the EU wont reform and this isnt a waking up call then that's just your own pessimism. I cant help you with that. the mindset of a eurocrat is irrelevant.

    No, clearly you dont understand the EU protectionism. Protectionism is bad? Tell that to America in the 1920s who had a far more aggressive policy and still succeeded. This comment is very generic tbh, its the same case with all trade blocs. It doesnt make it uncompetitive, it depends on the perspective. When businesses openly say the reason why they invest in the UK is access to the EU, i think that makes your argument pretty weak. Again, refer to the link.

    Oh, and cut the silly condescending tone, it's just obscuring your hollow argument.
    Ah, another "everything will go wrong if we leave and then everything will remain static, but if we stay we will get all these wonderful trade deals the EU are crap at negotiating" report. The criticisms are the same as most, they pit forwards the costs of leaving and avoid benefits like the plague.

    I also don't call it pessimism, I call it realism. If even when we had a lot more influence than today we couldn't reform the EU, why would be now? If we cannot get any real reform threatening to leave, why would we when we bind ourselves to the EU for a few more decades? How can we get reform when the people with the influence see the solution to all problems as more EU? To genuinely believe reform is realistic requires the abandoning of all logic and all knowledge of the history of the EU.

    Saying protectionism is standard in trade blocs, yea...no. Most trade blocs are as simple as free trade, not customs unions, certainly not political unions. We also we a very distinct difference between the world of today and the world of a century ago, globalisation is far far greater, trade is cheaper and countries are far more interdependent on each other than before, the idea that free trade is bad is an uncommon one, protectionism being good, just as uncommon

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    (Original post by Jfire)
    This is the Tories that we're talking about. They've not listened to the people yet, so why would they change things now. They'll probably spend a long time discussing some new plan to have trade with EU countries and it'll end up being the exact same thing as the EU is at the minute, so they'll either put in these new agreeements that are basically the EU in everything but name or realise it's the same as the EU and just stay.

    If anything, the only real difference might be that Mr. Cameron disappears....
    If Cameron goes after the referendum though, then the chances are we'll end up with a more Eurosceptic leader of the Conservatives, and as the change in leadership would only happen if we voted to leave, then we are almost certain to leave the EU after a period of negotiation thanks to the new leader of the party.
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    I'm a very decided 'Leave' voter, but I have no expectation of it actually happening, regardless of whether the public votes for an exit or not
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ah, another "everything will go wrong if we leave and then everything will remain static, but if we stay we will get all these wonderful trade deals the EU are crap at negotiating" report. The criticisms are the same as most, they pit forwards the costs of leaving and avoid benefits like the plague.

    I also don't call it pessimism, I call it realism. If even when we had a lot more influence than today we couldn't reform the EU, why would be now? If we cannot get any real reform threatening to leave, why would we when we bind ourselves to the EU for a few more decades? How can we get reform when the people with the influence see the solution to all problems as more EU? To genuinely believe reform is realistic requires the abandoning of all logic and all knowledge of the history of the EU.

    Saying protectionism is standard in trade blocs, yea...no. Most trade blocs are as simple as free trade, not customs unions, certainly not political unions. We also we a very distinct difference between the world of today and the world of a century ago, globalisation is far far greater, trade is cheaper and countries are far more interdependent on each other than before, the idea that free trade is bad is an uncommon one, protectionism being good, just as uncommon

    Posted from TSR Mobile
    Wait so i provided a full analysis of potential consequences and you chose to ignore it all and dismiss it? Great, you represent the typical mindset of a brexiter. If you're going to criticise the source, give me some solid reasons as to what is wrong with the methodology because as far as im concerned, its pretty rigorous.

    As i said, this referendum will be a wake up call for the EU. Furthermore much of these arguments are based on the premise that all of the EU laws arent in our favour or desirable to us. But truth is, once we leave we will still use similar laws.

    Dont be silly, there are trade blocs with custom unions. At the end of the day the single market is working and that's done been positive for this economy.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    You and other Leavers are being very naive about this. For example, you ignore key French politicians like Emmanuel Macron, Economics Minister, who is on record as saying that France will ditch the Le Touguet agreement on the event of a Leave vote.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-france-saying
    I am not being naive about anything, you are simply peddling nonsense.

    Your only source to back this up from the article I have given you is Macron, who, as The Guardian - an effectively unanimous supporter of Remain - well notes, is 'young, ambitious, a former banker and often at odds with his socialist colleagues, [who] may well - and not for the first time - have spoken out of turn'. The Guardian concludes their article by referencing a series of embarrassing incidents which have helped reinforce his reputation as an opportunistic loose cannon out to burn bridges for the sake of making a name for himself.

    Opposing him under the 'France's official position' header is the Interior Minister, who backs up the argument that revoking the current arrangements would simply inflame the problem for both sides, as well as the regional prefect and a 'senior French government source'. The fact that the President and Prime Minister have not issued personal comments on this major issue in our relations despite the harm it would do the Leave campaign is in itself demonstrative that they know the Calais border controls are not going anywhere. Certainly the opinions of these other senior figures is supportive of this conclusion in the context.

    The treaty only requires two years notice to cancel and anyway France has a long record of ripping up or ignoring international treaties a new government disagrees with - they would simply refuse to implement it properly.
    Such as?

    As senior government sources make clear they are not going to 'rip up' this arrangement because it would be contrary to their interests by attracting many more migrants to the French coast and because they would cause a major and mutually destructive diplomatic furore with a major trading partner. In the event of a Brexit, France would not have the opportunity, the means or the motive to pursue the course of action you are deceptively pushing as inevitable.
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    (Original post by drogon)
    Leaving the EU will inherently have large economic ramifications. As far as im concerned, a threat of a recession so bad that we will never recover to the current stage is bad enough. If we lose our AAA rating (which the EU stabilises) we'll go bankrupt. The EU won't continue to become more powerful, if anything this referendum is a wake up call that people are getting fed up.

    The same protectionist policies of the EU give protection to UK exports as well. Of course workers dont lobby the EU, the biggest problem with this referendum is that people like you are caught up with the EU being democratic that you fail to realise the UK is the same - you just dont listen.
    1) you didn't answer my question. look who's "not listening" now
    2) I know the UK is undemocratic - the EU is just making that fact worse for us. *think*.
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    (Original post by Fenice)
    I am not being naive about anything, you are simply peddling nonsense.

    Your only source to back this up from the article I have given you is Macron, who, as The Guardian - an effectively unanimous supporter of Remain - well notes, is 'young, ambitious, a former banker and often at odds with his socialist colleagues, [who] may well - and not for the first time - have spoken out of turn'. The Guardian concludes their article by referencing a series of embarrassing incidents which have helped reinforce his reputation as an opportunistic loose cannon out to burn bridges for the sake of making a name for himself.

    Opposing him under the 'France's official position' header is the Interior Minister, who backs up the argument that revoking the current arrangements would simply inflame the problem for both sides, as well as the regional prefect and a 'senior French government source'. The fact that the President and Prime Minister have not issued personal comments on this major issue in our relations despite the harm it would do the Leave campaign is in itself demonstrative that they know the Calais border controls are not going anywhere. Certainly the opinions of these other senior figures is supportive of this conclusion in the context.



    Such as?

    As senior government sources make clear they are not going to 'rip up' this arrangement because it would be contrary to their interests by attracting many more migrants to the French coast and because they would cause a major and mutually destructive diplomatic furore with a major trading partner. In the event of a Brexit, France would not have the opportunity, the means or the motive to pursue the course of action you are deceptively pushing as inevitable.
    I find it puzzling that you think France as a state is overly concerned by large numbers of migrants arriving at Calais. In the past, they have always shrugged an indifferent Gallic shoulder to this and waved them on to the UK with minimum interference. It was only when the UK placed huge pressure on them that they did anything serious about it. Hence the agreement. Maybe it would survive Leave, maybe it wouldn't, but given their general attitude to this issue, I wouldn't be too confident about it.

    It's also quite adrift from actual experience to claim that the French obsess over the economic impact of trade disruption with Britain when time and again French union activity, often violent, has severely damaged trade, for example only last year and the reaction of the authorities has been to stand by and allow it.

    Ironically, UKIP and their fellow travellers were amongst the most vocal condemning French behaviour about these things in the past and now they are all saying how marvellously trustworthy France will be as a partner in an EU we have just left. Quite the reverse I should think, especially if Le Pen comes to power and even more so if the EU fragments after a Leave vote, which is quite a likely outcome.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Thank you Moggis.

    I didn't deliberately set out to create a biased poll, they were just the random thoughts I had at the time about the likely possible outcomes. TSR isn't YouGov or the BBC, I don't need to be either completely objective or totally unbiased. Others are free to make their own threads or ignore this one.

    One thing I don't think has been covered at all well in this campaign so far is the key factor causing many to consider a Leave vote - high inward migration.

    Leaving will almost without doubt make this worse, not better. Does anyone seriously think that France will maintain the (grudging and shambolic) attempts at co-operation on this issue that they currently offer? If the UK leaves, all help at the French departure points will cease and it's completely predictable that their attitude will be to wave all migrants through to Britain as quickly as possible, with no UK customs presence permitted on their side of the border.

    I think it's actually fairly likely that we will be looking at closing the Channel Tunnel under Leave conditions and possibly even closing the borders totally to many countries, creating tit-for-tat Visa wars and huge long-term headaches for British people wanting to travel abroad.
    I believe there's a good chance that you are right. But if the remain campaign said it they would be accused of scaremongering as you will probably agree.

    I also think that a great many people are so full of hate towards politicians (I'm afraid I'm guilty of this ) that they are willing to take the risk.

    (Not being funny but I think that remain should have recruited someone like you,the actress Juliet Stevenson and someone else who isn't a hated MP to deal with Boris)
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I find it puzzling that you think France as a state is overly concerned by large numbers of migrants arriving at Calais. In the past, they have always shrugged an indifferent Gallic shoulder to this and waved them on to the UK with minimum interference. It was only when the UK placed huge pressure on them that they did anything serious about it. Hence the agreement. Maybe it would survive Leave, maybe it wouldn't, but given their general attitude to this issue, I wouldn't be too confident about it.

    It's also quite adrift from actual experience to claim that the French obsess over the economic impact of trade disruption with Britain when time and again French union activity, often violent, has severely damaged trade, for example only last year and the reaction of the authorities has been to stand by and allow it.

    Ironically, UKIP and their fellow travellers were amongst the most vocal condemning French behaviour about these things in the past and now they are all saying how marvellously trustworthy France will be as a partner in an EU we have just left. Quite the reverse I should think, especially if Le Pen comes to power and even more so if the EU fragments after a Leave vote, which is quite a likely outcome.
    I find it interesting how little faith a lot of people voting Remain have in the EU.
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    It's NOT 85% leave! Are you guys insane?!

    As of June 10, it's 46% Leave, 45% Remain, the rest undecided.
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    (Original post by ib_hopeful)
    It's NOT 85% leave! Are you guys insane?!

    As of June 10, it's 46% Leave, 45% Remain, the rest undecided.
    Remain is slightly ahead of Leave in the latest YouGov poll.
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    Whoever said 85% wow must be nice living in la la land :lol:
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Remain is slightly ahead of Leave in the latest YouGov poll.
    That makes me so happy!!
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    (Original post by Malevolent)
    Whoever said 85% wow must be nice living in la la land :lol:
    Anything that says it's more than 5 points apart is obviously crap


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    (Original post by paul514)
    Anything that says it's more than 5 points apart is obviously crap


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    Yup its gonna be close. Whoever thinks otherwise well, I want whatever they're smoking because its some potent ****.
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    (Original post by Malevolent)
    Yup its gonna be close. Whoever thinks otherwise well, I want whatever they're smoking because its some potent ****.
    Probably stocked up on legal highs before the ban


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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    There are many who think the Tory Party is going to divide in two after this anyway, regardless of the outcome.

    One of the saddest things about a Leave vote would be that it would be the working people of the country voting against their own interests on behalf of a corrupt group of reactionary politicians who represent City tax evasion interests. Eg, people like Farage and the right wing of the Conservative Party.
    How will leaving the EU effect this issue?

    personally, there are sold reasons for leaving (we do need high immigration but we want to have a cap ideally) and the fact that muslim communities aren't integrating in some cases, and red tape in the eu restricting free trade, etc BUT


    Trade deals are hard to make, the EU will punish us by being relentless cruel as a lesson to other states who might want to leave and damage the EU economy like we will (or they will if they have a brain) so we'll be ****ed for the next ten years while we sort that out.
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    so basically what some people are saying is that it would not be in the interests of the working man to vote leave when there traditional job roles have been getting stolen by the masses of Europeans? hmmmmm, alrighty then........ only metropolitan liberals and middle class people unaffected by immigration vote remain. the labour party mean well but they are so out of sync with their typical voter on this issue.... the white van man dosent want more European immigration, period.
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    (Original post by banterboy)
    How will leaving the EU effect this issue?

    personally, there are sold reasons for leaving (we do need high immigration but we want to have a cap ideally) and the fact that muslim communities aren't integrating in some cases, and red tape in the eu restricting free trade, etc BUT


    Trade deals are hard to make, the EU will punish us by being relentless cruel as a lesson to other states who might want to leave and damage the EU economy like we will (or they will if they have a brain) so we'll be ****ed for the next ten years while we sort that out.
    We wont be ****ed. Have some faith, believe in yourself , believe in our country and vote leave. Things will work out mate.
    I'd rather take the risk, than let a controlling organisation from another country ruin our country and rob us.
 
 
 
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