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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)

    As with everything, the religious faith of the leavers that everything will somehow, by some magical process, be better after departure, trumps any analysis of actual economic reality.
    What about the religious faith of the left remainers who think they can just somehow magic a wonderful federalist democratic EU into existence.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    The voice of faith.

    The big car manufacturers came to the UK to set up their major plants precisely because Britain is in the EU.

    Answers on a postcard as to why they won't decide to leave when we do.
    1.They haven't done so in the past.
    2. Companies such as Boeing have committed to stay in the UK regardless of outcome
    3. At this rate the whole EU could break up (France and others more eurosceptic than us)
    4. 20% of FTSE 100 chairmen are for a brexit (this doesn't mean 80% are against, since many will be indifferent)
    5. Relocating might not be cost effective
    6. New outcomes from Brexit could be beneficial for them staying in UK
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    (Original post by generallee)
    On the second part I agree.

    On the first, I think the universal aspect of old age pensions is the problem. I understand the (very good) arguments for it, but it leads to rich elderly people getting money they don't need in a time of austerity, and the pensions part of the overall governmental budget getting bigger and bigger as a proportion of the total because people are living so much longer.
    Most OAPs are not rich, 1/3 worry about just having to heat their homes in the winter and one dies every 7 minutes due to not being able to heat their home:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/533...overty-scandal

    Yes, it is a massive problem experienced by developed countries with ageing populations but slashing pensions isn't the solution
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    The voice of faith.

    The big car manufacturers came to the UK to set up their major plants precisely because Britain is in the EU.

    Answers on a postcard as to why they won't decide to leave when we do.
    It's comical isn't it. For example, Toyota has already openly stated it WILL cut back. Leave just deny that or call them liars.

    http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/in...tain-remain-eu

    Can't wait for the 2 years of investment influx into the UK whilst there is massive uncertainty )))))
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    (Original post by generallee)
    Yes we did!

    I said there were ups and downs.

    Actually the history of the post Norman Conquest is another very good argument for leave.

    Because of it successive English Kings got caught in a sort of early European Union, with lands all over France. It caused all sorts of rivalries and problems.

    We didn't see the end of centuries of warfare until we finally lost all those possessions in continental Europe.
    If we're going down this road it's worth pointing out that we haven't had an English royal house since 1066. We've had Norman, Welsh, Scottish and currently German.

    They had those lands in France because they were French.
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    (Original post by Axion)
    It's comical isn't it. For example, Toyota has already openly stated it WILL cut back. Leave just deny that or call them liars.

    http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/in...tain-remain-eu

    Can't wait for the 2 years of investment influx into the UK whilst there is massive uncertainty )))))
    "Foreign investment
    Concerns about a drying up of foreign direct investment if Britain votes to leave the European Union are somewhat overblown. Access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in Britain. Other advantages to investing here should ensure that foreign firms continue to want a foothold in the country. It is likely Britain would remain a haven for foreign direct investment flows even if it was outside of the European Union. Of course, we could see a period of weak foreign direct investment inflows as the United Kingdom’s new relationship is renegotiated. However, if Britain is able to obtain favourable terms, then foreign direct investment would probably recoup this lost ground."

    https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-i...brexit-report/
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    (Original post by JamesN88)
    If we're going down this road it's worth pointing out that we haven't had an English royal house since 1066. We've had Norman, Welsh, Scottish and currently German.

    They had those lands in France because they were French.
    In which the average remain voter tries to deny the Hundred Year's War ever happened
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    (Original post by ChaoticButterfly)
    What about the religious faith of the left remainers who think they can just somehow magic a wonderful federalist democratic EU into existence.
    I can't rep you because I already have (surprisingly!) but I just wanted to acknowledge your post.

    You are absolutely right of course. The kind of thinking that led to the disaster of the Euro was akin to a religious faith.

    As is the ridiculous dream of federal superstate.

    It is refreshing to read a voice from Lexit. You guys are part of a proud, radical tradition that goes back to Michael Foot and Tony Benn. They were both great patriots and so are all of you.
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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    "Foreign investment
    Concerns about a drying up of foreign direct investment if Britain votes to leave the European Union are somewhat overblown. Access to the single market is not the only reason that firms invest in Britain. Other advantages to investing here should ensure that foreign firms continue to want a foothold in the country. It is likely Britain would remain a haven for foreign direct investment flows even if it was outside of the European Union. Of course, we could see a period of weak foreign direct investment inflows as the United Kingdom’s new relationship is renegotiated. However, if Britain is able to obtain favourable terms, then foreign direct investment would probably recoup this lost ground."

    https://woodfordfunds.com/economic-i...brexit-report/
    What do I value more:
    1. Statements from Toyota, even a range of Financial institutions and other businesses who openly have stated they will seek to move jobs to mainland Europe in event of a Brexit.
    2. Conjecture and opinions on whether the shortfall will be recouped in an uncertain event that we get favourable trade terms.

    That completely neglects the point that you'd see a job sector shift. Manufacturing and financial services, and related jobs could certainly dwindle because of the need to stay in a zone of stable regulation/access to the single market.

    Is it merely OK on a personal level to hold two fingers up to those currently in work who face losing their job, because someone else may gain a job elsewhere if we vote Brexit?
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    (Original post by EuanF)
    In which the average remain voter tries to deny the Hundred Year's War ever happened
    Really?

    Can you direct me to where "an average remain voter" has claimed this? Or where anyone has for that matter?
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    (Original post by Axion)
    What do I value more:
    1. Statements from Toyota, even a range of Financial institutions and other businesses who openly have stated they will seek to move jobs to mainland Europe in event of a Brexit.
    2. Conjecture and opinions on whether the shortfall will be recouped in an uncertain event that we get favourable trade terms.

    That completely neglects the point that you'd see a job sector shift. Manufacturing and financial services, and related jobs could certainly dwindle because of the need to stay in a zone of stable regulation/access to the single market.

    Is it merely OK on a personal level to hold two fingers up to those currently in work who face losing their job, because someone else may gain a job elsewhere if we vote Brexit?
    Senior management in these companies don't care about the long term future of the UK. They are concerned about short term potential because they don't want their stock options to get hit 10-20% in the short run as a result of a Brexit and they want to retire/ get kicked out. Thus i would be a bit dubious of their claims.

    I have linked the research report for a big asset management firm which focuses on long term holdings which i feel will give a more accurate picture of where the economy is heading in the long term.
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    (Original post by AnnieGakusei)
    Even if we don't vote to leave, I hope the number who voted Leave is sufficient to cause a bit of a shake-up. There's nothing I like less than our current government.
    This seems to be a mistake that a lot of people are making.

    This referendum has absolutely ZERO to do with our current government. Do not vote out of the EU just because you dislike the Tories!

    You get the chance to vote them out of power during the next general election.
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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    Most OAPs are not rich, 1/3 worry about just having to heat their homes in the winter and one dies every 7 minutes due to not being able to heat their home:

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/533...overty-scandal

    Yes, it is a massive problem experienced by developed countries with ageing populations but slashing pensions isn't the solution
    You misunderstand me.

    I don't advocate slashing pensions, nor do I say that most pensioners are rich.

    I was arguing that the "universal" aspect of old age pensions (there from the very start) means that there isn't a "means test." So millionaire pensioners get it too even though they don't need it.
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    (Original post by Axion)
    Yes, the more likely Leave goes through, the more turbulent the markets are becoming and the more evident the economic impact is going to be. Over £110bn wiped off the Uk markets alone over the past week when Remain odds have shortened from 70% to 57%, and the markets starting to tank.
    This is what you are talking about:



    Not seeing a very clear pattern here personally.
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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    Senior management in these companies don't care about the long term future of the UK. They are concerned about short term potential because they don't want their stock options to get hit 10-20% in the short run as a result of a Brexit and they want to retire/ get kicked out.

    I have linked the research report for a big asset management firm which focuses on long term holdings which i feel will give a more accurate picture of where the economy is heading.
    Of course, I'm well aware of how management are incentivised. It changes nothing. Jobs and investment is at risk - plain and simple. They have stated that and no-one, absolutely no-one, is better placed to dispute that. They have access to strategic plans, investment proposals, financing proposals, and financial statements. We don't, simple.

    I know you have. Neil Woodford is a great fund manager. However, he certainly has been wrong countless times, and numerous high profile times!

    Care to comment on my point about sector shifts and employment losses? I don't think it's in any way right to say "screw you" to some already in work, just because we may, in a good scenario, recoup jobs elsewhere.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    This is what you are talking about:



    Not seeing a very clear pattern here personally.
    Naturally there are many movements that make a market - the media will no doubt draw upon the movement on the day of the referendum result and that'll probably be a 3%+ swing in either direction, at a guess, given how tight it is.

    Over the last week alone, since Brexit has strengthened in the polls massively, we've already gone from 6300 to 5970 on the FTSE100 - that's minus 5.3% cumulative in consecutive declines. May not sound a lot, but that's in just one week, and it could certainly continue at this rate. Capital flows into UK equities seem very weak. Heck, you should see our UK volatility indices. They've gone through the roof.

    Name:  Capture.PNG
Views: 17
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    In just one week, as the threat of Brexit becomes more tangible. It's not even the bookies probable scenario yet and this decline/rise has already started!
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    (Original post by stroppyninja)
    This seems to be a mistake that a lot of people are making.

    This referendum has absolutely ZERO to do with our current government. Do not vote out of the EU just because you dislike the Tories!

    You get the chance to vote them out of power during the next general election.
    The mistake is yours.

    The head of the current Government is David Cameron. If we vote Brexit he will be ousted in days. Osborne will be finished too.

    So if you want to get rid of this government undecided voter, now is your chance. You'll never get another chance to oust that sanctimonious posh boy git, Cameron and his bezzie mate, Georgie boy.

    There is also likely to be a general election in short order.

    Exciting times!
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    (Original post by Axion)
    Over the last week alone, since Brexit has strengthened in the polls massively, we've already gone from 6300 to 5970 on the FTSE100 - that's minus 5.3% in consecutive declines. May not sound a lot, but that's in just one week, and it could certainly continue at this rate.
    Look at the graph: there are over 20 such draw downs, and several considerably larger, going back to long before the 2015 general election, when the referendum wasn't an issue. 5% draw downs are just noise in the market data.
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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    1.They haven't done so in the past.
    2. Companies such as Boeing have committed to stay in the UK regardless of outcome
    3. At this rate the whole EU could break up (France and others more eurosceptic than us)
    4. 20% of FTSE 100 chairmen are for a brexit (this doesn't mean 80% are against, since many will be indifferent)
    5. Relocating might not be cost effective
    6. New outcomes from Brexit could be beneficial for them staying in UK
    Boeing isn't a good example - they have about 1,500 employees in the UK. Nissan alone have more than 10,000.

    Most of the FTSE directors in favour of Brexit work for predatory City companies like hedge funds, finance companies and gambling organisations. Hardly a great advert for the sort of research/manufacturing Britain we all want.

    Your arguments are, as I said, more faith than reality.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    Look at the graph: there are over 20 such draw downs, and several considerably larger, going back to long before the 2015 general election, when the referendum wasn't an issue. 5% draw downs are just noise in the market data.
    Edited my reply a bit late. 5.3% in one week, and no tangible signs of it slowing. If it reaches 10% does that make it enough of an exceptional event? At this rate it is certainly heading there.

    And remember this 5.3% decline already is with the Remain bookies odds still at 60%... Could get worse.
 
 
 
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