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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Saying country x has done fine is not the same as saying we should emulate country x

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    I know.

    But country X happens to be doing a lot of the things which are totally unacceptable to team Brexit.
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    How do we know?

    It's like me saying I will be better off if I stopped paying my mortgage. Looking at the numbers - I would be. I would be hundreds of pounds a month better off if I just stopped giving the bank money.

    However, in the long run, the bank would chase me. They'd take the house and sell it. If it comes in at a low price I'd be liable for the shortfall. There'd be other charges added on to that. Then I'd have to find somewhere else to live. I might have to pay more for that... or I might have to live further away from work, so I'd pay more in transport. Actually, my job relies on me having a clean credit check... so I'd probably lose that. So I'd be in a right pickle...

    The same goes for stating that we'd be financially better off out of the EU. Would we? How about the lost trade? The economy could take a tumble. Jobs might be lost. Businesses might move. We might miss out on investment. We may pay more for goods and services.

    One of the many faults of this campaign has been over simplification. Both sides are guilty. But the "if we leave, we'd be better off by the value of our membership fee" statement is prime example.
    We will be better off out of EU. Switzerland is doing fine without the EU, they also have access to one of the world's high quality companies like Rolex. A very high amount of their people are employed without the help of EU.

    We're United Kingdom who is in the EU. But you know what? We're doing worser than Switzerland, much worser. That tells you everything. Our country has a high value. Other countries need us. We will definitely be able to make new free trade deals if we Leave. The media, David Cameron and the EU funded experts are telling you rubbish.
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    How do we know?

    It's like me saying I will be better off if I stopped paying my mortgage. Looking at the numbers - I would be. I would be hundreds of pounds a month better off if I just stopped giving the bank money.

    However, in the long run, the bank would chase me. They'd take the house and sell it. If it comes in at a low price I'd be liable for the shortfall. There'd be other charges added on to that. Then I'd have to find somewhere else to live. I might have to pay more for that... or I might have to live further away from work, so I'd pay more in transport. Actually, my job relies on me having a clean credit check... so I'd probably lose that. So I'd be in a right pickle...

    The same goes for stating that we'd be financially better off out of the EU. Would we? How about the lost trade? The economy could take a tumble. Jobs might be lost. Businesses might move. We might miss out on investment. We may pay more for goods and services.

    One of the many faults of this campaign has been over simplification. Both sides are guilty. But the "if we leave, we'd be better off by the value of our membership fee" statement is prime example.
    Why do you think we will lose trade? Why would a country commit economic self-harm by cutting off ties to Britain and raising trade barriers that would be utterly pointless? Out of spite? It's a pretty irrational thing to believe, especially with major European elections coming up soon.
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    I know.

    But country X happens to be doing a lot of the things which are totally unacceptable to team Brexit.
    Many of which are practically by necessity

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    exactly midnightice, but it would give us the freedom to reduce tariffs or sign free trade deals wiith non-eu countries on the WTO (which the EU doesn't allow us to have a seat on). And even if they did refuse a trade deal (which they won't or new governments would be voted in), the tariffs would still be less than our net eu budget contributions. So the EU makes no economic sense for the UK, as ourselves and Germany are the only 2 prospering countries, the rest are failing.
    VOTE LEAVE
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    (Original post by midnightice)
    Why do you think we will lose trade? Why would a country commit economic self-harm by cutting of ties with Britain
    Good point. Why do Brexit want to cut ties with 45% of their market. It may be dwindling but it still beats 18% of trade to the USA and 2.5% to China.
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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Good point. Why do Brexit want to cut ties with 45% of their market. It may be dwindling but it still beats 18% of trade to the USA and 2.5% to China.
    Pray tell how leaving is cutting ties? By that logic there are going to be no ties between us and any non EU country,

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    (Original post by ByEeek)
    Good point. Why do Brexit want to cut ties with 45% of their market. It may be dwindling but it still beats 18% of trade to the USA and 2.5% to China.
    I think you missed the premise of the question I was asking. Cutting off political ties with the EU is the key goal, not to discontinue trading arrangements. Maybe I can put the question to you: why would tariffs be imposed when it benefits no one?
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    (Original post by james813)
    exactly midnightice, but it would give us the freedom to reduce tariffs or sign free trade deals wiith non-eu countries on the WTO (which the EU doesn't allow us to have a seat on). And even if they did refuse a trade deal (which they won't or new governments would be voted in), the tariffs would still be less than our net eu budget contributions. So the EU makes no economic sense for the UK, as ourselves and Germany are the only 2 prospering countries, the rest are failing.
    VOTE LEAVE
    Exactly mate. Well done.
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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    We will be better off out of EU. Switzerland is doing fine without the EU, they also have access to one of the world's high quality companies like Rolex. A very high amount of their people are employed without the help of EU.

    We're United Kingdom who is in the EU. But you know what? We're doing worser than Switzerland, much worser. That tells you everything. Our country has a high value. Other countries need us. We will definitely be able to make new free trade deals if we Leave. The media, David Cameron and the EU funded experts are telling you rubbish.
    (Original post by james813)
    exactly midnightice, but it would give us the freedom to reduce tariffs or sign free trade deals wiith non-eu countries on the WTO (which the EU doesn't allow us to have a seat on). And even if they did refuse a trade deal (which they won't or new governments would be voted in), the tariffs would still be less than our net eu budget contributions. So the EU makes no economic sense for the UK, as ourselves and Germany are the only 2 prospering countries, the rest are failing.
    VOTE LEAVE
    I'm for Out but you guys really need to do some fact checking. Swiss economic growth is all of 0.7% at the moment, slower than France and Germany. You also forget that Ireland, Spain and Poland are booming.

    Don't fall into the trap of underestimating your enemy or you'll be caught out.
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    (Original post by midnightice)
    Sorry, but there are no concrete facts about what will happen to our economy if we voted to leave. The economic forecasts that have been made have relied on assumptions about our trading position with the EU. Many of the assumptions are just irrational, predicting a loss of trade due to the EU throwing tantrums and imposing tariffs, which would of course benefit absolutely no one and is an incredibly far-fetched thing to believe. Brexit is a process, not an event, and if there was any chance of economic instability it would be due to tentative investor decisions whilst our new position would be negotiated, and would therefore require effective management by the government to ease any concerns
    Its your word against almost all economists and major banks.
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    (Original post by Shapez)
    Are you an economist? How do you know anything about the economy apart from what youve read. This goes for regardless if you are pro or vs brexit
    Not relevant, if only economists were allowed to talk on the issue, we would have very one dimensional arguments.
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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    You have ignored the fact that:

    We have been in the EU for 40+ years and its not working. Employment is getting drasticly low.

    I do have an idea on what UK would look like without being in the EU. It would be more democratic, economical (no high EU membership fees) and more freedom.

    The fact that you have not bothered to watch the video at the beginning of this thread, shows that your ignorant.
    David Cameron is bull****g and your listening to him.
    Vote Leave. Its best for this country.
    You're very silly, assuming I didn't watch the video, assuming I didn't consider unemployment, assuming I'm listening to David Cameron out of all the remain supporters.

    And you have this counterargument of "theres some massive conspiracy between ALL world leaders, world banks and economists" - from my perspective its you who is purporting the BS mate
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    "All what you said is b***sh*t"

    clearly I wasted my time and you are stupider than I first thought, what a compelling counterargument other than some stupid conspiracy theory, basically infowars style.
    In 1994, there was an EU referendum in Norway whether to Remain or Leave.
    The Yes campaign at that time said that Norway will lose 50,000 jobs, nobody will invest in Norway, the interest rates will go high, Norway will be isolated, the fisheries will lose out tremendously and the economy will be affected if they Vote Leave.

    Source:



    "The result is a blow for Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, who has made Norwegian membership of the EU her main political goal for the last four years."

    ""The "yes" campaign has centred on the potential for Norway to become isolated if it doesn't join neighbouring EU countries in an era of expansion and change....But economists also warn that although Norway's oil-dependent economy is strong in the short term, North Sea oil and gas revenues are due to tail off soon and growth is expected to weaken.."

    ^^^ Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/d...00/4208314.stm

    Stock market of Norway before and after 1994:

    Name:  Norway 1994 Stock market.png
Views: 79
Size:  107.3 KB

    Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/currency

    Unemployment rate after Voting Leave to 1994 EU referendum:

    Name:  Norway unemployment rate.png
Views: 67
Size:  97.0 KB
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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    In 1994, there was an EU referendum in Norway whether to Remain or Leave.
    The Yes campaign at that time said that Norway will lose 50,000 jobs, nobody will invest in Norway, the interest rates will go high, Norway will be isolated, the fisheries will lose out tremendously and the economy will be affected if they Vote Leave.

    Source:



    "The result is a blow for Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, who has made Norwegian membership of the EU her main political goal for the last four years."

    ""The "yes" campaign has centred on the potential for Norway to become isolated if it doesn't join neighbouring EU countries in an era of expansion and change....But economists also warn that although Norway's oil-dependent economy is strong in the short term, North Sea oil and gas revenues are due to tail off soon and growth is expected to weaken.."

    ^^^ Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/d...00/4208314.stm

    Stock market of Norway before and after 1994:

    Name:  Norway 1994 Stock market.png
Views: 79
Size:  107.3 KB

    Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/norway/currency
    I've said it before and I'll say it again - leaving the EU doesn't guarantee magic economic success. Norway's economy was based heavily on fishing and other natural resources, Norway's population is significantly lower than ours, Norway leaving the EU had a negligible knock-on effect on the remaining member states. If we leave the EU, the other members will become significantly weaker and they might even leave themselves - the EU isn't just something we can safely dip in and out of, if we leave, its like pulling out the plug in a bathtub - for ourselves and other countries.

    But you don't seem to get that Norway was in a circumstantially different scenario to us, not to mention this was some 22 years ago.

    Leaving won't magically, instantly make our economy better, it will be deprived in the short term and could succeed in the long term - but no assurance. And 90% of economists agree that a Brexit is an unnecessary risk, are they wrong and you correct?
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    (Original post by alevelstresss;65916336[b)
    ]I've said it before and I'll say it again - leaving the EU doesn't guarantee magic economic success.[/b] Norway's economy was based heavily on fishing and other natural resources, Norway's population is significantly lower than ours, Norway leaving the EU had a negligible knock-on effect on the remaining member states. If we leave the EU, the other members will become significantly weaker and they might even leave themselves - the EU isn't just something we can safely dip in and out of, if we leave, its like pulling out the plug in a bathtub - for ourselves and other countries.

    But you don't seem to get that Norway was in a circumstantially different scenario to us, not to mention this was some 22 years ago.

    Leaving won't magically, instantly make our economy better, it will be deprived in the short term and could succeed in the long term - but no assurance. And 90% of economists agree that a Brexit is an unnecessary risk, are they wrong and you correct?
    Thats not the point. My point is that the media, politicians and economic experts lied to Norway in 1994 about the future economic crisis and the isolation. You have ignored this.
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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    Thats not the point. My point is that the media, politicians and economic experts lied to Norway in 1994 about the future economic crisis and the isolation. You have ignored this.
    You've ignored the fact that Norway 1994 is fundamentally different to Britain 2016.
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    If Switzerland and Norway can survive, then so can Great Britain. Dont lose your faith in Great Britain, we can do well without the EU. We need our laws.

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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    If Switzerland and Norway can survive, then so can Great Britain. Dont lose your faith in Great Britain, we can do well without the EU. We need our laws.

    This is just stupid, Norway and Switzerland leaving/not joining the EU several decades ago is a completely different situation to Britain leaving the EU in 2016. There will be a knock-on effect on all of Europe which you're neglecting.
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    (Original post by Naveed-7)
    We will be better off out of EU. Switzerland is doing fine without the EU, they also have access to one of the world's high quality companies like Rolex. A very high amount of their people are employed without the help of EU.
    There you go again. I say we could be worse off out of the EU... and you use Switzerland as an example to the contrary.

    1) Switzerland isn't doing so great compared to so EU member countries.
    2) The UK would not want the Swiss model. The Swiss model doesn't allow for the access to the single market we'd want. It means we'd have to accept free movement of people. It means we have to accept EU rules.
    3) The EU wouldn't allow a Swiss model.

    What you need to do, to make your point, is show me a country which is not in the EU. Isn't subject to any EU rules, but is trading with the EU on equal or better terms as the UK currently is. Oh, and this country also needs to be performing on a par with, or better, than the UK is.

    (Original post by midnightice)
    Why do you think we will lose trade? Why would a country commit economic self-harm by cutting off ties to Britain and raising trade barriers that would be utterly pointless? Out of spite? It's a pretty irrational thing to believe, especially with major European elections coming up soon.
    I don't think it is beyond a country to source goods from elsewhere. Somewhere where getting them is cheaper.

    We might also have companies seek to leave the UK. One that springs to my mind is Ford. They make a huge number of engines and parts in the UK... but one can't help to wonder whether this would change should the UK exit the EU. I'd have thought it would make more sense for Ford to move operations to one of their many factories in the EU. Same goes for other companies - and financial institutions.

    Also - every single country left in the EU has to agree to any rule changes to trade with the UK, should we leave. It isn't the case that one country could just decide to trade with us on favourable terms. It would have to get agreement from all the other EU states.

    I think it is more likely than not that we'd lose trade.
 
 
 
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