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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    I think another key takeaway from which i have found from these referendum analysts is that the polls are not a good predictor of what the final outcome will be and should be used as just momentum indicators.

    I'm also surprised at the lack of swing towards remain as a result of both the Farage poster and Jo Cox death. I think this will go right down the wire despite what betting exchange odds tell us.
    There is talk that the betting odds were influenced for market profits. The betting odds swing more drastically than the polls, the odds of remain from the bookies are WAY higher than those derived from the polls, but one could easily make large investments correctly and use the bookies to manipulate the market by making people think exit is more or less likely. And if you play it well you won't even be losing from the bookies.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    There is talk that the betting odds were influenced for market profits. The betting odds swing more drastically than the polls, the odds of remain from the bookies are WAY higher than those derived from the polls, but one could easily make large investments correctly and use the bookies to manipulate the market by making people think exit is more or less likely. And if you play it well you won't even be losing from the bookies.

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    Surely they have far too much betting traffic for a few large bets to alter it much? The algorithms they use will just be responding to a big market of millions of transactions, so on some level, it does reflect sentiment.

    The real question is whether the sentiment is right.
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    I always heard polls have a wriggle of +-5% anyway so I'm not going to get too happy.. it's damned too close for comfort either way
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Surely they have far too much betting traffic for a few large bets to alter it much? The algorithms they use will just be responding to a big market of millions of transactions, so on some level, it does reflect sentiment.

    The real question is whether the sentiment is right.
    Most bets will be small, and I expect there may be weighting for larger bets, with traffic of I would guess only a few million a day at most I would have though a few massive bets could significantly change it, especially if there is expectation for a swing any way

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    (Original post by Architecture-er)
    I always heard polls have a wriggle of +-5% anyway so I'm not going to get too happy.. it's damned too close for comfort either way
    Each figure will have a margin of error of 2 or 3% yeah

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    The Remain campaign has generally been...

    Honest: 22%
    Dishonest: 46%

    Positive: 16%
    Negative: 58%

    (via YouGov)


    The Leave campaign has generally been...

    Honest: 26%
    Dishonest: 43%

    Positive: 27%
    Negative: 46%

    (via YouGov)
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    Leave is back ahead by 2% from latest yougov survey - 42% remain 44% leave 13% don't know.


    Looks like their lead was shortlived
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    (Original post by Proximo)
    Leave is back ahead by 2% from latest yougov survey - 42% remain 44% leave 13% don't know.


    Looks like their lead was shortlived
    I don't think it is statistically significant because of margin of error
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Most bets will be small, and I expect there may be weighting for larger bets, with traffic of I would guess only a few million a day at most I would have though a few massive bets could significantly change it, especially if there is expectation for a swing any way

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    I don't think you know. You're just guessing.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    "I've got the morals, you've got the cynicism, let's make lots of money".

    That kind of thing?
    Thats fine by me.
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    Survation poll for IG at 13:30 here: http://www.ig.com/uk/live-video

    Last survation poll had 3% lead for remain

    I reckon if Remain has 4% lead or more than it's game over for leave campaign.
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    51%-49% exc dks to remain, game on boys!
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    (Original post by Sun_Bear)
    51%-49% exc dks to remain, game on boys!
    You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

    Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

    44-45 to remain from Survation today.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

    Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

    44-45 to remain from Survation today.
    If anything it's the other way around. Look at election analysts on twitter and poll of polls from say the times and they all use results that have dks excluded.

    Edit: all pollsters release results showing results with and without dks
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

    Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

    44-45 to remain from Survation today.
    I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.
    That's because they assume that young people won't bother as much and pensioners are massively leave.

    Both polls would give remain the win once DK breaks on the day, Leave to win either need to be around 48% or have a large lead. I suspect though that polling will move back towards last weeks polling which had Leave by the line though.

    My instincts said it would be remain by 53% but polling in recent weeks has only gone one way until Saturday and even then Remain are polling only about 45%.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.
    That's just not what the professional polling companies have been telling us. In the past week some pollsters have had to adjust their polling methods as they have officially announced that they have been over representing graduates. The polls released today and yesterday have shown everything but a straight line to victory for remain. The CEO of survation just said how it was 50-50 and it was 8 people in the suvation poll out of a sample of 800 which made the difference.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I don't think you know. You're just guessing.
    Total EUref betting market is estimated at £20 million. It would take more than a few £25k bets to move that.

    http://www.williamhillplc.com/media/...-bash-bookies/

    (Full disclosure: I am not a betting expert and could be completely wrong on this )
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    people who want to remain r boring. live a little and take a risk ffs
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    (Original post by gimplord4000)
    people who want to remain r boring. live a little and take a risk ffs
    That's why there's a minimum voting age
 
 
 
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