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Warnings over Brexit from the big powers

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    Fullofsurprises


    I beg to differ.

    Firstly, due to the economy showing no signs of weakening to a point where Brexiters would consider changing their mind, if anything it has recovered very well. With the FTSE 250 reaching 14 month highs and GDP figures showing that in the run up to the election, the UK economy was still growing very well.

    Secondly, because while it is true that the Brexit side was far from completely honest, the remain side was arguably not much better. The divisions from both sides still remain and the idea that either side has lost a significant amount of support is arguably untrue as well. If anything I would argue that the Brexit side has gained support due to the British economy remaining strong, despite what many experts and campaigners said in the run-up to the referendum.


    Even if the UK did enter into a short-term recesssion (which seems very unlikekly) I doubt even this would sway enough voters to have a big enough impact on the vote if a new referendum was held.
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    (Original post by dan123toffee)
    Fullofsurprises


    I beg to differ.

    Firstly, due to the economy showing no signs of weakening to a point where Brexiters would consider changing their mind, if anything it has recovered very well. With the FTSE 250 reaching 14 month highs and GDP figures showing that in the run up to the election, the UK economy was still growing very well.

    Secondly, because while it is true that the Brexit side was far from completely honest, the remain side was arguably not much better. The divisions from both sides still remain and the idea that either side has lost a significant amount of support is arguably untrue as well. If anything I would argue that the Brexit side has gained support due to the British economy remaining strong, despite what many experts and campaigners said in the run-up to the referendum.


    Even if the UK did enter into a short-term recesssion (which seems very unlikekly) I doubt even this would sway enough voters to have a big enough impact on the vote if a new referendum was held.
    Equities are just up because the savings rates are so low, the B of E having further squeezed them, so people have nowhere to go but equities. When you add to that the pressure from further releases of government cash into speculator's hands, it's clearly a bubble that will burst badly before too many moons have passed over.

    All of the long term indicators are in fact looking gloomy at the moment - this initial burst of optimism is going to look a distant memory in a couple of years.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Pretty sure China don't allow free trade in services so although a deal with them would be great in terms of lower inflation and more service sector jobs, it would decimate our domestic industry while not doing much for our own strength. I'd probably say that we should free trade deals with countries that are net exporters of goods unless they are willing to abolish restrictions on services from us.

    A free trade deal with Russia would be more appetizing in that regard since they can export cheap minerals (lowering our cost of production) but are not really an industrial threat and would probably let us sell them services. Russia of course though is pretty much enemy number 1 right now though so politically i'd not go for it.

    The poster you replied to though seemed to think the EU would not grant us free trade though which was weird.
    When you survey the world right now - China, Russia, the US, the late lamented BRICS - where do you see anywhere that there are really strong opportunities for additional fair trade? China is totally against fair trade and cheerfully ignores WTO rules and rulings. Russia is completely untrustworthy, as it has proven many times on gas supplies. The US is a strong market, but they play dirty too. Brazil has been strong, but is slipping and India remains a small market for us. The fact is that good trading terms with the EU continue to be vital and yet here we are gambling on them remaining tariff free. It's almost mentally ill, it's so perverse.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    When you survey the world right now - China, Russia, the US, the late lamented BRICS - where do you see anywhere that there are really strong opportunities for additional fair trade? China is totally against fair trade and cheerfully ignores WTO rules and rulings. Russia is completely untrustworthy, as it has proven many times on gas supplies. The US is a strong market, but they play dirty too. Brazil has been strong, but is slipping and India remains a small market for us. The fact is that good trading terms with the EU continue to be vital and yet here we are gambling on them remaining tariff free. It's almost mentally ill, it's so perverse.
    Oh I actually think Britain will remain tariff-free. Brexit just means out of EU. It doesn't have a comprehensive definition on what that looks like. So the UK will stay in free trade, but will have to accept free movement of people, will have to accept every EU law without having a say, etc. In the end, not much will change except Britain will have isolated itself.
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    Trump and the republicans seemed extremely supportive of Brexit when Farage visited them last week, here's hoping they get elected instead of Obama2.0 hillary
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    (Original post by yudothis)
    Oh I actually think Britain will remain tariff-free. Brexit just means out of EU. It doesn't have a comprehensive definition on what that looks like. So the UK will stay in free trade, but will have to accept free movement of people, will have to accept every EU law without having a say, etc. In the end, not much will change except Britain will have isolated itself.
    Name one country OUT of the EU and IN the free market.
    The free market is part of the EU, you just can't have one without the other, because you can't make decision for the EU if you're outside. So it'll be the europeans the ones who'll decide whether to re-extend the free market to a non-EU UK or not, but given the import/exports rates between the UK and the rest of the continent I doubt it'd be a good move for Germany, France and so on to do that.
    And if UK loses the free market, why should the european HQ of companies from all over the world stay? If London is no more Europe, what's the point in having an HQ there?
    (Original post by remiremi)
    Trump and the republicans seemed extremely supportive of Brexit when Farage visited them last week, here's hoping they get elected instead of Obama2.0 hillary
    Upside: USA support (maybe)
    Downside: WWIII
    Good.
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    (Original post by Brizio)
    Name one country OUT of the EU and IN the free market.
    The free market is part of the EU, you just can't have one without the other, because you can't make decision for the EU if you're outside. So it'll be the europeans the ones who'll decide whether to re-extend the free market to a non-EU UK or not, but given the import/exports rates between the UK and the rest of the continent I doubt it'd be a good move for Germany, France and so on to do that.
    And if UK loses the free market, why should the european HQ of companies from all over the world stay? If London is no more Europe, what's the point in having an HQ there?

    Upside: USA support (maybe)
    Downside: WWIII
    Good.
    Norway Iceland Liechtenstein and Switzerland don't count? Pretty much all of Europe is in it. Those countries that are not, it's mostly just the Balkans and then the East.

    So yes you are right, it's few, and that is why this is such a novum on so many levels.
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    (Original post by yudothis)
    Norway Iceland Liechtenstein and Switzerland don't count? Pretty much all of Europe is in it. Those countries that are not, it's mostly just the Balkans and then the East.

    So yes you are right, it's few, and that is why this is such a novum on so many levels.
    I don't know if Iceland is, but Norway, Lichtenstein and Swizerland aren't in the free market... they're geografically part of europe, not politically.
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    (Original post by Brizio)
    I don't know if Iceland is, but Norway, Lichtenstein and Swizerland aren't in the free market... they're geografically part of europe, not politically.
    Not politically, yes, they are not in the EU.

    But what to you then is the EEA? What are Switzerland's bilateral agreements for membership in the single market?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ement-citizens
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    (Original post by yudothis)
    Not politically, yes, they are not in the EU.

    But what to you then is the EEA? What are Switzerland's bilateral agreements for membership in the single market?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ement-citizens
    You're right, I didn't check and I made a mistake, sorry.
    Still, I wouldn't take for granted that the UK will be given the same opportunity, not at first at least: the EU is frightened that others might follow the example, so they're probably going to be as strict as they can.
    Much will depend on how long will the brexit take to be effective and on who'll be Prime Minister in the EU countries by that time... I personally can't see Merkel letting an anti-european british government win such an important deal.
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    (Original post by Brizio)
    You're right, I didn't check and I made a mistake, sorry.
    Still, I wouldn't take for granted that the UK will be given the same opportunity, not at first at least: the EU is frightened that others might follow the example, so they're probably going to be as strict as they can.
    Much will depend on how long will the brexit take to be effective and on who'll be Prime Minister in the EU countries by that time... I personally can't see Merkel letting an anti-european british government win such an important deal.
    Aye, not many people on here would admit to a mistake.

    And well, I don't know. They might just make the UK pay in order to join. And the UK is likely to do it because in the end it would be better than not joining. The EU has the bigger reach here. Suppose the game where one person can decide how to split up 20 dollars and the other can just accept or reject completely. The EU can say we keep 15 you get 5 and the UK will accept because for them 5 means a lot more than 15 does to the EU.
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    (Original post by yudothis)
    Aye, not many people on here would admit to a mistake.

    And well, I don't know. They might just make the UK pay in order to join. And the UK is likely to do it because in the end it would be better than not joining. The EU has the bigger reach here. Suppose the game where one person can decide how to split up 20 dollars and the other can just accept or reject completely. The EU can say we keep 15 you get 5 and the UK will accept because for them 5 means a lot more than 15 does to the EU.
    Yeah, I agree than if UK government manages not to be pushed out of the free market EU will want something in return and it'll be at EU terms, not UK's.
    What I can't understand (from the outside, I'm Italian by the way) of the "leave" side is what did they think they could get from leaving the UK... I agree you can also manage to keep your economy healty without the EU, but the union was by no means helding the UK back, so the best case scenario is business as usual! Am I wrong?
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    (Original post by Gadero)
    Brexit won't touch the FTSE 100, most of those corporations are dollar earners and operate on a global basis. Think Unilever, Shell, BP, Diageo,British American Tobacco. These are global companies, it will be business as usual for them. It's in their benefit to stay in the UK, we can turn into a tax haven and do what ireland is doing for apple.

    The FTSE 250 may get hit, especially anyone exporting or importing into the EU, the EU will most likely tax us heavy on goods we buy from them. Though right now the EU needs us more than we need them, so there is always room for negotiation.

    I think brexit is a good thing, change is always good. The EU project has been a failure in my eyes, letting in poorer nations who can't deal with such a strong currency like the euro.
    OK, so you want the UK to be a tax haven?

    Our public facilities will be even greater!
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    Your a pro-EU I ain't going to bother, but watch and see what will happen, China/Russia/India already want trade deals, USA is putting us at " back of line " apprently. This scenario is possible.
    Proof of China/Russia/India wanting to make trade deals with us post-Brexit?
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    Well, it's the people's decision.
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    (Original post by Sephiroth)
    We won't be leaving the EU. It's quite obvious that Theresa May's job is to delay Brexit as long as possible until public opinion shifts, get some horrible exit deal and then put it to a new referendum.

    I voted leave and I am completely against any deal that allows free movement of people, so we absolutely must leave the single market. If Theresa May can't present a deal to the country that allows us to control immigration, IE offers us a Norway or Switzerland style deal then I would rather we stay in the EU because doing that kind of deal is effectively staying while giving away our voice on EU affairs.

    Obama is a dickhead, nothing less. I used to think he was a great president but this Brexit business has changed my opinion. When the USA needs help fighting one of their wars the UK is the first country to come help them, yet when we need their help we're back of the queue? What the actual ****? I hope next time the US need support for a war we tell them where to go.
    Norway and Switzerland have to follow the four freedoms of the EU, particularly freedom of movement. Switzerland is going to give up the freedom of movement and they're in talks now about the EU-Switzerland future, they've also been cut off from much of the research funding from the EU.
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    Ummm, care to remind us where we heard all these threats before? Oh yes, they were made 3 or 4 months ago and were supposed to have been actioned already, as for Obama, I'm not sure I care what the person who is going to be on the multi million dollar speakers circuit in 14 weeks thinks, I would rather listen to their successors, actually, I would rather listen to Congress and the American people.

    Also easy to tell the position of the TSR staff: good news, nowehere to be seen, "bad" news 'Come on guys, let's put it in Today on TSR section so everybody can see how we're all doomed with no evidence to prove it!'
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    (Original post by asmuse123)
    Proof of China/Russia/India wanting to make trade deals with us post-Brexit?
    Look anywhere on the news
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    Look anywhere on the news
    Which news? Provide links to prove your point.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ummm, care to remind us where we heard all these threats before? Oh yes, they were made 3 or 4 months ago and were supposed to have been actioned already, as for Obama, I'm not sure I care what the person who is going to be on the multi million dollar speakers circuit in 14 weeks thinks, I would rather listen to their successors, actually, I would rather listen to Congress and the American people.

    Also easy to tell the position of the TSR staff: good news, nowehere to be seen, "bad" news 'Come on guys, let's put it in Today on TSR section so everybody can see how we're all doomed with no evidence to prove it!'
    we haven't even left the EU yet, don't get cocky
 
 
 
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