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Global Warming? Why should we be concerned? watch

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    (Original post by ish90an)
    I am questioning the knowledge we have of the factors which actually affect the weather and whether we really know enough about them to start predicting what will happen after the next 100 years, if we cannot use those factors to predict major weather and climate changes which lead to floods etc. Surely if these were accurate, some of the predictions made around 5-10 years ago about the weather today would come to be true by now.

    that is his point, we dont predict weather, but we have succesfully predicted most changes in climate so far - also youre looking at it in the wrong way, it shouldnt be "20 years ago they said wed be freezing now" it should be looking at the improvements being made all the time and how were now very accurate.
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    that is his point, we dont predict weather, but we have succesfully predicted most changes in climate so far - also youre looking at it in the wrong way, it shouldnt be "20 years ago they said wed be freezing now" it should be looking at the improvements being made all the time and how were now very accurate.
    You cant judge whether those are even improvements or not until the actual time about which the predictions are made comes around. As far as predicting most changes goes, how come we did not predict the floods in Mumbai and New Orleans, the rise in temperatures in Delhi(we didn't predict them), the annually increasing rains in Mumbai(which subsequently shut down the city for 2 days). What was said in the last 2 cases was "there will be climate change", but what exactly that climate change would be there was left as an open question.
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    how come we did not predict the floods in Mumbai and New Orleans
    By predict how far in advanced do you mean, in the case of New Orleans the fall of Katrina certainly wasn't a surprise event.

    On a longer term predictions scientists have been saying for years that CC will cause increased Hurricane intensity and extreme rain conditions.
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    By predict how far in advanced do you mean, in the case of New Orleans the fall of Katrina certainly wasn't a surprise event.

    On a longer term predictions scientists have been saying for years that CC will cause increased Hurricane intensity and extreme rain conditions.
    Yes, what they havent done is be precise enough to say when and where. They have usually said "this and this will happen" but not precisely when and where. As far as New Orleans goes, if they knew in advance(around an year back, which seeing that models supposedly predict climate for the next 100 years is not at all unreasonable), how come they didnt tell anyone an year or 2 before it actually happened?
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    Yes, what they havent done is be precise enough to say when and where. They have usually said "this and this will happen" but not precisely when and where. As far as New Orleans goes, if they knew in advance(around an year back, which seeing that models supposedly predict climate for the next 100 years is not at all unreasonable), how come they didnt tell anyone an year or 2 before it actually happened?
    What you are referring to is predicting the weather not the climate, two totally different things.

    Climate - The long-term average weather pattern of a region.

    Weather - The instantaneous conditions or short term changes of atmospheric conditions at a point

    The climate forecasts are general predictions, average conditions, they don't include specific events because to do that you would have to know essentially every single possible variable that could change the temperature, humidity, insolation, wind, pressure etc... Then you would have to use an impossibly large computer to build an exact model of the atmosphere (of course exact being impossible) to run forecasts of it because any slight change would put the exact output of.

    What climate models do is provide trends, there is x% increase in chance that a storm could strike here or there is x% increase in the chance of having a drought there etc...
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    Yes, what they havent done is be precise enough to say when and where. They have usually said "this and this will happen" but not precisely when and where. As far as New Orleans goes, if they knew in advance(around an year back, which seeing that models supposedly predict climate for the next 100 years is not at all unreasonable), how come they didnt tell anyone an year or 2 before it actually happened?

    but what would be the point in predicting specific things in specific places when we know the whole world will be effected .......

    you still have absolutely no comprehension of climate and weather

    weather - rain tomorrow

    climate - everyone drowning in 100 years

    you dont think the prediction that if we dont change the earth is going to be screwed is good enough? and that is basically a climate prediction, and has been shown.
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    What climate models do is provide trends, there is x% increase in chance that a storm could strike here or there is x% increase in the chance of having a drought there etc...
    And did the same climate models say anything about chances of events like floods happening in or around a certain year(s) in/around certain large areas? If according to you it is impossible to monitor every factor, would short term changes not have effects on long term ones, hence meaning that without accounting for short term changes we could never talk of long term ones?
    but what would be the point in predicting specific things in specific places when we know the whole world will be effected .......
    You dont know the whole world is going to be effected, you are predicting it using certain models. And I am questioning that prediction.
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    And did the same climate models say anything about chances of events like floods happening in or around a certain year(s) in/around certain large areas? If according to you it is impossible to monitor every factor, would short term changes not have effects on long term ones, hence meaning that without accounting for short term changes we could never talk of long term ones?

    You dont know the whole world is going to be effected, you are predicting it using certain models. And I am questioning that prediction.
    either open your ears or go troll on another forum.

    climate has been predicted fairly successfully - predictions, warming of the world, global sea rise, increase in tropical storms etc.

    they are not predicted to the day years in advance as global warming isnt affecting the day they occur on, it enhances them and makes them more likely to occur

    they are then predicted with a day or so's notice, but they are only more likely due to global warming, so a prediction of global warming cannot predict when to the day this sort of thing will happen


    sort out the difference between climate and weather or stop trolling.
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    either open your ears or go troll on another forum.
    Now now, dont get so bothered. Not everyone who questions your views has to be a troll. Relax.

    climate has been predicted fairly successfully - predictions, warming of the world, global sea rise, increase in tropical storms etc.
    Claim in dispute cannot be used as statement.

    they are not predicted to the day years in advance as global warming isnt affecting the day they occur on, it enhances them and makes them more likely to occur

    they are then predicted with a day or so's notice, but they are only more likely due to global warming, so a prediction of global warming cannot predict when to the day this sort of thing will happen
    Were any of the floods I mentioned predicted even within an year?
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    Now now, dont get so bothered. Not everyone who questions your views has to be a troll. Relax.



    Claim in dispute cannot be used as statement.



    Were any of the floods I mentioned predicted even within an year?

    the only person disputing it is you, and you havent shown any argument against it apart from your lack of knowledge about climate

    a year is not climate!!!!!!!!!!! the climate was predicted. officially climate is something like the 30 year average, and seeing the prediction was correct to within 10 years thay have predicted climate

    officialy climate is something like a 30 year average




    lets put it this way - groups of countries have been assigned a climate accordingly e.g. the british climate, mediterranian.

    can this climates be reflected by one year?
    seeing as weve had a much colder than usual winter this year id say no but you can disagree if you want with some random comment that has nothing to do with the point anyone made
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    a year is not climate!!!!!!!!!!! the climate was predicted. officially climate is something like the 30 year average, and seeing the prediction was correct to within 10 years thay have predicted climate

    officialy climate is something like a 30 year average
    No one predicted the floods in Mumbai(or the torrential rainfalls which have been getting worse every year) or the rising temperatures in Delhi(the average going up over the last 5 years) at any time. They happened.
    Even putting that aside, what factors do we have to say that the climate is continously going to be what the models say it will be and the current rise in temperature over the last 30 odd years is not just a one-off event, like an exceptionally cold winter? If you are going to argue that climate changes are long term and around a 30 year average, surely you have to use data at a large scale(like the last 10000 years) and the curve has to go up over a significantly large period of time(like the last 2000 years). Does it do so? Look at the link below
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:20...Comparison.png
    It shows temperature change over a very small time scale and temperatures only seem to go up towards the very end of the graph. Taking into consideration your argument that the climate can only said to change if taken over a large period of time, clearly the time scale is not large enough on that graph to draw any conclusions and for all you and I know, it could be a small anomaly and not climate change.
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    (Original post by ish90an)
    No one predicted the floods in Mumbai(or the torrential rainfalls which have been getting worse every year) or the rising temperatures in Delhi(the average going up over the last 5 years) at any time. They happened.
    Even putting that aside, what factors do we have to say that the climate is continously going to be what the models say it will be and the current rise in temperature over the last 30 odd years is not just a one-off event, like an exceptionally cold winter? If you are going to argue that climate changes are long term and around a 30 year average, surely you have to use data at a large scale(like the last 10000 years) and the curve has to go up over a significantly large period of time(like the last 2000 years). Does it do so? Look at the link below
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:20...Comparison.png
    It shows temperature change over a very small time scale and temperatures only seem to go up towards the very end of the graph. Taking into consideration your argument that the climate can only said to change if taken over a large period of time, clearly the time scale is not large enough on that graph to draw any conclusions and for all you and I know, it could be a small anomaly and not climate change.
    you have absolutely no understanding of climate or weather in any way

    go look up the cold periods in the quaternary and holocen, and the reason why it occurred rather than just reeling off a web page that you probably dont understand anyway

    then i will point out what you want to know

    so just a list or reason why people beleive those cold periods were caused - hint, look up milankovitch.
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    global warming = climate change

    ahh now the scientist are right whether the planet cools or gets hotter.

    also there is no proof, we do not have the technology yet. maans hockey stick graph was given at the kyoto meeting and later proven wrong.

    the truth is the climate is too big too predict or determine the cause of temperature fluctuations. even the weather forecasters cannot predict the temperature.
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    (Original post by robin22391)
    global warming = climate change

    ahh now the scientist are right whether the planet cools or gets hotter.

    also there is no proof, we do not have the technology yet. maans hockey stick graph was given at the kyoto meeting and later proven wrong.

    the truth is the climate is too big too predict or determine the cause of temperature fluctuations. even the weather forecasters cannot predict the temperature.
    i actually had a lecture on the maans prediction and the ipcc meeting about it. It was part of a lecture about the effects of scientific data on uneducated people, and the point brought up - uneducated people thought "maans graph was wrong"

    thats not entirely true, infact its not true at all. many people saw a set of data and said it disproves maans theory etc. etc. all these convergent lines go against it blah blah blah, when his curve was part of the data anyway - so it had to corellate as it was his data, but meh

    you too need to learn the difference between weather and climate

    also look up the 1990 prediction for climate, which fits in very nicely with our current climate before saying it cannot be done. thats like saying noone can invent the wheel, its allready been done
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    predicting the climate hasnt been done it is impossible with todays technology...(and i mean computers and graphs)how could you put data into a primitive computer along with a THEORY and get reasonable results when the earth is so complex. they did not predict the emergence of certain algae in the oceans which have been shown to dramatically take in co2.
    also as the "non believers" say show me the evidence... please
    most of it is scientifically wrong and bad practice there is way too many variables( and i know how to conduct an experiment) . co2 may very well be a climate effecting gas but we cannot predict the earths balancing equilibria effects. when plants formed coal their carbon was trapped now we are releasing it and then plants will take it back and so on.
    unprovable thats my conclusion.
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    (Original post by robin22391)
    predicting the climate hasnt been done it is impossible with todays technology...(and i mean computers and graphs)how could you put data into a primitive computer along with a THEORY and get reasonable results when the earth is so complex. they did not predict the emergence of certain algae in the oceans which have been shown to dramatically take in co2.
    also as the "non believers" say show me the evidence... please
    most of it is scientifically wrong and bad practice there is way too many variables( and i know how to conduct an experiment) . co2 may very well be a climate effecting gas but we cannot predict the earths balancing equilibria effects. when plants formed coal their carbon was trapped now we are releasing it and then plants will take it back and so on.
    unprovable thats my conclusion.
    Predicting climate with computer simulations is by no means impossible. It is very very difficult, as you need to first identify, then introduce as many parameters as possible, each requiring more computing power and time to run. The further into the future we try to look, the less accurate we will be, hence uncertainties on climate models increase with time. This is down to chaos theory, though.

    It's not impossible though.
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    impossible (given that we dont have a thousand years) to predict based on todays technology.
    if the computer is based on an assumption of anthropogenic climate change the results could be skewed.
    too many variables...butterfly flapps its wings.
    i guess its like predicting the path of an electron.

    also are we not coming out of an ice age and so this could skew data.
    its hard finding a balance between natural and man made changes.
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    (Original post by robin22391)
    impossible (given that we dont have a thousand years) to predict based on todays technology.
    if the computer is based on an assumption of anthropogenic climate change the results could be skewed.
    too many variables...butterfly flapps its wings.
    i guess its like predicting the path of an electron.

    also are we not coming out of an ice age and so this could skew data.
    its hard finding a balance between natural and man made changes.
    Argh your posts are nonsensical. Even if there is a point in there I'm neither willing nor able to decipher it.
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    im writing in code...or maybe you just dont understand the topic enough.
    do you know what anthropogenic means?
    do you know what an electron is?
    or is it
    my crazy writing
    patterns that.........................con fuse you??????
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    I do; I do; I do; it is.
 
 
 
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