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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    And how did you get that from stating the obvious: Wolfe is favourite by a mile, and what is clear to anybody even vaguely astute: the less time UKIP spend on these sorts of things the more time they can spend trying to convince people they should be the new opposition to the Tories.
    Diane James was libertarian. Steven Woolfe is pretty much Theresa May ideologically.

    May has already turned the tories into UKIP, *what would be the point in the two main parties being identical to one another? Then parliament just becomes an echo chamber.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    I get why they're able to do it, I just don't even begin to understand why they would. It's not like having fewer Chinese student mulling around in big cities is going to make the anti-immigration people happy: most of them won't even notice. In any case, most of the sentiment is about foreigners either "taking our jobs" or "stealing our benefits": so we're going to get rid of the ones who aren't allowed to work OR claim benefits and put tens of thousands of pounds per year each into the economy, a huge portion of it straight into public coffers?! I fail to see a single upside of it and I'm bitterly disappointed that we've moved from the bad of anti-immigration rhetoric to the disastrous of appeasing it with completely irrational policy.
    You're right, but do you think that Theresa May cares one bit about the long term strategy? Of course not. Its simply about doing what she thinks will be popular in an increasingly UKIP country.


    Nigel Farage may have stepped down but he appears to be running the country at the moment. *
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    You're right, but do you think that Theresa May cares one bit about the long term strategy? Of course not. Its simply
    About doing what she thinks will be popular in an increasingly UKIP country.


    Nigel Farage may have stepped down but he appears to be running the country at the moment. *
    No ****ing backbone whatsoever. It's so frustrating - if we were willing to be even slightly pragmatic Labour could run rings around this shambles. Why does it have to be now that we get the bloody comrade
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    Lol David Cameron 500-1 to be next UKIP leader.

    That would be quite fun.*
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    You're right, but do you think that Theresa May cares one bit about the long term strategy? Of course not. Its simply
    About doing what she thinks will be popular in an increasingly UKIP country.


    Nigel Farage may have stepped down but he appears to be running the country at the moment. *
    The world actually, with his involvement with Trump

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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Diane James was libertarian. Steven Woolfe is pretty much Theresa May ideologically.

    May has already turned the tories into UKIP, *what would be the point in the two main parties being identical to one another? Then parliament just becomes an echo chamber.
    Just wait until Corbyn manages to sit it out until 2020 and the moderates still don't have the spines or courage to break away.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Just wait until Corbyn manages to sit it out until 2020 and the moderates still don't have the spines or courage to break away.
    To paraphrase Benn.. '1983 was a historic success for British socialists'. One can imagine the comrade saying something similar about 2020.
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    Bornblue


    Seems we already have an opposition too busy pinching the Tory's lines

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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Lol David Cameron 500-1 to be next UKIP leader.

    That would be quite fun.*
    You couldn't make it up. Single issue party cannot agree amongst itself about its organisation. I assume Steven Woolfe will get his nomination papers sent in time and so he might be elected. In any case, surely UKIP should be concentrating on job searching given their MEPs now know when they lose their income?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Hopefully. *Right now the tories and UKIP are identical.
    I'm quite liking the Tory government at the moment...

    They're not really like UKIP. Taking Britain out of the single market wasn't predicted by myself. I assumed that the Tories would elect a leader favouring single market access to border controls, so this leaves a few years to sort out trade deals, probably not enough time though. Other than that they're doing everything right, still cutting the deficit, still lowering taxes, investing in homes for people too but doing all in such a made rate and sensible fashion.

    When Theresa wins in 2020 (if she's still leader) I look forward to seeing what she does then.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    I'm quite liking the Tory government at the moment...

    They're not really like UKIP. Taking Britain out of the single market wasn't predicted by myself. I assumed that the Tories would elect a leader favouring single market access to border controls, so this leaves a few years to sort out trade deals, probably not enough time though. Other than that they're doing everything right, still cutting the deficit, still lowering taxes, investing in homes for people too but doing all in such a made rate and sensible fashion.

    When Theresa wins in 2020 (if she's still leader) I look forward to seeing what she does then.

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    You do realise trade deals don't take long when the EU isn't involved?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You do realise trade deals don't take long when the EU isn't involved?

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    We have about 3 years, it may be enough time, but there's no guarantee.

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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    I'm quite liking the Tory government at the moment...

    They're not really like UKIP. Taking Britain out of the single market wasn't predicted by myself. I assumed that the Tories would elect a leader favouring single market access to border controls, so this leaves a few years to sort out trade deals, probably not enough time though. Other than that they're doing everything right, still cutting the deficit, still lowering taxes, investing in homes for people too but doing all in such a made rate and sensible fashion.

    When Theresa wins in 2020 (if she's still leader) I look forward to seeing what she does then.

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    What's the difference between May and UKIP? Had Nigel Farage been running the tories since the referendum there would have been little difference policy wise. Wants a hard brexit, really curbing immigration, tough on crime, committing strongly to defence etc, grammar schools introduction etc.

    *May is taking the tories back to the 60s, hard right socially but far more protectionist and less keen on the free market economically.*

    That's why UKIP will struggle. How do they distinguish themselves from a Tory party who is copying them?*

    Also much of May's economic policy is far closer to Ed Miliband than to Cameron.*

    I'd prefer UKIP to finally become an all out libertarian party now.
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    (Original post by Lime-man)
    We have about 3 years, it may be enough time, but there's no guarantee.

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    If I were to guess, most pre formal stuff will be done with most countries that showed interest by the end of Q1 along with having half a dozen teams on loan from various countries. By the end of next year all the countries we already have agreements with through the EU will have better agreements negotiated by the end of next year. New countries more variable, some by the end of next year, some by brexit, some by the end of the decade.

    One thing we can be certain of is we will hear about what's going on, if formal talks begin with anyone big we will know about it, it will be a bit more open than TTIP, and we will definitely know when it's sat in a draw waiting for exit.
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    The beeb continue to act questionably under the law yet again completely ignoring increases in growth forecasts out of recession when mere months ago they certainly didn't ignore the opposite, along with their general "there is absolutely nothing possibly even near good that could come from brexit." Neutrality my arse.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    You do realise trade deals don't take long when the EU isn't involved?

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    Except they do. Any trade deal we sign will almost certainly need to extend to services for it to be valuable for the UK, and there's little precedent for that kind of deal, especially without free movement of people (naturally, movement of workers and movement of services are intrinsically linked). To avoid catastrophic economic damage, we either need a few large trade deals on the scale of the EU (which will be extremely difficult to negotiate), or 30-40 smaller ones. We also need to make sure all of these deals are compatible, which isn't easy.

    Let's look at the evidence:

    NAFTA: 2 years
    TPP: 7 years and counting
    TTIP: something between 8 and 24 years, depending on the specifics
    SADC: anything between about 10 and 20 years depending on interpretation, still hasn't reached final form
    COMESA: no real data on origins, at least 13 years to reach its current form
    EAC: slow development over the course of 80-90 years

    Insufficient trade agreements which aren't sufficiently extensive to be comparable include:

    TRIPS: 1 year
    Shanghai FTZ: 2 years

    Something similar to what is the bare minimum we need:

    WTO: something between 10 and 60 years, depending on interpretation
    EU: 28 years to reach something comparable to current form

    Even small, two-party trade agreements take a long time. The US-Australia FTA took 3 years. The Japan-Thailand agreement took 3 years and 13 for full implementation.

    It's silly and unrealistic to expect anything less than at least 20 years as a timescale.
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    Good speech so far.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Good speech so far.
    I can't understand how free marketeers are getting behind May.

    The economic side of her speech today could have been given by Ed Miliband. In fact many of this weeks policies and phrases *such as 'mild austerity', speaking of the ills of capitalism, migration impact fund, scrapping restraint of the chronically disabled, going after tax dodgers hard, 'a Britain that works for the many not the few' *etc are pretty much ripped straight from Labour's 2015 manifesto.

    She's like a mixture between Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage.*
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    IMG_0049.PNG

    Lol*
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I can't understand how free marketeers are getting behind May.

    The economic side of her speech today could have been given by Ed Miliband. In fact many of this weeks policies and phrases *such as 'mild austerity', speaking of the ills of capitalism, migration impact fund, scrapping restraint of the chronically disabled, going after tax dodgers hard, 'a Britain that works for the many not the few' *etc are pretty much ripped straight from Labour's 2015 manifesto.

    She's like a mixture between Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage.*
    That may be because you may be imagining free marketeers as the Labour stereotype.

    Believing in the supremacy of the market over government is not about believing in some ancap vision, it's about believing in low taxes, competitive markets and generally private ownership of the means of production. It's entirely possible that within that space you can give the market a kick up the ass in a certain direction or restructure a market to make it competitive.

    These days i think that tax and spend are probably more important to people like myself than keeping government out of doing anything.
 
 
 
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