The Commons Bar Mk XIII - MHoC Chat Thread

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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Would you say we're at that point already if the policies in the Autumn Statement match the much-changed rhetoric on fiscal policy?
    I'll have to go back and look at the manifesto again, but I would expect we're certainly in a position where May should be considering it, even if it's just used as an opportunity to bolster her majority.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    I don't want it blocked, not if Parliament votes for it. What I dislike is a prime minister doing things without putting them to parliament when she has no mandate to do them.

    *I'm not saying we shouldn't leave the single market. I'm saying that it should be subject to a parliamentary vote. That's democracy, the very thing you claim so much to love. The referendum established that we must rescind our EU membership.
    * We voted to leave the EU and we will leave the EU, but why should the PM get to unilaterally decide the exit terms after we have left without parliamentary scrutiny or approval? We didn't vote on the exit terms. * Parliamentary scrutiny is one of the founding principles of our democracy.*
    Pray tell then on what basis she does not have the mandate?
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Pray tell then on what basis she does not have the mandate?
    Quite simple really. Parliamentary sovereignty.

    *The question on the referendum ballot paper concerned our membership of the EU. We voted we didn't want to be a member of the EU and therefore she does not need a parliamentary vote to withdraw membership.

    However there was no referendum on single market membership, our future relationship with the EU or immigration controls. Thus any decision May makes on those should be put to Parliament.

    Do you think it's good for democracy that the PM can make such hugely important decisions and bypass Parliament? Why should Parliament not be able to scrutinise the edit arrangements? Where is her mandate to unilaterally declare the exit arrangements without parliamentary approval ? *

    So pray, tell me how she does have the mandate to determine the exit arrangements without putting them to Parliament.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Quite simple really. Parliamentary sovereignty.

    *The question on the referendum ballot paper concerned our membership of the EU. We voted we didn't want to be a member of the EU and therefore she does not need a parliamentary vote to withdraw membership.

    However there was no referendum on single market membership, our future relationship with the EU or immigration controls. Thus any decision May makes on those should be put to Parliament.

    Do you think it's good for democracy that the PM can make such hugely important decisions and bypass Parliament? Why should Parliament not be able to scrutinise the edit arrangements? Where is her mandate to unilaterally declare the exit arrangements without parliamentary approval ? *

    So pray, tell me how she does have the mandate to determine the exit arrangements without putting them to Parliament.
    Ummm, her mandate is in 650 election results on 7/5/2015 and internal party election procedures, along with her prerogative powers, the exact same mandate (bar dates, numbers, and the internal procedure specifics) that built it all up in the first place.

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I'll have to go back and look at the manifesto again, but I would expect we're certainly in a position where May should be considering it, even if it's just used as an opportunity to bolster her majority.
    Personally I'd argue that the formal manifesto is actually less relevant than the general message they gave to the public, considering how few read it and how poor media 'analysis' is - but either way it certainly didn't feature increased state intervention, the abolition of deficit targets and borrowing to invest. In fact the rhetoric is closer to the Miliband school of thought the electorate rejected than Osborne's classical liberalism, but we'll see what happens in practice.

    I guess the only risk is that without the boundary changes, there's always the potential for a shock. Not on a Labour majority scale, sure. But last year you won by 6.5% and got a majority of 12. Is it completely impossible, if unlikely, to imagine some combination of following factors occurring?:

    Corbyn's new shadow cabinet proving semi-functional
    Complacency reducing Tory turnout
    A Lib Dem revival fuelled by annoyed pro-European Tories (who perhaps really don't want Corbyn to be Prime Minister, but just don't think it's ever gonna happen anyway)
    Eurosceptic Tories who again aren't scared by Labour cause they think Corbyn can't win voting UKIP to pressure May into a 'hard Brexit'
    Labour's 30.5% proving to be a pretty resilient core vote
    Most of the ~3-4% of Greens currently showing up on opinion polls ending up voting for Corbyn's Labour in practice

    I'm not saying it'll happen, but there's a risk that some of those things come to fruition and perhaps the result is unexpectedly close - maybe the Tories only win by 4%. Suddenly you've got a hung parliament, and depending on exactly how the seats break down you have the closed-doors meeting between Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon. It's a low-probability scenario, but when the consequence could be from a Tory perspective a disastrous defeat with a total lunatic in Number 10 and the UK broken apart is it really one you want to take?
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    There's no reason why that shouldn't be put to Parliament. She has every right to revoke membership of EU but future arrangements should not be conducted using the prerogative, it's an abuse of power.

    May has the mandate to rescind membership, she does not have the mandate to unilaterally determine the exit arrangements.*
    **
    It sounds like your being too literal in what you think the electorate wanted. They wanted sovereignty and they wanted free movement abolished, unless Europe caves then that means withdraw from the single market and the executive is perfectly capable of making that judgment,

    It also sounds like you want parliament to vote beforehand to guide the executive in negotiations. I think that is a very bad idea given vested interests. Parliament should only have its say afterward.

    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Would you say we're at that point already if the policies in the Autumn Statement match the much-changed rhetoric on fiscal policy?
    If it's a few billion here or there then no. If they scrap all cuts announced by Osbourne to 2020 and let the deficit increase by £10bn or so for a few years then yeah, probably.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Personally I'd argue that the formal manifesto is actually less relevant than the general message they gave to the public, considering how few read it and how poor media 'analysis' is - but either way it certainly didn't feature increased state intervention, the abolition of deficit targets and borrowing to invest. In fact the rhetoric is closer to the Miliband school of thought the electorate rejected than Osborne's classical liberalism, but we'll see what happens in practice.

    I guess the only risk is that without the boundary changes, there's always the potential for a shock. Not on a Labour majority scale, sure. But last year you won by 6.5% and got a majority of 12. Is it completely impossible, if unlikely, to imagine some combination of following factors occurring?:

    Corbyn's new shadow cabinet proving semi-functional
    Complacency reducing Tory turnout
    A Lib Dem revival fuelled by annoyed pro-European Tories (who perhaps really don't want Corbyn to be Prime Minister, but just don't think it's ever gonna happen anyway)
    Eurosceptic Tories who again aren't scared by Labour cause they think Corbyn can't win voting UKIP to pressure May into a 'hard Brexit'
    Labour's 30.5% proving to be a pretty resilient core vote
    Most of the ~3-4% of Greens currently showing up on opinion polls ending up voting for Corbyn's Labour in practice

    I'm not saying it'll happen, but there's a risk that some of those things come to fruition and perhaps the result is unexpectedly close - maybe the Tories only win by 4%. Suddenly you've got a hung parliament, and depending on exactly how the seats break down you have the closed-doors meeting between Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon. It's a low-probability scenario, but when the consequence could be from a Tory perspective a disastrous defeat with a total lunatic in Number 10 and the UK broken apart is it really one you want to take?
    Most of those things are irrelevant.

    With the voting UKIP, I live in one of those sorts of constituency, and the swing you're looking at is simply absurd when comparing to polling shifts and where the votes are more likely coming from for ukip (northern cities)

    On the matter or complacency, if there is one thing Tory voters are good at it's actually voting, and I would imagine the Tory swing voter isn't going to be too bad anyway, especially if the message is drilled home that complacency means the unholy alliance of Corbyn and Sturgeon. I would also say that deals with the Lib Dem side, further, if that were reasonable we would have actually seen this fight back lib dems keep trying to convince themselves is happening.

    As for the shadow cabinet, even if it is semi functional it had the issue of becoming increasingly devoid of moderates making it possibly worse than a dysfunctional one given the backbencher problem probably isn't going to go away

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Most of those things are irrelevant.

    With the voting UKIP, I live in one of those sorts of constituency, and the swing you're looking at is simply absurd when comparing to polling shifts and where the votes are more likely coming from for ukip (northern cities)

    On the matter or complacency, if there is one thing Tory voters are good at it's actually voting, and I would imagine the Tory swing voter isn't going to be too bad anyway, especially if the message is drilled home that complacency means the unholy alliance of Corbyn and Sturgeon. I would also say that deals with the Lib Dem side, further, if that were reasonable we would have actually seen this fight back lib dems keep trying to convince themselves is happening.

    As for the shadow cabinet, even if it is semi functional it had the issue of becoming increasingly devoid of moderates making it possibly worse than a dysfunctional one given the backbencher problem probably isn't going to go away

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    Those are the two goals for you in an early election scenario. Avoid complacency at all costs, and hope that Labour's "moderates" would rather lose than win under Corbyn. If you were to fail on both grounds, I think there is room for things to be closer than you'd like.

    Just had a playaround on Electoral Calculus using 2015 boundaries for interest's sake.

    Hypothetical scenario where an election's called, and the swings are:

    Tories -4%
    Labour -1%
    Greens -2%
    UKIP +2%
    Lib Dems +5%

    You end up with a very, very hung parliament. A "left bloc" of Labour, SNP, Green and Plaid hold 306 seats, whilst a "right bloc" of Tories and UKIP hold 308 (3 of those being Kippers). In the middle you get 18 Lib Dems, the NI mob, and the poor old Speaker who's job I certainly don't envy in that situation! In effect you get Tim Farron as Kingmaker asked to choose between a deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe, and another deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    It sounds like your being too literal in what you think the electorate wanted. They wanted sovereignty and they wanted free movement abolished, unless Europe caves then that means withdraw from the single market and the executive is perfectly capable of making that judgment,

    It also sounds like you want parliament to vote beforehand to guide the executive in negotiations. I think that is a very bad idea given vested interests. Parliament should only have its say afterward.



    If it's a few billion here or there then no. If they scrap all cuts announced by Osbourne to 2020 and let the deficit increase by £10bn or so for a few years then yeah, probably.
    *People voted leave for a variety of reasons, some wanted a hard brexit, some wanted soft. It's not for May, a remainer, to pretend she knows exactly why everyone chose to leave.

    You don't seem to realise that all we voted for was to rescind membership. Not to leave the single market.

    It's amazing how all those people who claimed to hate the EU because of democracy are now in favour of a prime minister, who wasn't elected on any manifesto, unilaterally determining and forcing through the exit negotiations without a Parliamentary vote.
    **
    Also I am not against May making arrangements, what I am against is her forcing them through without a Parliamentary vote. That goes against the very principle of Parliamentary sovereignty.

    As someone who loves our country, I'm surprised you think it's acceptable for
    A prime minister to completely bypass Parliamentary scrutiny and approval. * I had hoped the days of a leader making law by decree were over.*
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ummm, her mandate is in 650 election results on 7/5/2015 and internal party election procedures, along with her prerogative powers, the exact same mandate (bar dates, numbers, and the internal procedure specifics) that built it all up in the first place.

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    *
    Pray tell me how the prerogative allows a PM to enforce through a treaty into law (which the exit arrangements will be) without ratification by Parliament?
    *
    You don't seem to know what the word mandate means, or have an understanding of the prerogative.

    The prerogative allows the PM to conduct foreign treaties and to sign them but they do not take effect on English law unless they are ratified by Parliament. It has always been that way. Parliament is ultimately sovereign, not the Prime Minister.

    * Her mandate allows her to be leader of the party and to be Prime Minister. That mandate does not allow her bypass Parliament in enforcing the exit arrangements. Any treaty is subject to a parliamentary vote to take force. That's a basic concept of British and international law, of which you seem unaware.


    Again, we voted to leave and we should leave without the neees for parliamentary approval. Anything after that should require our elected representatives to scrutinise and approve.*

    It's incredibly frustrating to come accross people who simply have no concept or notion of how international law works. *
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    Nigel Farage comparing Donald Trump to Harambe :emo: a silverback gorilla after the debate :lol:
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    Whistleblower guardian role has gone to a former NHS England manager, other representatives have pointed out the conflict of interest and have raised issues with how independent the body is.

    Rather like the Tory shill appointed to the head of the GMC, but what do I know.

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    Good job, Donald Trump:yy:
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Those are the two goals for you in an early election scenario. Avoid complacency at all costs, and hope that Labour's "moderates" would rather lose than win under Corbyn. If you were to fail on both grounds, I think there is room for things to be closer than you'd like.

    Just had a playaround on Electoral Calculus using 2015 boundaries for interest's sake.

    Hypothetical scenario where an election's called, and the swings are:

    Tories -4%
    Labour -1%
    Greens -2%
    UKIP +2%
    Lib Dems +5%

    You end up with a very, very hung parliament. A "left bloc" of Labour, SNP, Green and Plaid hold 306 seats, whilst a "right bloc" of Tories and UKIP hold 308 (3 of those being Kippers). In the middle you get 18 Lib Dems, the NI mob, and the poor old Speaker who's job I certainly don't envy in that situation! In effect you get Tim Farron as Kingmaker asked to choose between a deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe, and another deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe.
    That hypothetical terrifies me xD

    The DUP and probably the UUP would go with BluKip and put them a few off a majority (maybe around 10 off?)


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    Ignoring the fact that the chances of Ukip gaining votes and the Tories losing votes is near zero without a massive shock to the economy (Brexit has not delivered it) i'd actually say that i'd be very happy with a Tory minority government alone.

    If like me you take the view that a lot of what government does is needless then having a government that can't do much is actually rather attractive. Convention would still allow budgets to pass and the royal prerogative would deal with any foreign policy issues.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Ignoring the fact that the chances of Ukip gaining votes and the Tories losing votes is near zero without a massive shock to the economy (Brexit has not delivered it) i'd actually say that i'd be very happy with a Tory minority government alone.

    If like me you take the view that a lot of what government does is needless then having a government that can't do much is actually rather attractive. Convention would still allow budgets to pass and the royal prerogative would deal with any foreign policy issues.
    17 point Tory lead in latest poll. That minority government doesn't look like happening any time soon.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    17 point Tory lead in latest poll. That minority government doesn't look like happening any time soon.
    Good lord.

    Can't say i'm too displeased at the prospect of a May super majority though.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Good lord.

    Can't say i'm too displeased at the prospect of a May super majority though.
    Its awful for democracy to have no opposition. Then governments get incredibly complacent.


    What actually seems more likely is that the opposition will come from the moderates inside the Tory party like Morgan, Osborne, soubry etc.*
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Its awful for democracy to have no opposition. Then governments get incredibly complacent.

    What actually seems more likely is that the opposition will come from the moderates inside the Tory party like Morgan, Osborne, soubry etc.*
    All parties have people that will vote against them but as with Blair you tend to find that all the new MP's agree with what the leader wants to do.
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    ELECTION ELECTION !
 
 
 
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